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puckmodel
ANABOSBUFCARCBJCGYCHICOLDALDETEDMFLALAKMINMTLNJDNSHNYINYROTTPHIPITSEASJSSTLTBLTORUTAVANVGKWPGWSHUFA
Minnesota Wild › Mason Shaw
Mason Shaw
C · #15 · MIN · 27 · 5′10″ · 184 lb
Physical enforcer
Draft2017 · MIN · Round 4 · 97th overall
Cap hit
$850,000
0.8% of the $104M cap
Year 1 of 1 · final year
26-27
UFA · summer 2027 · age 28
Average career stats over an 84-game season
8
G
12
A
20
P
-3
+/−
121
PIM
10:26
TOI/GP
0:07
PP TOI/GP
1:01
SH TOI/GP
SeasonTeamTypeBox scoreNet goals per 84 gamesEloOn-ice contextContract
GPGAP+/−PIMPPPSHPGWGSOGHITBLKTKGVHITTOZ/DZ
starts		EV offEV defPPPKFinPlaySuppPenFOSOOverallCompTop oppMatesTop linematesCap hitPlayer
value		Contract
value
2022-23MIN5971017-1790209287271718840.50-0.99:43+0.9-0.20:09+0.81:24-0.4-1.5+1.2+0.4+0.0-0.0+0.2+20-0.1Karlsson2.9%-1.4Dewar78%Reaves45%Dumba42%Middleton32%$0.75M0.9%$3.4M4.2%+$2.7M
2023-24MIN20123+0340002129631280.52-1.18:06+1.3-0.00:00+0.10:04-0.9+0.2+1.0-2.0+0.2+0.0-1.1-4-1.3Burroughs7.2%-1.8Lucchini80%Lettieri54%Bogosian33%Brodin33%$0.78M0.9%$2.1M2.5%+$1.3M
2022-23MIN5971017-1790209287271718840.50-0.29:43+0.3-0.10:09+0.21:24-0.1-0.8+1.0+0.2+0.0-0.0+0.5+20-0.1Karlsson2.9%-1.4Dewar78%Reaves45%Dumba42%Middleton32%$0.75M0.9%$3.4M4.2%+$2.7M
2023-24MIN20123+0340002129631280.52-0.48:06+0.3-0.00:00+0.10:04-0.1-0.7+0.9-0.2+0.1+0.0-0.1-4-1.3Burroughs7.2%-1.8Lucchini80%Lettieri54%Bogosian33%Brodin33%$0.78M0.9%$2.1M2.5%+$1.3M
2022-23MIN5971017-3840209993282019860.46-0.39:43+0.2-0.00:09+0.11:24-0.1-1.0+0.5+0.2+0.0-0.0-0.41517-0.2Karlsson3.6%-1.3Dewar75%Reaves44%Dumba41%Middleton31%$0.75M0.9%$3.4M4.2%+$2.7M
2023-24MIN7981220-31180201201223423201140.47-0.38:06+0.2-0.00:00+0.10:04-0.1-0.8+0.9-0.1+0.1-0.0-0.01509-0.4Karlsson2.9%-1.4Dewar61%Reaves35%Dumba33%Middleton25%$0.76M0.9%$2.8M3.3%+$2.0M

Game log

Every regular-season game, one night at a time: the box score, then the net goals that game added to his rating, by component, in goals. The season table above shows the same per 84 games. Click a column to sort.

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2026-27 projection

How it was builthis last five seasons, aged, weighted by recency, shrunk toward a prior

-0.7 NG/84 · 3 projected GP → -0.0 net goals over the season

The seasons behind it (NG/84)
SeasonGPNG/84Age adjAged
2022-2359+0.03-0.28-0.24
2023-2420-1.18-0.51-1.70
Component by component (NG/84)
His rateMemorynPriorTrustProjected
EV offense-1.090.9 yr68-0.1960%-0.73
EV defense+1.130.9 yr68+0.2041%+0.58
Power play+0.050.9 yr68-0.1155%-0.02
Penalty kill+0.491.2 yr73-0.0338%+0.17
Finishing-0.764.3 yr79-0.3036%-0.47
Playmaking-1.152.4 yr78-0.5285%-1.05
Suppression+1.040.9 yr68-0.00100%+1.04
Penalties-0.654.3 yr79-0.1369%-0.49
Faceoffs+0.280.9 yr68-0.1584%+0.21
Shootout+0.0413.5 yr79+0.030%+0.03
NG/84-0.61-1.20-0.73

1. Age. Every past season is first moved to his 2026-27 age along each component's career curve (Age adj: what a typical player gains or loses between that age and this one). Games from 2026-27 so far count like 2025-26 games, with no age adjustment. 2. Recency. Per component, the seasons are averaged with weights that fall off with age; Memory is the half-life in seasons, fitted walk-forward (penalty kill and EV defense change fast, finishing and playmaking slowly). 3. Shrinkage. Each component is pulled toward the average forward who reached the NHL at 22-23 (Prior). Trust = n / (n + K): n is the effective number of games behind the weighted rate, K how many games of evidence that component needs before it outweighs the prior (fitted walk-forward on 2013-2025-26 seasons, then every K is multiplied by 0.5: shrinking the ten components one at a time ignores that a player above the prior in one is usually above it in the others, which compressed the total by about a fifth). Projected = Trust × his rate + (1 − Trust) × Prior. The ten projected components add up to his NG/84, the number the standings simulation dresses him at. Proj GP = games played so far plus the games the standings simulation dresses him for (injuries from ESPN return dates; goalies split 65/35 starter/backup).

Over time

Career net goalsrunning total vs a league-average player
'22'24MIN+1-1

Games and opponents

Single-game net goalsshare of his 82 games by that night’s total
10%20%30%-0.30 to -0.20 net goals: 14.6% of games (12)-0.20 to -0.10 net goals: 17.1% of games (14)-0.10 to +0.00 net goals: 28.0% of games (23)+0.00 to +0.10 net goals: 13.4% of games (11)+0.10 to +0.20 net goals: 9.8% of games (8)+0.20 to +0.30 net goals: 6.1% of games (5)+0.30 to +0.40 net goals: 2.4% of games (2)+0.40 to +0.50 net goals: 1.2% of games (1)+0.50 to +0.60 net goals: 3.7% of games (3)+0.60 to +0.70 net goals: 1.2% of games (1)+0.70 to +0.80 net goals: 1.2% of games (1)+0.90 to +1.00 net goals: 1.2% of games (1)-2-10+1+2+3mean +0.0237%above 060%below 0
Best game +0.93 net goals · Mar 21, 2023 at NJD (W 2–1 OT) · Game recap →
Vs competition quartilescareer at 5v5, opposing fives ranked by average net goals/84
NET GOALS/84 VS AVERAGE, SAME QUARTILESHARE OF 5v5 TIME■ HOME ■ AWAYvs Q4 Toughestopposing five avg +1.8Career vs Q4: -9.4 net goals/84 above an average forward facing the same quartile; 115 min = 16% of his 5v5. Goals in those minutes: EV off -0.7, EV def -0.0, finishing -0.9, playmaking/suppression share -0.0; on-ice xGF% 26.2 (league 44.9), goals 1-7-9.4Home games: 64 of 366 career 5v5 min vs Q4 (17.4%; 25% = the league-wide split; all games 15.9%)17%Away games: 51 of 358 career 5v5 min vs Q4 (14.4%; 25% = the league-wide split; all games 15.9%)14%vs Q3 Toughopposing five avg +0.4Career vs Q3: +2.6 net goals/84 above an average forward facing the same quartile; 177 min = 25% of his 5v5. Goals in those minutes: EV off -0.4, EV def +0.6, finishing +0.3, playmaking/suppression share +0.0; on-ice xGF% 47.2 (league 48.7), goals 3-6+2.6Home games: 99 of 366 career 5v5 min vs Q3 (27.2%; 25% = the league-wide split; all games 24.5%)27%Away games: 78 of 358 career 5v5 min vs Q3 (21.8%; 25% = the league-wide split; all games 24.5%)22%vs Q2 Easyopposing five avg -0.3Career vs Q2: +2.9 net goals/84 above an average forward facing the same quartile; 199 min = 28% of his 5v5. Goals in those minutes: EV off -0.3, EV def +0.6, finishing +0.6, playmaking/suppression share -0.0; on-ice xGF% 50.8 (league 51.1), goals 7-5+2.9Home games: 93 of 366 career 5v5 min vs Q2 (25.4%; 25% = the league-wide split; all games 27.5%)25%Away games: 106 of 358 career 5v5 min vs Q2 (29.7%; 25% = the league-wide split; all games 27.5%)30%vs Q1 Easiestopposing five avg -1.2Career vs Q1: +1.5 net goals/84 above an average forward facing the same quartile; 232 min = 32% of his 5v5. Goals in those minutes: EV off -0.1, EV def +0.7, finishing +0.3, playmaking/suppression share +0.0; on-ice xGF% 56.4 (league 55.9), goals 10-6+1.5Home games: 110 of 366 career 5v5 min vs Q1 (30.0%; 25% = the league-wide split; all games 32.1%)30%Away games: 122 of 358 career 5v5 min vs Q1 (34.2%; 25% = the league-wide split; all games 32.1%)34%25% = even−12.60+12.6

Plus/minus by situation

+/− by manpowerthe official +/- split by situation; goalie-in +/- leaves out the empty nets
Even strengthPower playPenalty killGoalie pulled
SeasonTeamGP+/−5v54v43v35v45v34v34v53v53v46v55v6OtherGoalie in
2021-22MIN3-2-200000000000-2
2022-23MIN59-1-300000+3000-100
2023-24MIN2000000000000000
Total82-3-500000+3000-10-2

How each state adds to the official +/-: at even strength every goal counts; on his power play only a shorthanded goal against counts (a minus), on his penalty kill only a shorthanded goal for (a plus). Other is whatever the official +/- has left, so each row adds up: mostly empty-net goals against while his team pulled its goalie on a power play (6-on-4). Goalie in = the official +/- without 6v5 and 5v6. 6v5 and 5v6 +/- do not carry over from season to season (r 0.02 and 0.15): they mostly show who is sent out when a goalie is pulled. Since 2010-11; hover a cell for minutes and the goals behind it.

Shots

Shot mixhis shots on goal by type and location, 2010-11 on
ShareTotal shotsAvg dist (ft)xGGG/xGNet goals/84
Wrist50%60483.320.60–
Snap13%15391.432.18–
Slap17%20500.700.00–
Backhand7%8240.61––
Tip-in6%7240.90––
Deflection2%2170.30––
Other6%780.71––
Total119417.870.90-0.9

The rink is drawn from his side: he attacks left to right, his left on top. Right half: where his own shots come from. Left half: where he blocks shots (blocks carry no shot type, so that half ignores the type buttons). Blue = a bigger share of those shots from that zone than the league average for forwards in the same situation (and shot type, when one is picked); red = a smaller share.

5. Shaw opens the scoring — 0.190 xG backhand · Nov 1, 2022 vs MTL on Jake Allen — watch the clip54. Shaw scores goal — 0.128 xG snap · Dec 7, 2022 at CGY on Dan Vladar — watch the clip43. Shaw scores goal — 0.087 xG wrist · Mar 15, 2023 at STL on Jordan Binnington — watch the clip32. Shaw kicks off scoring — 0.042 xG other · Mar 21, 2023 at NJD on Vitek Vanecek — watch the clip21. Shaw's shot bounces in — 0.009 xG snap · Nov 23, 2022 vs WPG on Connor Hellebuyck — watch the clip1HIS OWN ZONE · SHOTS HE BLOCKEDATTACKING ZONE · HIS SHOTS
his blocked shots vs forwards · n=34 · ±0.30pphis shots on goal vs forwards · n=119 · ±0.30pp
Best finishes on videohis lowest-xG goals with a highlight clip (2018-19 on), starred on the rink above
xGHighlightDateOppGoalieSitShot
★10.009Shaw's shot bounces in ▸Nov 23, 2022vs WPGConnor HellebuyckEVSnap
★20.042Shaw kicks off scoring ▸Mar 21, 2023at NJDVitek VanecekEVOther
★30.087Shaw scores goal ▸Mar 15, 2023at STLJordan BinningtonEVWrist
★40.128Shaw scores goal ▸Dec 7, 2022at CGYDan VladarEVSnap
★50.190Shaw opens the scoring ▸Nov 1, 2022vs MTLJake AllenEVBackhand

Goalie matchups

Career G − xG by goaliegoalies he has scored on most and least relative to xG
Most success against
GoalieGmSOGGxGG−xG
Dan Vladar1210.1+0.8
Jake Allen1210.2+0.8
Joonas Korpisalo2210.3+0.7
Least success against
GoalieGmSOGGxGG−xG
Martin Jones3600.6-0.6
Juuse Saros3800.6-0.6
Ilya Sorokin1200.4-0.4