NSH beat PHI 4–2. Expected goals were close to even (NSH 2.7, PHI 2.8), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Philip Tomasino scored at 15:59 of the third, moving NSH’s win probability from 49% to 88%. Juuse Saros saved 1.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NSH–PHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:31 | PHI | Morgan Frost from Bobby Brink, Owen Tippett | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P2 1:05 | NSH | Cole SmithSH from Colton Sissons | 1–1 | 28% → 46% |
| P2 4:45 | PHI | Sean CouturierPP unassisted | 1–2 | 54% → 73% |
| P2 5:24 | NSH | Philip Tomasino from Tommy Novak, Filip Forsberg | 2–2 | 27% → 47% |
| P3 15:59 | NSH | Philip Tomasino from Colton Sissons | 3–2 | 49% → 88% |
| P3 19:59 | NSH | Gustav NyquistEN from Filip Forsberg | 4–2 | 97% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Tomasino C | 15:11 | 2 | +1.78 | +0.24 | +1.54 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Smith L | 15:54 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.07 | +0.60 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Schenn D | 12:57 | +0.21 | +0.22 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Evangelista R | 15:18 | +0.09 | +0.13 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tommy Novak C | 15:25 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.14 | −0.14 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Gustav Nyquist R | 19:42 | 1 | +0.04 | −0.11 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Dante Fabbro D | 13:03 | +0.03 | +0.10 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 15:13 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Barrie D | 15:15 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 17:11 | 2 | −0.02 | +0.08 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 12:44 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 21:24 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.06 | ||
| Alexandre Carrier D | 15:33 | −0.11 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael McCarron C | 13:28 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yakov Trenin C | 6:04 | −0.25 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McDonagh D | 21:19 | −0.25 | +0.21 | −0.14 | +0.04 | +0.02 | −0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Roman Josi D | 24:31 | −0.25 | −0.09 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Forsberg L | 20:24 | 2 | −0.40 | +0.06 | −0.48 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 59:47 | +1.10 |
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Frost C | 15:03 | 1 | +0.95 | −0.03 | +0.72 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.07 | |
| Sean Couturier C | 21:24 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.07 | +0.63 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 20:38 | +0.04 | +0.12 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 5:23 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Foerster R | 17:19 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Garnet Hathaway R | 10:08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nick Seeler D | 17:44 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Sanheim D | 21:26 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bobby Brink R | 14:46 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Owen Tippett R | 16:07 | 1 | −0.23 | +0.03 | −0.42 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Ryan Poehling C | 14:21 | −0.27 | −0.16 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Scott Laughton C | 11:53 | −0.31 | −0.03 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Cam York D | 22:21 | −0.34 | −0.09 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Farabee L | 15:02 | −0.40 | −0.20 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Sean Walker D | 19:20 | −0.42 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Konecny R | 20:22 | −0.46 | +0.02 | −0.45 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Marc Staal D | 12:34 | −0.47 | −0.08 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Atkinson R | 16:27 | −0.60 | −0.06 | −0.34 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Ersson G | 57:42 | −0.31 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.