Next games Tue 29 SepModel estimates, not official NHL statistics
puckmodel

Trade ledger · 2009 to today

Every NHL trade, graded

Each asset is scored by the goals above replacement it delivered to the team that received it: every game from the trade until he left, playoffs included, and for draft picks the player the team took with it. The winner is the team that got more of it. Trades with players still on their new team, unmatured prospects or future picks are still counting.

Trades graded2,017
Settled (nothing left to play out)1,300
Biggest winTBL +437, 2012
Biggest win, skaters onlyPHI +159, 2011

Cap space

What is cap space worth?

A salary dump trades draft picks for cap room. To price it, cap is measured in cap-%-seasons: 1% of the upper limit for one season (about $1.04M in 2026-27), above the league minimum a replacement would cost. Retained salary stays on the sender's books until the contract ends.

0.74goals above replacement a cap-%-season buys in free agency, from what UFA contracts since 2015 delivered (0.68 for skaters alone). $1M of space for one season is worth about 0.72 goals.
1.12expected goals of draft picks the median dumping team attached per cap-%-season it shed: about 1.5x what the space buys on the open market. Dumpers are mostly capped-out contenders, for whom a goal now is worth more.
39%of the 55 dumping teams since 2010-11 finished the next season below 97% of the cap. Space that is not spent is worth nothing.
DateDumped byContracts sent Picks attachedCap shed
%-seasons
Picks
E[GAR]
Space worth
goals
Next-season
cap use
2023-02VGK to ARIShea Weber2023 5th25.82.219.1118%
2011-10FLA to VANSteven Reinprecht, David Booth2013 3rd18.93.914.083%
2017-06CBJ to VGKDavid Clarkson2017 1st, 2019 2nd17.519.513.097%
2024-08CBJ to MTLPatrik Laine2026 2nd16.67.212.381%
2018-07CHI to ARIMarian Hossa, Jordan Oesterle, Vinnie Hinostroza2019 3rd16.22.112.090%
2011-06CGY to BUFRobyn Regehr, Ales Kotalik2012 2nd14.27.510.599%
2021-07NYI to ARIAndrew Ladd2022 2nd, 2023 3rd, 2021 2nd11.616.98.692%
2023-03CBJ to ARIJakub Voracek2023 6th11.12.08.278%
2025-09MTL to SJSCarey Price2026 5th10.12.07.597%
2021-07PHI to ARIShayne Gostisbehere2022 7th, 2022 2nd9.110.56.895%
2021-04FLA to CHIRiley Stillman, Brett Connolly, Henrik Borgström2021 7th8.31.46.2104%
2024-03CAR to PITVille Koivunen, Cruz Lucius, Vasily Ponomarev, Michael Bunting2024 5th, 2024 2nd7.87.65.899%
2014-02STL to BUFJaroslav Halak, Chris Stewart, William Carrier2015 1st, 2016 3rd7.516.25.599%
2022-07TOR to CHIPetr Mrázek2022 1st7.33.95.4105%

Biggest 14 of 55 dumps by cap shed. A dump sheds at least 2 cap-%-seasons net, attaches more expected pick value than it gets back, and takes back at most a quarter of the contract money it sends. Pick value is the average goals above replacement a pick at that slot gave its drafting team in the 2010-16 drafts.

Method

How trades are graded

Goals above replacement. A player's net goals in each game, minus what a replacement-level player at his position would have produced (forwards −3.4, defence −1.9 and goalies −26.5 net goals per 82 games). Goalie value is goals saved above expected against that much deeper replacement level, which is why goalies top the all-time list. Tick Skaters only to set every goalie aside.

The window. Every regular-season game for the receiving franchise from the trade until his first game for another team, so a re-signing counts and a departure ends it, plus the playoffs of each season he finished there. Arizona and Phoenix count as Utah, and Atlanta as Winnipeg.

Draft picks. Credited only if the receiving team made the pick itself; the value is what the drafted player gave that team. A pick or player traded on again is marked, and its value lives in the later trade.

Still counting. Any asset still with its team, a prospect drafted in 2022 or later, a future pick or a trade this off-season. 2009-10 trades are partial: the game data starts in 2010-11.

Salary dumps. Flagged when a team sheds at least 2 cap-%-seasons of contract, net, attaches more expected draft-pick value than it gets back and takes back at most a quarter of the money it sends. The grade itself counts goals only: the value of the cap room is in the section above.

Sources. Trade records and contracts from CapWages; draft order and pick ownership from the NHL; games and net goals from puckmodel's play-by-play model.