UFA106 projected pts · 2nd of 32 · 81% playoffs · r/TampaBayLightning
| Rank | LW | C | RW |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd13:405v5 / gp1955v5 min tog. | Gage Goncalves+1.1 | Brayden Point+5.7 | Nikita Kucherov+15.5 |
| 3rd13:365v5 / gp2485v5 min tog. | Brandon Hagel+5.8 | Anthony Cirelli+4.7 | Jake Guentzel+2.1 |
| 14th12:155v5 / gp285v5 min tog. | Ilya Mikheyev−0.9 | Zemgus Girgensons−3.5 | Pontus Holmberg+1.6 |
| 28th | Jeffrey Viel−3.8 | Conor Geekie−2.6 | — |
| Rank | LD | RD |
|---|---|---|
| 7th15:345v5 / gp455v5 min tog. | J.J. Moser+0.4 | John Carlson+2.8 |
| 7th14:215v5 / gp4,5055v5 min tog. | Ryan McDonagh+3.6 | Erik Cernak−0.4 |
| 4th13:575v5 / gp1185v5 min tog. | Victor Hedman+1.9 | Max Crozier+0.5 |
| 2nd | Charle-Edouard D'Astous−0.7 | — |
| G1 | G2 | |
|---|---|---|
| Dennis Hildeby+3.4 | Andrei Vasilevskiy+10.9 |
Lines from the PuckPedia depth chart (lineups by Tim Hiebert, @NHL_Rosters), updated 9 Oct 2026; NHL.com’s game-day projection replaces it from the team’s next game day. The figure beside each name is his projected net goals per 84 games, the rating the standings simulation uses, and the bar runs to ±8 (a notch marks more); the pill beside each line is its league rank by that average against the other teams’ same line (hover it for the average), then the line’s average 5-on-5 ice time per game over each skater’s last 10 games (his own minutes, not time as a unit; the lines and pairs run from most to least of it) and the unit’s career 5-on-5 minutes with all of them on the ice together (regular season and playoffs since 2010-11; hover either for the detail); marks an injury with ESPN’s estimated return date (when ESPN’s date has passed or it lists none, a short assumed absence; hover the mark to see which). The simulation dresses these players (forced to 12 F / 6 D / 2 G; before a team’s first NHL.com lineup, its recent games’ lineups) and brings injured players back on their return dates, so the Proj GP column below can differ from these lines. Coaches shuffle lines by the period; treat this as the best guess going into the next game, not the final word.
Special-teams units, or who actually goes over the boards when a penalty is called, read off the shift charts of the latest games: the five skaters on the ice together most at 5 on 4 (PP1, then PP2 from everyone else), and the forward and defence pairs together most at 4 on 5. The percentage is that unit’s share of the time. A unit member who is not in the projected lineup is replaced by the second unit’s forward (or defenceman) with the most time per game in that situation, and the second unit’s open slot goes to the dressed forward (or defenceman) not on a unit with the most of it (time per game this season, pooled with last season until he has 20 games; dotted names, hover for details). Each power-play unit is drawn the way it sets up, a 1-3-1 (net front, bumper, two flanks, point) or an umbrella (net front, two flanks, two points): every unblocked power-play attempt of the last three regular seasons (2024–2026) goes to the nearest spot, each skater’s share per spot leans toward his position when he has few, and the five take the spots that fit them best together. A dashed ring means under 15 power-play attempts (his even-strength attempts count too), a dotted one none. Hover a number for his power-play attempts.
The whole roster in one table, sorted by what the model expects each player to add this season. Proj GP = games played so far plus the games the standings simulation dresses the player for (injured players from their ESPN estimated return date; goalies split 65/35 starter/backup), and Projected, his forecasted total net goals for the season on that GP basis (his projected NG/84 × Proj GP ÷ 84; each card’s “2026-27 projection” panel shows how the NG/84 was built). Overall and the component columns are the career weighted average net goals per 84 games exactly as in the last season of each card’s Career-to-date view (games-played-weighted, each component regressed toward the league mean; goalies: career GSAx/84). Team total: Projected is the sum; Overall and the components are Proj-GP-weighted team averages (components over skaters only). Click a player for his card, any column header to sort.
| Player | Pos | Proj GP | Projected ▼ | Overall | EV Off | EV Def | PP | PK | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov | F | 84 | +15.5 | +12.7 | +0.9 | -0.4 | +0.3 | +0.1 | +3.3 | +8.5 | -0.9 | +1.0 | -0.0 | -0.1 |
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | G | 55 | +7.2 | +19.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Brandon Hagel | F | 84 | +5.8 | +4.2 | +0.9 | +0.1 | +0.2 | +0.2 | +0.1 | +2.1 | -0.2 | +1.0 | -0.1 | -0.0 |
| Brayden Point | F | 84 | +5.7 | +7.6 | +0.7 | -0.2 | +0.7 | +0.1 | +2.4 | +2.6 | -0.3 | +1.5 | -0.2 | +0.3 |
| Anthony Cirelli | F | 84 | +4.7 | +5.7 | +0.6 | +0.7 | +0.4 | +0.3 | +0.0 | +0.2 | +1.8 | +1.8 | -0.2 | -0.0 |
| Ryan McDonagh | D | 84 | +3.6 | +4.8 | +0.7 | +0.2 | +0.1 | +0.4 | -0.2 | +2.0 | +0.9 | +0.7 | -0.0 | -0.0 |
| John Carlson | D | 84 | +2.8 | +4.0 | +0.3 | -0.5 | +0.6 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +3.5 | -0.9 | +0.8 | -0.0 | +0.0 |
| Jake Guentzel | F | 84 | +2.1 | +3.1 | +1.9 | -0.4 | +0.4 | +0.1 | +0.2 | +0.1 | -0.2 | +1.0 | -0.1 | +0.1 |
| Victor Hedman | D | 84 | +1.9 | +3.3 | +0.4 | -0.0 | +0.1 | +0.4 | +0.5 | +2.3 | +0.1 | -0.4 | -0.0 | +0.0 |
| Pontus Holmberg | F | 84 | +1.6 | +1.7 | -0.3 | +0.5 | +0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.8 | +0.8 | +1.6 | -0.2 | -0.0 |
| Dennis Hildeby | G | 29 | +1.1 | +3.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gage Goncalves | F | 84 | +1.1 | +1.2 | -0.1 | +0.2 | -0.1 | +0.0 | +0.1 | +0.3 | +0.8 | -0.1 | -0.0 | +0.1 |
| J.J. Moser | D | 84 | +0.4 | -1.5 | +0.1 | +0.0 | -0.3 | -0.6 | +0.1 | +0.1 | -1.6 | +0.7 | -0.0 | -0.0 |
| Dominic James 10/10 | F | 81 | +0.4 | +0.2 | -0.1 | +0.1 | +0.0 | +0.0 | +0.1 | -0.2 | -0.5 | +0.9 | +0.0 | +0.0 |
| Max Crozier | D | 1 | +0.0 | +1.3 | -0.2 | +0.3 | +0.0 | +0.0 | -0.1 | +1.3 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 |
| Jansen Harkins | F | 1 | -0.0 | -1.2 | -0.7 | +0.1 | -0.1 | +0.1 | -0.3 | -1.6 | +0.7 | +0.6 | +0.1 | +0.0 |
| Charle-Edouard D'Astous | D | 5 | -0.0 | -0.4 | +0.0 | +0.3 | +0.1 | +0.0 | +0.0 | +0.5 | +0.1 | -1.4 | -0.0 | -0.0 |
| Erik Cernak | D | 84 | -0.4 | +0.2 | -0.2 | +0.7 | +0.0 | +0.3 | -0.3 | +0.6 | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.0 | -0.0 |
| Conor Geekie | F | 26 | -0.8 | -2.0 | -0.3 | -0.0 | -0.2 | +0.0 | +0.0 | -1.0 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.0 |
| Ilya Mikheyev | F | 84 | -0.9 | +0.8 | -0.2 | +0.3 | -0.2 | +0.2 | -0.2 | -0.4 | +0.5 | +0.8 | -0.1 | -0.0 |
| Yanni Gourde 12/2 | F | 58 | -1.3 | +1.5 | +0.1 | +0.6 | -0.2 | +0.3 | +0.1 | -0.2 | +0.9 | -0.0 | -0.3 | +0.0 |
| Emil Lilleberg 10/13 | D | 80 | -3.2 | -3.4 | -0.4 | +0.3 | +0.0 | +0.0 | -0.0 | -0.2 | -2.2 | -1.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 |
| Zemgus Girgensons | F | 84 | -3.5 | -2.9 | -0.6 | +0.4 | -0.1 | -0.4 | -0.7 | -1.9 | -0.2 | +1.0 | -0.3 | +0.0 |
| Jeffrey Viel | F | 84 | -3.8 | -3.0 | +0.3 | -0.1 | +0.0 | +0.0 | -0.4 | -0.8 | -0.6 | -1.5 | -0.0 | -0.0 |
| Team total (rates: GP-weighted avg) | +39.9 | +2.80 | +0.28 | +0.13 | +0.11 | +0.08 | +0.29 | +0.98 | -0.13 | +0.52 | -0.09 | +0.02 |
More player cards: Scott Sabourin
106.2 projected points before game 4, +2.6 since the preseason projection of 103.6. Playoff odds 81% (preseason 75%).
Each point is the standings simulation (10,000 runs of the rest of the schedule, played games locked in) as it stood on the morning of that game: the mean season points, the shaded band ±1 SD (about two seasons in three finish inside it). The dashed line is the 8th-best projection in the East, a rough playoff line; the dotted line the 3rd-best in the Atlantic, the last guaranteed division spot. The strip under the chart is the results. The lower chart is the share of the 10,000 runs that make the playoffs (top three in the division or a wild card). Moves come from the results and from the model re-rating the lineup every day. Full table: Standings.
Playoffs 81% (+4.1 since the morning of Wednesday, October 7) · Stanley Cup 9.9% · Presidents’ Trophy 10.9% · likeliest first round: OTT 11%, FLA 10%, MTL 9%
| Chance | Division place | Wild card | Missed: East place | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final pts | Sims | Playoffs | Cup | Trophy | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | WC1 | WC2 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
| 129+ | 4 | 100 | 37 | 88 | 99 | 1 | |||||||||||
| 122–128 | 8 | 100 | 23 | 60 | 93 | 7 | |||||||||||
| 115–121 | 15 | 100 | 16 | 17 | 76 | 21 | 2 | ||||||||||
| 108–114 | 20 | >99 | 12 | 1 | 42 | 41 | 14 | 3 | <1 | <1 | |||||||
| 101–107 | 20 | 99 | 7 | 12 | 32 | 33 | 17 | 5 | 1 | ||||||||
| 94–100 | 16 | 78 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 25 | 20 | 23 | 15 | 5 | 2 | <1 | <1 | <1 | |||
| 87–93 | 10 | 17 | <1 | <1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 19 | 24 | 21 | 13 | 6 | 1 | <1 | |||
| 80–86 | 5 | <1 | <1 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 24 | 24 | 20 | 8 | <1 | ||||||
| ≤79 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 27 | 36 | 23 | ||||||||||
| All sims | 100 | 81 | 10 | 11 | 34 | 20 | 14 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Final pts | Playoffs | Cup | OTT | FLA | MTL | Anyone else |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 129+ | 100 | 37 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 75 |
| 122–128 | 100 | 23 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 74 |
| 115–121 | 100 | 16 | 11 | 13 | 11 | 65 |
| 108–114 | >99 | 12 | 16 | 11 | 12 | 61 |
| 101–107 | 99 | 7 | 15 | 13 | 13 | 58 |
| 94–100 | 78 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 46 |
| 87–93 | 17 | <1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 80–86 | <1 | 0 | <1 | |||
| All sims | 81 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 51 |
Every one of the standings simulation’s 10,000 seasons, split by where TBL finish: each row is one band of final point totals (Sims = the share of seasons that land there), and the rest of the row is what happened in those seasons, playoff bracket included. Rows in the same band can still miss or make it: that’s the rest of the East doing its thing, and ties go to regulation wins, then regulation plus overtime wins. Missed is the place among the conference’s eight non-playoff teams. Full league table: Standings.
Each dot is a player on the projected roster, placed at his birthplace (NHL.com; geocoded with GeoNames via Open-Meteo). Dot size = career net goals per 84 games, the Career figure in the forecast table (GP-weighted, regressed); blue is above the positional average, red below. Players born in the same town are nudged apart and a thin line points to the spot. Hold Ctrl (⌘ on a Mac) and scroll, pinch, double-click or use the buttons to zoom; drag to pan; click a dot for the player page. Map: Natural Earth.
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Rates are pooled over the window (total xG over total minutes). Power play = every own-advantage state with both goalies in; the PP1 / PP2 and PK1 / PK2 lines are 5-on-4 / 4-on-5 time only. At each game PP1 is the five skaters with the most 5-on-4 time over the window and PP2 the next five (PK1 the two forwards and two defencemen with the most 4-on-5 time, PK2 the next two of each), from the shift charts; a unit is on when 4 of its 5 (PK: 3 of its 4) are, and its rate pools the window’s games. A bigger dot marks a change of group, a point needs 2 minutes as a unit, and a hollow dot on the top edge is off the scale. Hover a chart for the players. All teams, head-coach views and tables: Team stats.
