Tonight: 9 gamesModel estimates, not official NHL statistics
puckmodel
ANABOSBUFCARCBJCGYCHICOLDALDETEDMFLALAKMINMTLNJDNSHNYINYROTTPHIPITSEASJSSTLTBLTORUTAVANVGKWPGWSHUFA
Pittsburgh Penguins › Ryan Graves
Ryan Graves
D · #27 · PIT · 31 · Sheltered third-pair D · Average steadiness (65th pct)
Average career stats over an 84-game season
6
G
16
A
22
P
+14
+/−
41
PIM
18:10
TOI/GP
0:02
PP TOI/GP
2:14
SH TOI/GP
SeasonTeamTypeGPBox scoreNet goals per 84 gamesEloPlayoffsOn-ice contextContract
GAP+/−PIMEV offEV defPPPKFinPlaySuppPenFOSOOverallCompTop oppMatesTop linematesCap hit% of capNG/84
per $M
2018-19COL26325+42-0.49:53-0.8+0.10:00+0.21:12+3.1-0.6+0.2+0.7+0.0-0.0+2.5+1-0.0Chiarot 6%-0.1Barrie 32%Compher 29%Calvert 29%Kerfoot 28%$0.65M0.8%+3.84
2019-20COL6991726+4045-0.916:05+1.1+0.00:03-0.22:47+1.4+0.2+0.9-1.4+0.0+0.0+1.1+30-3.215 GP+0.7Kopitar 3%+3.9Makar 39%MacKinnon 34%Landeskog 28%Nieto 25%$0.73M0.9%+1.53
2020-21COL5421315+1555+0.315:41+0.9+0.40:03+1.03:18-1.6-0.1+0.6-2.5+0.0+0.0-0.9+41+9.310 GP+0.1Kaprizov 7%+5.5Jost 27%Kadri 26%Toews 26%Nichushkin 26%$3.17M3.9%-0.29
2021-22NJD7562228-924+0.418:13-1.4+0.50:03+1.02:26+0.0+1.6-0.1+2.0+0.0+0.0+4.1+1+1.1Laine 3%+0.1Severson 32%Hamilton 32%Hischier 29%Sharangovich 25%$3.17M3.9%+1.28
2022-23NJD7881826+3428+1.717:29+0.1+0.10:03+0.52:24+1.0+0.4+1.1-0.6+0.0+0.0+4.3+59-7.410 GP+1.2Guentzel 3%+2.4Marino 63%Hischier 34%Mercer 30%Tatar 26%$3.17M3.8%+1.36
2023-24PIT7031114+1030+0.616:23-0.1-0.20:00+0.71:59-0.2-2.4+1.4+0.1+0.0-0.0+0.0-28+0.3Chychrun 2%-0.6Letang 35%Karlsson 30%Eller 27%O'Connor 27%$4.50M5.4%+0.01
2024-25PIT61134-1529-0.713:23+1.0+0.40:00-0.21:35-0.2-1.9+0.4+1.4+0.0+0.0+0.2-11+0.2Dobson 3%-0.7Acciari 32%Shea 26%Lizotte 21%St. Ivany 20%$4.50M5.1%+0.04
2025-26PIT22101-310-0.514:46+1.9+0.30:00-0.10:31-0.4-1.8+0.4-0.2+0.0+0.0-0.3-6-0.4Bunting 5%-0.2Clifton 59%Novak 28%Mantha 28%Kindel 25%$4.50M4.7%-0.07
2018-19COL26325+42-0.19:53-0.1+0.00:00+0.01:12+0.1-0.2+0.1+0.2+0.0-0.0+0.1+1-0.0Chiarot 6%-0.1Barrie 32%Compher 29%Calvert 29%Kerfoot 28%$0.65M0.8%+0.13
2019-20COL6991726+4045-0.416:05+0.3+0.00:03-0.12:47+0.4+0.0+0.8-0.6+0.0+0.0+0.4+30-3.215 GP+0.7Kopitar 3%+3.9Makar 39%MacKinnon 34%Landeskog 28%Nieto 25%$0.73M0.9%+0.60
2020-21COL5421315+1555-0.015:41+0.3+0.10:03+0.23:18+0.1-0.1+0.7-1.2+0.0+0.0+0.0+41+9.310 GP+0.1Kaprizov 7%+5.5Jost 27%Kadri 26%Toews 26%Nichushkin 26%$3.17M3.9%+0.01
2021-22NJD7562228-924+0.118:13-0.4+0.20:03+0.32:26+0.2+0.7+0.0+0.4+0.0+0.0+1.6+1+1.1Laine 3%+0.1Severson 32%Hamilton 32%Hischier 29%Sharangovich 25%$3.17M3.9%+0.51
2022-23NJD7881826+3428+0.817:29+0.0+0.10:03+0.32:24+0.3+0.5+1.1-0.4+0.0+0.0+2.7+59-7.410 GP+1.2Guentzel 3%+2.4Marino 63%Hischier 34%Mercer 30%Tatar 26%$3.17M3.8%+0.84
2023-24PIT7031114+1030+0.416:23-0.0-0.00:00+0.41:59+0.2-0.9+1.3-0.1+0.0-0.0+1.3-28+0.3Chychrun 2%-0.6Letang 35%Karlsson 30%Eller 27%O'Connor 27%$4.50M5.4%+0.30
2024-25PIT61134-1529-0.113:23+0.3+0.20:00+0.21:35+0.2-0.9+0.4+0.5+0.0+0.0+0.8-11+0.2Dobson 3%-0.7Acciari 32%Shea 26%Lizotte 21%St. Ivany 20%$4.50M5.1%+0.18
2025-26PIT22101-310+0.114:46+0.3+0.10:00+0.20:31+0.1-0.7+0.5-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.7-6-0.4Bunting 5%-0.2Clifton 59%Novak 28%Mantha 28%Kindel 25%$4.50M4.7%+0.16
2018-19COL26325+42-0.19:53-0.1+0.00:00+0.01:12+0.1-0.2-0.2+0.2+0.0-0.0-0.31501-0.0Chiarot 6%-0.1Barrie 32%Compher 29%Calvert 29%Kerfoot 28%$0.65M0.8%-0.40
2019-20COL95121931+4447-0.316:05+0.1+0.00:03-0.02:47+0.4-0.1+1.0-0.5+0.0-0.0+0.61530-3.215 GP+0.5Kopitar 2%+3.2Makar 32%MacKinnon 28%Landeskog 23%Nieto 20%$0.69M0.9%+0.88
2020-21COL149143246+59102-0.115:41+0.2+0.10:03+0.13:18+0.2-0.4+1.5-0.9+0.0-0.0+0.51566+1.825 GP+0.4Kaprizov 3%+4.1Makar 19%MacKinnon 17%Landeskog 14%Nieto 12%$1.52M1.9%+0.33
2021-22NJD224205474+50126-0.018:13-0.0+0.10:03+0.22:26+0.2+0.6+0.7-0.2+0.0-0.0+1.51553+1.825 GP+0.7Kaprizov 2%+2.6Makar 12%Severson 12%Hamilton 12%Hischier 11%$1.93M2.4%+0.79
2022-23NJD3022872100+84154+0.317:29-0.0+0.10:03+0.22:24+0.3+0.7+0.7-0.3+0.0-0.0+2.01601-0.835 GP+0.8Zibanejad 1%+2.5Marino 17%Hischier 17%Makar 9%Severson 9%$2.18M2.7%+0.91
2023-24PIT3723183114+94184+0.316:23-0.0+0.10:00+0.31:59+0.2+0.1+0.9-0.2+0.0-0.0+1.71553-0.835 GP+0.7Zibanejad 1%+2.0Marino 14%Hischier 14%Makar 7%Severson 7%$2.56M3.1%+0.65
2024-25PIT4333286118+79213+0.213:23+0.1+0.10:00+0.31:35+0.2-0.3+0.8-0.0+0.0-0.0+1.31532-0.835 GP+0.6Zibanejad 1%+1.7Marino 12%Hischier 12%Makar 6%Severson 6%$2.84M3.4%+0.46
2025-26PIT4553386119+76223+0.214:46+0.1+0.10:00+0.20:31+0.2-0.4+0.6-0.0+0.0-0.0+1.11519-0.835 GP+0.6Zibanejad 1%+1.6Marino 12%Hischier 12%Makar 6%Severson 6%$3.05M3.6%+0.35
SeasonTeamGPBox scoreNet goals per 84 games
GAP+/−PIMEV offEV defPPPKFinPlaySuppPenFOSOOverall
2019-20COL15123+96+2.1-1.1+0.2-1.4-1.7-1.9+0.3+0.1+0.0+0.0-3.2
2020-21COL10156+510+1.3-0.2+0.4+2.1+1.0+4.3+0.6-0.3+0.0+0.0+9.3
2022-23NJD10011-14-2.1+0.4-0.0+0.9-1.8-3.4+0.5-1.9+0.0+0.0-7.4
2019-20COL15123+96+2.1-1.1+0.2-1.4-1.7-1.9+0.3+0.1+0.0+0.0-3.2
2020-21COL25279+1416+1.8-0.7+0.3+0.0-0.6+0.6+0.5-0.1+0.0+0.0+1.8
2022-23NJD352810+1320+0.7-0.4+0.2+0.3-0.9-0.6+0.5-0.6+0.0+0.0-0.8
NHL Edge — tracking, 2021-22 on
SeasonShot mphSpeed mph22+ /GP20–22 /GP18–20 /GPMiles /60
2021-2295.421.60.000.22.78.3
2022-2392.220.90.000.22.28.3
2023-2496.520.80.000.11.88.4
2024-250.000.32.18.5
2025-260.000.32.08.6

2026-27 projection

How it was builthis last five seasons, aged, weighted by recency, shrunk toward a prior

+0.0 NG/84 · 73 projected GP → +0.0 net goals over the season

The seasons behind it (NG/84)
SeasonGPNG/84Age adjAged
2021-2275+3.93-1.39+2.54
2022-2378+3.19-1.31+1.88
2023-2470-0.41-1.21-1.62
2024-2561+0.62-0.94-0.32
2025-2622+0.35-0.46-0.10
Component by component (NG/84)
His rateMemorynPriorTrustProjected
EV offense-0.291.2 yr188-0.1975%-0.27
EV defense+0.920.7 yr104+0.1838%+0.46
Power play+0.180.9 yr143+0.0149%+0.10
Penalty kill+0.131.2 yr188-0.0448%+0.04
Finishing+0.214.3 yr293-0.0651%+0.08
Playmaking-1.522.4 yr269-0.0691%-1.38
Suppression+0.710.9 yr143+0.00100%+0.71
Penalties+0.384.3 yr293-0.0380%+0.30
Faceoffs+0.000.9 yr143-0.0084%+0.00
Shootout+0.0113.5 yr305-0.001%-0.00
NG/84+0.74-0.19+0.04

1. Age. Every past season is first moved to his 2026-27 age along each component's career curve (Age adj: what a typical player gains or loses between that age and this one). Games from 2026-27 so far count like 2025-26 games, with no age adjustment. 2. Recency. Per component, the seasons are averaged with weights that fall off with age; Memory is the half-life in seasons, fitted walk-forward (penalty kill and EV defense change fast, finishing and playmaking slowly). 3. Shrinkage. Each component is pulled toward the average defenseman who reached the NHL at 22-23 (Prior). Trust = n / (n + K): n is the effective number of games behind the weighted rate, K how many games of evidence that component needs before it outweighs the prior (fitted walk-forward on 2013-2025-26 seasons). Projected = Trust × his rate + (1 − Trust) × Prior. The ten projected components add up to his NG/84, the number the standings simulation dresses him at. Proj GP = games played so far plus the games the standings simulation dresses him for (injuries from ESPN return dates; goalies split 65/35 starter/backup).

Over time

84-game formtrailing net goals/84
'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26BW+4.9-0.9+0.5
Career net goalsrunning total vs a league-average player
'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26+8
84-game stretcheshis best and worst windows of the form line
GAPPPP+/−TOI/GPPen takenPen drawnFO%Team W-L-OTL
Best+4.9Feb 26 ’21 – Mar 1 ’22629350+1320:112016—45-31-8
Worst-0.9Nov 7 ’23 – Dec 14 ’2439120-217:131510—36-35-13

Games and opponents

Single-game net goalsshare of his 455 games by that night’s total
10%20%-1.00 to -0.90 net goals: 0.2% of games (1)-0.70 to -0.60 net goals: 0.2% of games (1)-0.60 to -0.50 net goals: 0.4% of games (2)-0.50 to -0.40 net goals: 1.1% of games (5)-0.40 to -0.30 net goals: 3.1% of games (14)-0.30 to -0.20 net goals: 5.3% of games (24)-0.20 to -0.10 net goals: 15.4% of games (70)-0.10 to +0.00 net goals: 25.1% of games (114)+0.00 to +0.10 net goals: 24.6% of games (112)+0.10 to +0.20 net goals: 10.5% of games (48)+0.20 to +0.30 net goals: 6.4% of games (29)+0.30 to +0.40 net goals: 2.9% of games (13)+0.40 to +0.50 net goals: 1.5% of games (7)+0.50 to +0.60 net goals: 0.7% of games (3)+0.60 to +0.70 net goals: 0.4% of games (2)+0.70 to +0.80 net goals: 1.3% of games (6)+0.80 to +0.90 net goals: 0.4% of games (2)+0.90 to +1.00 net goals: 0.2% of games (1)+2.20 to +2.30 net goals: 0.2% of games (1)-2-10+1+2+3mean +0.0148%above 051%below 0
Best game +2.29 net goals · Feb 14, 2023 at CBJ (W 3–2) · Game recap →
Vs competition quartilescareer at 5v5, opposing fives ranked by average net goals/84
NET GOALS/84 VS AVERAGE, SAME QUARTILESHARE OF 5v5 TIME■ HOME ■ AWAYvs Q4 Toughestopposing five avg +2.0Career vs Q4: +0.3 net goals/84 above an average defenseman facing the same quartile; 1,789 min = 25% of his 5v5. Goals in those minutes: EV off +0.8, EV def -2.1, finishing -1.7, playmaking/suppression share -0.2; on-ice xGF% 46.5 (league 45.1), goals 80-95+0.3Home games: 887 of 3,484 career 5v5 min vs Q4 (25.5%; 25% = the league-wide split; all games 25.5%)25%Away games: 901 of 3,544 career 5v5 min vs Q4 (25.4%; 25% = the league-wide split; all games 25.5%)25%vs Q3 Toughopposing five avg +0.5Career vs Q3: +1.8 net goals/84 above an average defenseman facing the same quartile; 1,774 min = 25% of his 5v5. Goals in those minutes: EV off -0.9, EV def +1.2, finishing +1.6, playmaking/suppression share -0.4; on-ice xGF% 51.2 (league 49.0), goals 80-81+1.8Home games: 891 of 3,484 career 5v5 min vs Q3 (25.6%; 25% = the league-wide split; all games 25.2%)26%Away games: 882 of 3,544 career 5v5 min vs Q3 (24.9%; 25% = the league-wide split; all games 25.2%)25%vs Q2 Easyopposing five avg -0.4Career vs Q2: +4.9 net goals/84 above an average defenseman facing the same quartile; 1,768 min = 25% of his 5v5. Goals in those minutes: EV off +0.1, EV def +2.8, finishing +4.5, playmaking/suppression share -0.4; on-ice xGF% 54.7 (league 51.2), goals 87-56+4.9Home games: 866 of 3,484 career 5v5 min vs Q2 (24.8%; 25% = the league-wide split; all games 25.2%)25%Away games: 902 of 3,544 career 5v5 min vs Q2 (25.5%; 25% = the league-wide split; all games 25.2%)25%vs Q1 Easiestopposing five avg -1.3Career vs Q1: -0.1 net goals/84 above an average defenseman facing the same quartile; 1,697 min = 24% of his 5v5. Goals in those minutes: EV off +0.5, EV def +3.1, finishing -0.5, playmaking/suppression share -0.3; on-ice xGF% 56.5 (league 55.2), goals 70-51-0.1Home games: 839 of 3,484 career 5v5 min vs Q1 (24.1%; 25% = the league-wide split; all games 24.2%)24%Away games: 858 of 3,544 career 5v5 min vs Q1 (24.2%; 25% = the league-wide split; all games 24.2%)24%25% = even−12.60+12.6

Plus/minus by situation

+/− by manpowerthe official +/- split by situation; goalie-in +/- leaves out the empty nets
Even strengthPower playPenalty killGoalie pulled
SeasonTeamGP+/−5v54v43v35v45v34v34v53v53v46v55v6OtherGoalie in
2018-19COL26+4+300000+100000+4
2019-20COL69+40+28-10000+500+1+6+1+33
2020-21COL54+15+9+10000+1000+40+11
2021-22NJD75-9-120+1000+2000-1+1-8
2022-23NJD78+34+19+20000+300-1+110+24
2023-24PIT70+10+1-10000+2000+80+2
2024-25PIT61-15-130000000+10-30-12
2025-26PIT22-3-300000+1000-10-2
Total455+76+32+1+1000+150+10+24+2+52

How each state adds to the official +/-: at even strength every goal counts; on his power play only a shorthanded goal against counts (a minus), on his penalty kill only a shorthanded goal for (a plus). Other is whatever the official +/- has left, so each row adds up: mostly empty-net goals against while his team pulled its goalie on a power play (6-on-4). Goalie in = the official +/- without 6v5 and 5v6. 6v5 and 5v6 +/- do not carry over from season to season (r 0.02 and 0.15): they mostly show who is sent out when a goalie is pulled. Since 2010-11; hover a cell for minutes and the goals behind it.

Shots

Shot mixhis shots on goal by type and location, 2010-11 on
ShareTotal shotsAvg dist (ft)xGGG/xGNet goals/84
Wrist46%2995711.4141.23+0.5
Snap18%115486.681.22+0.3
Slap33%214588.780.92-0.1
Backhand2%15281.210.82–
Tip-in0%3440.50––
Deflection0%1120.20––
Other0%2150.21––
Total6495528.8321.11+0.6

The rink is drawn from his side: he attacks left to right, his left on top. Right half: where his own shots come from. Left half: where he blocks shots (blocks carry no shot type, so that half ignores the type buttons). Blue = a bigger share of those shots from that zone than the league average for defensemen in the same situation (and shot type, when one is picked); red = a smaller share.

5. Graves' first of the season starts the scoring — 0.014 xG wrist · Mar 13, 2025 vs STL on Jordan Binnington — watch the clip54. Graves' blistering slap shot — 0.013 xG slap · Jan 20, 2020 vs DET on Jimmy Howard — watch the clip43. Graves scores goal — 0.012 xG snap · Feb 28, 2022 vs VAN on Jaroslav Halak — watch the clip32. Graves scores goal — 0.011 xG wrist · Oct 30, 2022 vs CBJ on Elvis Merzlikins — watch the clip21. Graves scores goal — 0.010 xG wrist · Jan 14, 2023 at LAK on Jonathan Quick — watch the clip1HIS OWN ZONE · SHOTS HE BLOCKEDATTACKING ZONE · HIS SHOTS
his blocked shots vs defensemen · n=824 · ±0.30pphis shots on goal vs defensemen · n=647 · ±0.30pp
Best finishes on videohis lowest-xG goals with a highlight clip (2018-19 on), starred on the rink above
xGHighlightDateOppGoalieSitShot
★10.010Graves scores goal ▸Jan 14, 2023at LAKJonathan QuickEVWrist
★20.011Graves scores goal ▸Oct 30, 2022vs CBJElvis MerzlikinsEVWrist
★30.012Graves scores goal ▸Feb 28, 2022vs VANJaroslav HalakEVSnap
★40.013Graves' blistering slap shot ▸Jan 20, 2020vs DETJimmy HowardEVSlap
★50.014Graves' first of the season starts the scoring ▸Mar 13, 2025vs STLJordan BinningtonEVWrist

Goalie matchups

Career G − xG by goaliegoalies he has scored on most and least relative to xG
Most success against
GoalieGmSOGGxGG−xG
Jordan Binnington203531.3+1.7
Elvis Merzlikins6820.4+1.6
James Reimer4720.5+1.5
Least success against
GoalieGmSOGGxGG−xG
Ville Husso51201.1-1.1
Joonas Korpisalo61701.0-1.0
Anton Khudobin61900.9-0.9