OTT beat CBJ 4–0. OTT lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 2.8 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Adam Gaudette scored at 2:24 of the first, moving OTT’s win probability from 53% to 69%. Linus Ullmark saved 2.7 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CBJ–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:24 | OTT | Adam Gaudette from Thomas Chabot, Nick Jensen | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 4:26 | OTT | Nikolas Matinpalo from Claude Giroux, Fabian Zetterlund | 0–2 | 69% → 82% |
| P3 4:32 | OTT | David Perron from Drake Batherson, Thomas Chabot | 0–3 | 94% → 99% |
| P3 19:19 | OTT | Shane PintoEN from Jake Sanderson, Ridly Greig | 0–4 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Monahan C | 17:23 | +0.15 | +0.11 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Kent Johnson C | 18:36 | +0.04 | +0.13 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dante Fabbro D | 21:26 | +0.04 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Egor Chinakhov R | 11:19 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Gudbranson D | 14:52 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Werenski D | 24:53 | −0.02 | +0.16 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| James van Riemsdyk L | 8:40 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Denton Mateychuk D | 19:12 | −0.04 | +0.06 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Johnson D | 13:35 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Sillinger C | 15:55 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Adam Fantilli C | 16:26 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Kirill Marchenko R | 15:27 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 24:28 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Kuraly C | 10:57 | −0.25 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.01 | ||
| Justin Danforth R | 13:00 | −0.36 | −0.03 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | −0.04 | ||
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 12:58 | −0.46 | −0.04 | −0.42 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Boone Jenner C | 20:13 | −0.53 | +0.15 | −0.67 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Olivier R | 17:09 | −0.54 | −0.06 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Elvis Merzlikins G | 53:05 | +0.99 |
| Daniil Tarasov G | 4:26 | −1.45 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikolas Matinpalo D | 14:41 | 1 | +1.00 | +0.04 | +0.53 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.40 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Gaudette R | 12:26 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.00 | +0.69 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| David Perron L | 17:30 | 1 | +0.49 | −0.15 | +0.67 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Claude Giroux R | 14:57 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.02 | −0.14 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.03 | |
| Tyler Kleven D | 14:39 | +0.04 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Angus Crookshank C | 9:46 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artem Zub D | 22:06 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Highmore C | 11:10 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Stützle C | 17:26 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drake Batherson R | 17:12 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Jensen D | 17:58 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Thomas Chabot D | 22:26 | 2 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 15:54 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Amadio R | 16:17 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ridly Greig C | 18:41 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.02 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Shane Pinto C | 17:02 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.29 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Jake Sanderson D | 22:53 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.10 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Cozens C | 17:02 | −0.37 | −0.13 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark G | 59:54 | +2.74 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.