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puckmodel
ANABOSBUFCARCBJCGYCHICOLDALDETEDMFLALAKMINMTLNJDNSHNYINYROTTPHIPITSEASJSSTLTBLTORUTAVANVGKWPGWSHUFA
Ottawa Senators › Philip Tomasino
Philip Tomasino
RW · #62 · OTT · 25 · 6′0″ · 187 lb
Complementary skill winger
Draft2019 · NSH · Round 1 · 24th overall
Cap hit
$900,000
0.9% of the $104M cap
Year 1 of 1 · final year
26-27
RFA · summer 2027 · age 25
Average career stats over an 84-game season
13
G
24
A
37
P
-4
+/−
19
PIM
12:45
TOI/GP
1:30
PP TOI/GP
0:00
SH TOI/GP
SeasonTeamTypeBox scoreNet goals per 84 gamesEloOn-ice contextContract
GPGAP+/−PIMPPPSHPGWGSOGHITBLKTKGVHITTShootoutOZ/DZ
starts		EV offEV defPPPKFinPlaySuppPenFOSOOverallCompTop oppMatesTop linematesCap hitPlayer
value		Contract
value
2021-22NSH76112132+21090311149281723721.54-0.510:11+1.3-0.71:20+0.1-0.5+0.7-0.3+0.4-0.1-0.0+0.4+2-0.2Kulikov2.2%+0.4Cousins42%Ekholm37%Josi36%Carrier30%$0.86M1.1%$3.4M4.2%+$2.6M
2022-23NSH3151318+566005428161015391/32.28-1.213:21-0.4-2.02:14+0.10:00-1.0+1.7+0.0+4.8+0.1-0.3+1.8+9-0.0Nemeth5.1%-1.5Glass66%Barrie39%Duchene28%Fabbro28%$0.86M1.0%$3.0M3.6%+$2.1M
2023-24NSH4171320-6254026213181628621.22+0.710:57-0.7-1.01:36+0.2+0.1-1.3-0.5-0.4-0.3+0.0-3.2+5+0.2Suter3.3%+0.4McCarron44%Josi36%McDonagh31%Lauzon26%$0.86M1.0%$3.3M4.0%+$2.4M
2024-25NSHPIT61111324-10880610463231732792.23-0.411:36+0.7+0.41:27+0.10:00-0.4-0.8-0.5+1.0-0.1-0.0+0.0-25+0.1Girard3.1%-0.7Malkin38%Letang31%Karlsson30%Hayes28%$0.82M0.9%$3.4M3.9%+$2.6M
2021-22NSH76112132+21090311149281723721.54-0.210:11+0.4-0.31:20+0.0-0.1+0.4-0.3+0.2-0.1-0.0+0.2+2-0.2Kulikov2.2%+0.4Cousins42%Ekholm37%Josi36%Carrier30%$0.86M1.1%$3.4M4.2%+$2.6M
2022-23NSH3151318+566005428161015391/32.28-0.313:21+0.1-0.52:14+0.00:00-0.1+0.9+0.1+1.4-0.0-0.0+1.5+9-0.0Nemeth5.1%-1.5Glass66%Barrie39%Duchene28%Fabbro28%$0.86M1.0%$3.0M3.6%+$2.1M
2023-24NSH4171320-6254026213181628621.22-0.110:57-0.0-0.51:36+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.3+0.5-0.2-0.0-0.7+5+0.2Suter3.3%+0.4McCarron44%Josi36%McDonagh31%Lauzon26%$0.86M1.0%$3.3M4.0%+$2.4M
2024-25NSHPIT61111324-10880610463231732792.23-0.211:36+0.3-0.11:27+0.10:00-0.2-0.3-0.4+0.8-0.1-0.0-0.1-25+0.1Girard3.1%-0.7Malkin38%Letang31%Karlsson30%Hayes28%$0.82M0.9%$3.4M3.9%+$2.6M
2021-22NSH76112132+21090311149281723721.54-0.210:11+0.2-0.11:20+0.0-0.1+0.5+0.3+0.2-0.1-0.0+0.81502-0.2Kulikov2.2%+0.4Cousins42%Ekholm37%Josi36%Carrier30%$0.86M1.1%$3.4M4.2%+$2.6M
2022-23NSH107163450+7161503165774427381111/31.79-0.313:21+0.2-0.32:14+0.00:00-0.1+0.8+0.6+0.9-0.1-0.0+1.71510-0.1Nemeth1.8%-0.2Cousins27%Ekholm24%Glass24%Josi23%$0.86M1.1%$3.2M3.9%+$2.4M
2023-24NSH148234770+1411905227906243661731/31.61-0.210:57+0.1-0.41:36+0.0-0.1+0.3+0.2+0.7-0.1-0.0+0.61513-0.0Suter1.8%-0.1Josi27%Cousins20%Ekholm17%Glass17%$0.86M1.0%$3.2M3.9%+$2.4M
2024-25NSHPIT209346094-949270113311538560982521/31.74-0.211:36+0.2-0.31:27+0.00:00-0.1+0.1-0.3+0.8-0.1-0.0+0.01485-0.0Suter1.3%-0.3Josi19%Cousins14%Ekholm12%Glass12%$0.85M1.0%$3.3M3.9%+$2.4M
SeasonTeamBox scoreNet goals per 84 games
GPGAP+/−PIMPPPSHPGWGSOGHITBLKTKGVHITTEV offEV defPPPKFinPlaySuppPenFOSOOverall
2021-22NSH3000-212000033116-2.9-0.5-2.2+0.1-0.1-1.9-0.2-5.6-0.0-0.0-13.3
2021-22NSH3000-212000033116-2.9-0.5-2.2+0.1-0.1-1.9-0.2-5.6+0.0-0.0-13.3

Game log

Every regular-season game, one night at a time: the box score, then the net goals that game added to his rating, by component, in goals. The season table above shows the same per 84 games. Click a column to sort.

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2026-27 projection

How it was builthis last five seasons, aged, weighted by recency, shrunk toward a prior

+0.2 NG/84 · 80 projected GP → +0.2 net goals over the season

The seasons behind it (NG/84)
SeasonGPNG/84Age adjAged
2021-2276+0.57+1.29+1.87
2022-2331+1.34+0.74+2.08
2023-2441-2.96+0.48-2.47
2024-2561+0.10+0.19+0.29
Component by component (NG/84)
His rateMemorynPriorTrustProjected
EV offense-0.210.9 yr121-0.0673%-0.17
EV defense+0.320.9 yr121-0.0255%+0.17
Power play+0.040.9 yr121-0.1968%-0.03
Penalty kill+0.131.2 yr142-0.0254%+0.06
Finishing-0.404.3 yr201+0.0859%-0.20
Playmaking-0.202.4 yr186-0.1993%-0.20
Suppression-0.220.9 yr121-0.00100%-0.22
Penalties+0.844.3 yr201+0.2485%+0.75
Faceoffs+0.070.9 yr121-0.1090%+0.05
Shootout+0.1113.5 yr208-0.031%-0.03
NG/84+0.48-0.29+0.18

1. Age. Every past season is first moved to his 2026-27 age along each component's career curve (Age adj: what a typical player gains or loses between that age and this one). Games from 2026-27 so far count like 2025-26 games, with no age adjustment. 2. Recency. Per component, the seasons are averaged with weights that fall off with age; Memory is the half-life in seasons, fitted walk-forward (penalty kill and EV defense change fast, finishing and playmaking slowly). 3. Shrinkage. Each component is pulled toward the average forward who reached the NHL at 20 (Prior). Trust = n / (n + K): n is the effective number of games behind the weighted rate, K how many games of evidence that component needs before it outweighs the prior (fitted walk-forward on 2013-2025-26 seasons, then every K is multiplied by 0.5: shrinking the ten components one at a time ignores that a player above the prior in one is usually above it in the others, which compressed the total by about a fifth). Projected = Trust × his rate + (1 − Trust) × Prior. The ten projected components add up to his NG/84, the number the standings simulation dresses him at. Proj GP = games played so far plus the games the standings simulation dresses him for (injuries from ESPN return dates; goalies split 65/35 starter/backup).

Over time

84-game formtrailing net goals/84
'22'23'24'25'26BWNSHPIT+3.0-3.0-1.9
Career net goalsrunning total vs a league-average player
'22'23'24'25'26NSHPIT+2-1
84-game stretcheshis best and worst windows of the form line
GAPPPP+/−TOI/GPPen takenPen drawnFO%Team W-L-OTL
Best+3.0Nov 24 ’21 – Apr 1 ’2313314411+1112:2341744.443-34-7
Worst-3.0Mar 16 ’23 – Jan 3 ’2513243710-613:3191836.841-36-7

Games and opponents

Single-game net goalsshare of his 218 games by that night’s total
5%10%15%20%-1.00 to -0.90 net goals: 0.5% of games (1)-0.80 to -0.70 net goals: 0.9% of games (2)-0.60 to -0.50 net goals: 0.5% of games (1)-0.50 to -0.40 net goals: 3.7% of games (8)-0.40 to -0.30 net goals: 4.1% of games (9)-0.30 to -0.20 net goals: 7.8% of games (17)-0.20 to -0.10 net goals: 22.9% of games (50)-0.10 to +0.00 net goals: 21.1% of games (46)+0.00 to +0.10 net goals: 14.2% of games (31)+0.10 to +0.20 net goals: 6.4% of games (14)+0.20 to +0.30 net goals: 5.0% of games (11)+0.30 to +0.40 net goals: 5.0% of games (11)+0.40 to +0.50 net goals: 2.3% of games (5)+0.50 to +0.60 net goals: 2.3% of games (5)+0.60 to +0.70 net goals: 0.5% of games (1)+0.70 to +0.80 net goals: 0.9% of games (2)+0.80 to +0.90 net goals: 0.5% of games (1)+1.00 to +1.10 net goals: 0.9% of games (2)+2.00 to +2.10 net goals: 0.5% of games (1)-2-10+1+2+3mean -0.0136%above 061%below 0
Best game +2.08 net goals · Dec 21, 2023 at PHI (W 4–2) · Game recap →
Vs competition quartilescareer at 5v5, opposing fives ranked by average net goals/84
NET GOALS/84 VS AVERAGE, SAME QUARTILESHARE OF 5v5 TIME■ HOME ■ AWAYvs Q4 Toughestopposing five avg +1.8Career vs Q4: +0.0 net goals/84 above an average forward facing the same quartile; 479 min = 21% of his 5v5. Goals in those minutes: EV off -0.9, EV def +0.3, finishing -0.2, playmaking/suppression share +0.1; on-ice xGF% 45.5 (league 45.2), goals 16-21+0.0Home games: 226 of 1,162 career 5v5 min vs Q4 (19.4%; 25% = the league-wide split; all games 20.9%)19%Away games: 253 of 1,133 career 5v5 min vs Q4 (22.3%; 25% = the league-wide split; all games 20.9%)22%vs Q3 Toughopposing five avg +0.4Career vs Q3: -0.5 net goals/84 above an average forward facing the same quartile; 594 min = 26% of his 5v5. Goals in those minutes: EV off -0.2, EV def +0.2, finishing -0.6, playmaking/suppression share +0.0; on-ice xGF% 50.0 (league 48.9), goals 25-21-0.5Home games: 306 of 1,162 career 5v5 min vs Q3 (26.3%; 25% = the league-wide split; all games 25.9%)26%Away games: 288 of 1,133 career 5v5 min vs Q3 (25.5%; 25% = the league-wide split; all games 25.9%)25%vs Q2 Easyopposing five avg -0.3Career vs Q2: -3.3 net goals/84 above an average forward facing the same quartile; 627 min = 27% of his 5v5. Goals in those minutes: EV off -0.5, EV def +0.2, finishing -1.5, playmaking/suppression share +0.0; on-ice xGF% 51.4 (league 51.4), goals 20-35-3.3Home games: 339 of 1,162 career 5v5 min vs Q2 (29.1%; 25% = the league-wide split; all games 27.3%)29%Away games: 288 of 1,133 career 5v5 min vs Q2 (25.4%; 25% = the league-wide split; all games 27.3%)25%vs Q1 Easiestopposing five avg -1.2Career vs Q1: -2.8 net goals/84 above an average forward facing the same quartile; 596 min = 26% of his 5v5. Goals in those minutes: EV off +0.1, EV def +0.4, finishing -1.2, playmaking/suppression share +0.1; on-ice xGF% 50.0 (league 55.2), goals 25-19-2.8Home games: 292 of 1,162 career 5v5 min vs Q1 (25.1%; 25% = the league-wide split; all games 26.0%)25%Away games: 303 of 1,133 career 5v5 min vs Q1 (26.8%; 25% = the league-wide split; all games 26.0%)27%25% = even−12.60+12.6

Plus/minus by situation

+/− by manpowerthe official +/- split by situation; goalie-in +/- leaves out the empty nets
Even strengthPower playPenalty killGoalie pulled
SeasonTeamGP+/−5v54v43v35v45v34v34v53v53v46v55v6OtherGoalie in
2021-22NSH76+2+100-1000000+200
2022-23NSH31+5+30+1000000+100+4
2023-24NSH41-6-600-100000+2-10-7
2024-25PIT/NSH61-10-8-1-1000000+1-10-10
2025-26PIT9-2-200000000000-2
Total218-11-12-10-200000+400-15

How each state adds to the official +/-: at even strength every goal counts; on his power play only a shorthanded goal against counts (a minus), on his penalty kill only a shorthanded goal for (a plus). Other is whatever the official +/- has left, so each row adds up: mostly empty-net goals against while his team pulled its goalie on a power play (6-on-4). Goalie in = the official +/- without 6v5 and 5v6. 6v5 and 5v6 +/- do not carry over from season to season (r 0.02 and 0.15): they mostly show who is sent out when a goalie is pulled. Since 2010-11; hover a cell for minutes and the goals behind it.

Shots

Shot mixhis shots on goal by type and location, 2010-11 on
ShareTotal shotsAvg dist (ft)xGGG/xGNet goals/84
Wrist65%2203120.7170.82-1.5
Snap13%44276.560.92–
Slap2%7360.71––
Backhand10%33193.251.56–
Tip-in6%19202.920.68–
Deflection4%14201.921.06–
Other1%3140.41––
Total3402836.3340.94-0.9

The rink is drawn from his side: he attacks left to right, his left on top. Right half: where his own shots come from. Left half: where he blocks shots (blocks carry no shot type, so that half ignores the type buttons). Blue = a bigger share of those shots from that zone than the league average for forwards in the same situation (and shot type, when one is picked); red = a smaller share.

5. ANA@NSH: Tomasino scores goal against Lukas Dostal — 0.087 xG wrist · Jan 9, 2024 vs ANA on Lukas Dostal — watch the clip54. Tomasino scores opening PPG — 0.085 xG snap · Jan 18, 2022 vs VAN on Thatcher Demko — watch the clip43. Tomasino scores goal — 0.071 xG snap · Apr 5, 2022 vs MIN on Marc-Andre Fleury — watch the clip32. Tomasino kicks off scoring — 0.054 xG slap · Feb 1, 2025 vs NSH on Juuse Saros — watch the clip21. Tomasino rifles opening goal home — 0.043 xG wrist · Dec 12, 2021 at NYR on Alexandar Georgiev — watch the clip1HIS OWN ZONE · SHOTS HE BLOCKEDATTACKING ZONE · HIS SHOTS
his blocked shots vs forwards · n=91 · ±0.30pphis shots on goal vs forwards · n=337 · ±0.30pp
Best finishes on videohis lowest-xG goals with a highlight clip (2018-19 on), starred on the rink above
xGHighlightDateOppGoalieSitShot
★10.043Tomasino rifles opening goal home ▸Dec 12, 2021at NYRAlexandar GeorgievEVWrist
★20.054Tomasino kicks off scoring ▸Feb 1, 2025vs NSHJuuse SarosEVSlap
★30.071Tomasino scores goal ▸Apr 5, 2022vs MINMarc-Andre FleuryEVSnap
★40.085Tomasino scores opening PPG ▸Jan 18, 2022vs VANThatcher DemkoPPSnap
★50.087ANA@NSH: Tomasino scores goal against Lukas Dostal ▸Jan 9, 2024vs ANALukas DostalEVWrist

Goalie matchups

Career G − xG by goaliegoalies he has scored on most and least relative to xG
Most success against
GoalieGmSOGGxGG−xG
Samuel Ersson4551.0+4.0
Thatcher Demko3921.1+0.9
Mads Sogaard1110.1+0.9
Least success against
GoalieGmSOGGxGG−xG
Sergei Bobrovsky4901.6-1.6
Casey DeSmith41001.0-1.0
Antti Raanta1400.8-0.8