Projected Standings 2026-27
10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 2026-27 season over model-projected rosters: team strength from player net-goals projections (skater wins, finishing, penalty differential, goaltending GSAx), game outcomes from a calibrated win-probability model including back-to-back rest edges. Pts is the mean simulated point total (± one standard deviation across sims); playoff% is the share of sims making the playoffs; Δ compares projected league rank to the team’s actual 2025-26 finish.
| Team | Pts | Playoff% | 25-26 Pts | Δ | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 |  TBL | 98 | ±13 | 67% | 106 | ▲2 |
| 7 |  OTT | 95 | ±13 | 58% | 99 | ▲2 |
| 9 |  FLA | 94 | ±13 | 56% | 84 | ▲16 |
| 12 |  BUF | 93 | ±13 | 53% | 109 | ▼8 |
| 14 |  MTL | 92 | ±13 | 51% | 106 | ▼9 |
| 19 |  DET | 90 | ±13 | 43% | 92 | ▼2 |
| 20 |  BOS | 89 | ±13 | 42% | 100 | ▼12 |
| 21 |  TOR | 89 | ±13 | 40% | 78 | ▲7 |
| Team | Pts | Playoff% | 25-26 Pts | Δ | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 |  CAR | 99 | ±13 | 70% | 113 | ▼1 |
| 6 |  WSH | 96 | ±13 | 61% | 95 | ▲7 |
| 8 |  PIT | 94 | ±13 | 58% | 98 | ▲3 |
| 13 |  NYR | 92 | ±13 | 51% | 77 | ▲17 |
| 15 |  NJD | 92 | ±13 | 51% | 87 | ▲6 |
| 24 |  NYI | 88 | ±13 | 39% | 91 | ▼5 |
| 27 |  PHI | 86 | ±13 | 34% | 98 | ▼17 |
| 29 |  CBJ | 85 | ±13 | 29% | 92 | ▼13 |
Roster ratings by category
Projected is the simulation’s own forward-looking roster strength (projected net goals per 82, weighted by expected games) — the number the standings above are built on; the table is sorted by it. The remaining columns are each roster player’s career net goals added per 82 games (the same rates as the Players page), weighted likewise and regressed toward zero for small samples. Goaltending is the goalies’ GSAx per 82; Overall is the skater components plus goaltending. Career columns read low for teams leaning on prospects without NHL history.
| Team | Projected ▼ | Overall | EV Off | EV Def | PP | PK | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs | Goaltending |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | +28.6 | +35.3 | +31.2 | -6.9 | +4.6 | +5.0 | -10.5 | +5.4 | +0.6 | +5.9 |
 COL | +26.6 | +41.8 | +23.0 | -6.4 | +3.6 | -0.1 | +9.5 | +9.1 | -1.5 | +4.7 |
| TBL | +23.4 | +53.3 | +16.0 | -3.9 | +2.5 | +0.5 | +16.3 | +6.2 | -0.8 | +16.5 |
 EDM | +22.1 | +41.4 | +24.3 | -7.8 | +5.6 | +0.5 | +9.4 | +7.8 | -0.9 | +2.4 |
| NJD | +21.1 | +13.1 | +22.2 | -7.3 | +4.0 | +1.1 | -11.4 | +6.6 | -1.7 | -0.4 |
| WSH | +15.6 | +40.5 | +15.1 | -8.1 | +1.8 | +1.5 | +19.2 | -1.1 | -0.7 | +12.7 |
 MIN | +14.1 | +34.3 | +15.1 | +1.8 | +3.9 | -0.7 | +3.6 | +3.4 | -2.4 | +9.6 |
 VGK | +13.9 | +28.6 | +16.9 | -6.6 | +4.4 | +1.1 | +9.8 | +7.0 | -0.7 | -3.2 |
| NYR | +13.0 | +45.2 | +8.0 | -4.7 | +3.1 | +0.2 | +17.7 | -0.3 | +0.2 | +21.1 |
| OTT | +12.9 | +16.2 | +13.1 | -6.1 | +3.1 | +1.2 | -7.9 | +11.5 | -1.3 | +2.5 |
| FLA | +12.5 | +25.9 | +24.0 | -6.3 | +6.1 | +2.2 | -1.2 | +1.3 | -0.5 | +0.2 |
 DAL | +12.1 | +43.3 | +16.3 | -8.1 | +3.5 | +1.2 | +15.8 | +0.4 | +1.7 | +12.6 |
 LAK | +10.9 | +20.0 | +15.9 | -2.2 | +1.8 | +0.4 | +0.5 | +1.2 | -1.6 | +3.9 |
 UTA | +9.5 | +14.1 | +19.3 | -9.5 | +0.3 | -0.8 | +6.7 | +1.5 | -0.7 | -2.7 |
| MTL | +8.7 | +28.1 | +15.6 | -12.9 | +1.5 | -0.4 | +12.4 | +1.2 | -0.3 | +11.1 |
| BUF | +7.8 | +20.6 | +10.4 | -6.6 | -0.0 | +0.1 | +10.0 | +4.7 | -1.5 | +3.5 |
| PIT | +7.1 | +30.6 | +17.5 | -6.0 | +1.1 | +1.1 | +11.6 | +10.6 | -0.7 | -4.5 |
 NSH | +6.0 | +32.6 | +12.1 | -2.9 | +0.2 | +0.5 | +8.0 | +4.3 | +0.7 | +9.7 |
| NYI | +5.6 | +32.0 | +12.0 | -10.2 | -1.2 | -0.8 | +4.5 | +7.0 | -0.4 | +21.1 |
| BOS | +4.4 | +26.2 | +9.3 | -5.7 | +0.9 | -0.0 | +13.9 | +0.0 | -0.5 | +8.2 |
| TOR | +4.3 | +35.2 | +15.8 | -9.1 | +4.0 | -0.3 | +13.1 | +3.7 | +1.5 | +6.5 |
 WPG | +4.3 | +34.3 | +9.0 | -5.7 | +1.3 | -1.1 | +9.6 | +6.1 | -1.2 | +16.4 |
 ANA | +2.5 | +5.8 | +10.1 | -9.5 | +1.6 | -0.1 | -2.2 | +4.8 | -1.3 | +2.3 |
| PHI | +2.4 | -1.7 | +4.0 | -2.7 | -0.6 | +0.8 | -3.4 | +1.7 | -0.6 | -1.0 |
| DET | +1.4 | +10.8 | +7.6 | -9.0 | +0.4 | -0.4 | +0.1 | +9.1 | -0.1 | +3.2 |
 CGY | +0.5 | -4.2 | +2.6 | -1.2 | -1.6 | +0.5 | -6.5 | -2.9 | -0.6 | +5.5 |
| CBJ | +0.4 | +0.7 | +12.2 | -9.8 | +0.3 | +0.3 | +7.6 | -3.2 | -0.6 | -6.2 |
 STL | -1.4 | +11.6 | +7.7 | -5.9 | -3.9 | +0.3 | +12.0 | +2.3 | -1.2 | +0.3 |
 VAN | -2.6 | +16.1 | +6.5 | -6.7 | +1.1 | -0.0 | +5.1 | +9.9 | -1.6 | +1.8 |
 SJS | -4.2 | +3.4 | +12.2 | -9.0 | +0.9 | +0.7 | +7.2 | -3.0 | -1.1 | -4.4 |
 SEA | -5.0 | +5.2 | +5.6 | -2.6 | -0.7 | +0.3 | +1.1 | +7.1 | -2.0 | -3.6 |
 CHI | -6.2 | +1.6 | +6.2 | -4.6 | -0.8 | +0.0 | +1.3 | -2.6 | -1.0 | +3.0 |
Rank shown is projected league-wide finish. Projections assume 2025-26 schedule structure and current rosters; they will drift as the offseason unfolds.