OTT beat BOS 4–1. Expected goals were close to even (OTT 2.5, BOS 2.3), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Tim Stützle scored short-handed at 7:39 of the first, moving OTT’s win probability from 46% to 63%. Jeremy Swayman allowed 1.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–BOS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:39 | OTT | Tim StützleSH from Michael Amadio | 1–0 | 46% → 63% |
| P1 9:22 | OTT | Tim Stützle unassisted | 2–0 | 63% → 77% |
| P2 1:06 | OTT | Drake Batherson from Tim Stützle | 3–0 | 81% → 93% |
| P2 5:19 | OTT | Michael Amadio from Shane Pinto, Nick Cousins | 4–0 | 94% → 99% |
| P3 3:30 | BOS | James Hagens unassisted | 4–1 | 0% → 2% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Stützle C | 18:56 | 2 | 1 | +1.42 | +0.05 | +0.99 | +0.23 | −0.02 | +0.17 | +0.00 |
| Michael Amadio R | 15:44 | 1 | 1 | +0.45 | +0.06 | +0.29 | +0.08 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Drake Batherson R | 15:11 | 1 | +0.32 | −0.02 | +0.37 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Cousins C | 10:58 | 1 | +0.17 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.17 | −0.01 | |
| Carter Yakemchuk D | 14:58 | +0.14 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Chabot D | 24:13 | +0.13 | +0.10 | −0.02 | +0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shane Pinto C | 17:56 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.06 | −0.12 | +0.17 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Jordan Spence D | 24:49 | +0.08 | +0.08 | −0.02 | +0.06 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Kleven D | 23:21 | +0.05 | +0.07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Warren Foegele L | 12:13 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.13 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Cameron Crotty D | 10:56 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Claude Giroux R | 14:03 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Stephen Halliday C | 9:39 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 16:42 | −0.06 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolas Matinpalo D | 20:15 | −0.11 | +0.10 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| William Eklund L | 17:53 | −0.19 | +0.07 | −0.17 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Hayden Hodgson R | 5:35 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Cozens C | 18:38 | −0.21 | +0.02 | −0.17 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark G | 40:00 | +0.59 |
| Samuel Ersson G | 20:00 | +0.01 |
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Hagens C | 13:55 | 1 | +0.14 | −0.05 | +0.38 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Fraser Minten C | 16:16 | +0.10 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.02 | ||
| JJ Peterka R | 15:20 | +0.09 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Clifton D | 19:17 | +0.05 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.09 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Poitras C | 11:28 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Tanner Jeannot L | 10:47 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Will Borgen D | 16:25 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marat Khusnutdinov C | 11:32 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Kastelic C | 10:19 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Hampus Lindholm D | 18:46 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 12:56 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Frederic Brunet D | 18:43 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 19:39 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.08 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Geekie C | 20:58 | −0.19 | −0.12 | −0.18 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.01 | ||
| Pavel Zacha C | 20:02 | −0.22 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| David Pastrnak R | 21:00 | −0.22 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Lohrei D | 21:01 | −0.23 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Lindholm C | 15:32 | −0.43 | −0.06 | −0.18 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Swayman G | 60:00 | −1.80 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.