FLA beat BOS 5–4 in a shootout. FLA also won the expected-goals battle 4.2 to 3.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Casey Mittelstadt scored on the power play at 10:30 of the third, moving BOS’s win probability from 18% to 48%. Sergei Bobrovsky saved 1.8 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BOS–FLA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:22 | FLA | Eetu Luostarinen unassisted | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 7:18 |  BOS | Michael Eyssimont from Alex Steeves, Hampus Lindholm | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 12:43 | BOS | Michael Eyssimont from Marat Khusnutdinov, Andrew Peeke | 2–1 | 46% → 64% |
| P2 0:30 | FLA | Uvis BalinskisPP from Matthew Tkachuk, Anton Lundell | 2–2 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 2:47 | FLA | Matthew TkachukPP from Anton Lundell, Uvis Balinskis | 2–3 | 54% → 72% |
| P2 18:33 | FLA | Anton LundellSH from Sam Reinhart | 2–4 | 76% → 91% |
| P3 7:52 | BOS | Mark Kastelic from Charlie McAvoy, Hampus Lindholm | 3–4 | 5% → 19% |
| P3 10:30 | BOS | Casey MittelstadtPP from David Pastrnak, Morgan Geekie | 4–4 | 18% → 48% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Eyssimont C | 12:18 | 2 | +0.58 | +0.09 | +0.61 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Viktor Arvidsson L | 18:15 | +0.26 | −0.08 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.66 | ||
| Hampus Lindholm D | 25:01 | 2 | +0.21 | +0.36 | −0.01 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tanner Jeannot L | 12:14 | +0.13 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Mark Kastelic C | 12:36 | 1 | +0.10 | −0.31 | +0.39 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | |
| Alex Steeves C | 10:56 | 1 | +0.05 | −0.04 | −0.24 | +0.13 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Mason Lohrei D | 15:59 | +0.05 | +0.23 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Pastrnak R | 27:52 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.26 | −0.13 | +0.21 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Sean Kuraly C | 9:22 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Aspirot D | 13:50 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 19:55 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.16 | +0.26 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | −0.49 | |
| Andrew Peeke D | 19:05 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.29 | −0.00 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Morgan Geekie C | 22:54 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.13 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Matthew Poitras C | 13:05 | −0.27 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Marat Khusnutdinov C | 16:49 | 1 | −0.34 | +0.13 | −0.21 | +0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.38 | |
| Nikita Zadorov D | 19:56 | −0.36 | −0.37 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charlie McAvoy D | 22:05 | 1 | −0.60 | −0.54 | −0.00 | +0.23 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.49 | |
| Fraser Minten C | 19:53 | −0.60 | −0.28 | −0.22 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joonas Korpisalo G | 65:00 | +0.91 |
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anton Lundell C | 24:18 | 1 | 2 | +2.04 | +0.46 | +0.55 | +0.22 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.05 | +0.66 |
| Brad Marchand L | 10:55 | +0.89 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +1.01 | ||
| Uvis Balinskis D | 21:26 | 1 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.40 | +0.28 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Sam Bennett C | 22:58 | +0.32 | +0.26 | −0.04 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 18:04 | 1 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.19 | +0.15 | +0.26 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.49 |
| Jeff Petry D | 14:55 | +0.04 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tobias Bjornfot D | 8:27 | +0.02 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Schwindt C | 7:47 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Sandis Vilmanis L | 2:35 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Mackie Samoskevich R | 7:17 | −0.06 | +0.20 | −0.24 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| A.J. Greer L | 12:49 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Aaron Ekblad D | 22:06 | −0.10 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Forsling D | 30:48 | −0.15 | +0.18 | −0.00 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Niko Mikkola D | 23:40 | −0.19 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 17:10 | 1 | −0.23 | +0.05 | +0.39 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.58 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 17:47 | −0.38 | +0.09 | −0.15 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Sam Reinhart C | 23:08 | 1 | −0.81 | +0.18 | −0.32 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.38 | |
| Evan Rodrigues C | 16:51 | −0.85 | −0.04 | −0.59 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.04 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky G | 65:00 | +1.82 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.