Nikolas Matinpalo — Ottawa Senators

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Nikolas Matinpalo

D · #33 · OTT · 27

Average career stats over an 84-game season

-2

+/−

PIM

13:57

TOI/GP

0:00

PP TOI/GP

0:49

SH TOI/GP

Regular seasonPlayoffsSeasonCareer to dateRawRegressed

Season	Team	Type	GP	Box score					Net goals per 84 games											Elo	Playoffs	On-ice context						Contract
Season	Team	Type	GP	G	A	P	+/−	PIM	EV off	EV def	PP	PK	Fin	Play	Supp	Pen	FO	SO	Overall	Elo	Playoffs	Comp	Mates	Top linemates				Cap hit	% of cap	NG/84 per $M
2024-25			41	1	3	4	-2	20	-0.912:34	-1.2	+0.10:00	-0.20:01	-1.2	+0.8	+1.8	-1.7	+0.0	+0.0	-2.6	+12	+5.06 GP	-0.9	-0.3	Kleven 71%	Stützle 32%	Gaudette 31%	Batherson 28%	$0.78M	0.9%	-3.31
2025-26			50	0	5	5	-1	16	-0.814:04	+0.7	+0.10:00	-0.61:32	-2.9	+1.0	+2.0	+0.3	+0.0	+0.0	-0.2	+6	-8.84 GP	+0.1	+2.8	Jensen 29%	Zetterlund 26%	Cozens 26%	Stützle 26%	$0.88M	0.9%	-0.28
2024-25			41	1	3	4	-2	20	-0.312:34	-0.3	+0.00:00	-0.00:01	-0.1	+0.7	+1.4	-0.5	-0.0	-0.0	+0.9	+12	+5.06 GP	-0.9	-0.3	Kleven 71%	Stützle 32%	Gaudette 31%	Batherson 28%	$0.78M	0.9%	+1.16
2025-26			50	0	5	5	-1	16	-0.514:04	+0.1	+0.00:00	-0.11:32	-0.3	+0.9	+1.7	-0.2	+0.0	+0.0	+1.7	+6	-8.84 GP	+0.1	+2.8	Jensen 29%	Zetterlund 26%	Cozens 26%	Stützle 26%	$0.88M	0.9%	+1.97
2024-25			41	1	3	4	-1	20	-0.312:34	-0.1	+0.00:00	-0.00:01	-0.1	+0.2	+0.6	-0.6	-0.0	-0.0	-0.2	1515	+5.06 GP	-0.9	-0.3	Kleven 71%	Stützle 30%	Gaudette 30%	Batherson 26%	$0.83M	1.0%	-0.20
2025-26			91	1	8	9	-2	36	-0.414:04	-0.0	+0.00:00	-0.11:32	-0.3	+0.8	+1.9	-0.3	+0.0	-0.0	+1.6	1519	-0.610 GP	-0.3	+1.6	Kleven 29%	Stützle 28%	Jensen 17%	Zetterlund 16%	$0.84M	1.0%	+1.92

Season	Team	GP	Box score					Net goals per 84 games
Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−	PIM	EV off	EV def	PP	PK	Fin	Play	Supp	Pen	FO	SO	Overall
2024-25		6	0	0	0	+1	2	-2.4	+0.9	+0.6	-0.1	-0.7	+1.0	+1.8	+3.9	+0.0	+0.0	+5.0
2025-26		4	0	0	0	+1	2	+0.9	-8.6	+0.1	-0.6	-2.8	+1.3	+3.7	-2.8	+0.0	+0.0	-8.8
2024-25		6	0	0	0	+1	2	-2.4	+0.9	+0.6	-0.1	-0.7	+1.0	+1.8	+3.9	+0.0	+0.0	+5.0
2025-26		10	0	0	0	+2	4	-1.1	-2.9	+0.4	-0.3	-1.6	+1.1	+2.5	+1.2	+0.0	+0.0	-0.6

NHL Edge — tracking, 2021-22 on

Season	Shot mph	Speed mph	22+ /GP	20–22 /GP	18–20 /GP	Miles /60
2024-25			0.02	0.8	2.9	8.6
2025-26			0.04	0.8	4.3	8.1

Over time

Career net goalsrunning total vs a league-average player

84-game stretcheshis best and worst windows of the form line

	G	A	P	PPP	+/−	TOI/GP	Pen taken	Pen drawn	FO%	Team W-L-OTL
Best-0.5Oct 28 ’23 – Mar 24 ’26	1	8	9	0	+1	13:28	17	7	—	46-29-9
Worst-1.6Jan 16 ’25 – Apr 12 ’26	1	8	9	0	-3	14:17	16	8	—	45-29-10

Games and opponents

Single-game net goalsshare of his 95 games by that night’s total

Best game +0.86 net goals · Apr 6, 2025 vs CBJ (W 4–0) · Game recap →

Vs competition quartilescareer at 5v5, opposing fives ranked by average net goals/84

Shots

Best finishes on videohis lowest-xG goals with a highlight clip (2018-19 on)

	xG	Date	Opp	Sit	Shot
1	0.124	Apr 6, 2025	vs CBJ	EV	Backhand	Watch ▸

2026-27 forecast

Projected GP

-0.8

Projected net goals

From the season simulation behind the projected standings: his per-84 value times the games he is expected to play.

Comparables at 26

The most similar players at the same age: level, trajectory, experience, ice time and style. Net goals per 84 then, and over their next three seasons.

Now: −0.9 (2025-26 and the season before, regressed)

Nikolascomparables

Victor Bartley 2014-15 NSH · 86% match
then −0.5→−5.3 out out
David Schlemko 2013-14 PHX · 83% match
then −0.7→−0.7 +2.3 −2.0
Kevin Gravel 2018-19 EDM · 82% match
then −1.3→3 GP out out
Clayton Stoner 2011-12 MIN · 80% match
then +0.0→−1.1 −0.5 +3.3
Jordie Benn 2013-14 DAL · 80% match
then −0.6→+0.8 +0.2 +0.0

They averaged −1.6 the next season; 3 of 5 were still in the NHL three seasons later. In backtests, comparables add information about how long a career lasts; for next season, the forecast above is the better guide.