Tonight: 9 gamesModel estimates, not official NHL statistics
puckmodel
ANABOSBUFCARCBJCGYCHICOLDALDETEDMFLALAKMINMTLNJDNSHNYINYROTTPHIPITSEASJSSTLTBLTORUTAVANVGKWPGWSHUFA
Minnesota Wild › Filip Gustavsson
Filip Gustavsson
G · #32 · MIN · 28
Career shot-quality totals
6,355
Shots faced
568
GA
595.1
xGA
+37.1
GSAx
0.9106
Sv%
0.9064
xSv%
-1.1
Reb/100 vs lg
SeasonTeamGGoaltendingEloContract
GSAx/84SOReb/100Cap hit% of capGSAx/84
per $M
2020-21OTT9+48.1+0.2+24$0.76M0.9%+63.11
2021-22OTT18-11.2+1.5-0.3-39$0.79M1.0%-14.16
2022-23MIN39+61.6-2.0-1.2+79$0.79M1.0%+78.17
2023-24MIN45+8.9+1.2-1.9-13$3.75M4.5%+2.36
2024-25MIN58+18.9-0.2-0.9+13$3.75M4.3%+5.04
2025-26MIN50-19.8-2.0-0.4+48$3.75M3.9%-5.29
2020-21OTT9+1.9+0.2+24$0.76M0.9%+2.49
2021-22OTT18+0.8+1.5-0.3-39$0.79M1.0%+1.07
2022-23MIN39+9.9-2.0-1.2+79$0.79M1.0%+12.61
2023-24MIN45+9.0+1.2-1.9-13$3.75M4.5%+2.40
2024-25MIN58+11.3-0.2-0.9+13$3.75M4.3%+3.01
2025-26MIN50+5.1-2.0-0.4+48$3.75M3.9%+1.36
2020-21OTT9+1.8+0.21524$0.76M0.9%+2.40
2021-22OTT27+0.7+1.7-0.31481$0.77M1.0%+0.95
2022-23MIN66+9.0-0.3-0.91564$0.78M1.0%+11.59
2023-24MIN111+9.3+0.9-1.41538$1.52M1.8%+6.10
2024-25MIN169+10.8+0.7-1.21544$1.97M2.3%+5.48
2025-26MIN219+7.2-1.3-1.01583$2.26M2.6%+3.16
SeasonTeamGGoaltending
GSAx/84Reb/100
2022-23MIN5+82.4-1.8
2024-25MIN6+1.8-3.1
2025-26MIN1-131.5-0.5
2022-23MIN5+82.4-1.8
2024-25MIN11+38.4-2.5
2025-26MIN12+24.3-2.4
84-gameform'21'22'23'24'25'26+44.2-15.1-15.1
Careernet goals'21'22'23'24'25'26+60+37
Single-gameGSAx2%4%6%≤ -4.75 GSAx: 0.5% of games (1)-4.25 to -4.00 GSAx: 0.5% of games (1)-4.00 to -3.75 GSAx: 1.4% of games (3)-3.50 to -3.25 GSAx: 1.4% of games (3)-3.00 to -2.75 GSAx: 1.4% of games (3)-2.75 to -2.50 GSAx: 0.5% of games (1)-2.50 to -2.25 GSAx: 5.0% of games (11)-2.25 to -2.00 GSAx: 3.2% of games (7)-2.00 to -1.75 GSAx: 4.1% of games (9)-1.75 to -1.50 GSAx: 5.0% of games (11)-1.50 to -1.25 GSAx: 5.0% of games (11)-1.25 to -1.00 GSAx: 2.7% of games (6)-1.00 to -0.75 GSAx: 3.2% of games (7)-0.75 to -0.50 GSAx: 3.7% of games (8)-0.50 to -0.25 GSAx: 2.7% of games (6)-0.25 to +0.00 GSAx: 6.4% of games (14)+0.00 to +0.25 GSAx: 5.5% of games (12)+0.25 to +0.50 GSAx: 4.6% of games (10)+0.50 to +0.75 GSAx: 5.9% of games (13)+0.75 to +1.00 GSAx: 3.2% of games (7)+1.00 to +1.25 GSAx: 5.9% of games (13)+1.25 to +1.50 GSAx: 3.2% of games (7)+1.50 to +1.75 GSAx: 7.3% of games (16)+1.75 to +2.00 GSAx: 1.8% of games (4)+2.00 to +2.25 GSAx: 2.3% of games (5)+2.25 to +2.50 GSAx: 0.9% of games (2)+2.50 to +2.75 GSAx: 1.8% of games (4)+2.75 to +3.00 GSAx: 5.0% of games (11)+3.00 to +3.25 GSAx: 0.9% of games (2)+3.25 to +3.50 GSAx: 0.9% of games (2)+3.50 to +3.75 GSAx: 1.8% of games (4)+3.75 to +4.00 GSAx: 0.5% of games (1)+5.25 to +5.50 GSAx: 0.5% of games (1)+6.00 to +6.25 GSAx: 0.5% of games (1)+6.50 to +6.75 GSAx: 0.5% of games (1)≥ +7.75 GSAx: 0.5% of games (1)-4-20+2+4+6+8mean +0.1753%above 047%below 0
Best game +7.79 GSAx · Feb 28, 2023 vs NYI (W 2–1 SO) · Game recap →
SAVE MAP — SV% ABOVE LOCATION-EXPECTED (±6PP)
Career G − xG by shootershooters he has stopped best and worst relative to xG
Most success against
ShooterGmSOGGxGxG−G
Matthew Tkachuk93004.0+4.0
Conor Garland82403.3+3.3
Frank Vatrano72502.7+2.7
Least success against
ShooterGmSOGGxGxG−G
Clayton Keller71761.9-4.1
Nino Niederreiter4951.8-3.2
Jake Neighbours91451.8-3.2
2026-27 projectionhow his projected goaltending (GSAx net of the suppression debit) was built

+0.4 GSAx/84 · 24 projected GP → +0.1 goals saved over the season

SeasonGPGSAx/84Weight
2021-2218-11.160.09
2022-2339+61.550.17
2023-2445+8.870.30
2024-2558+18.910.55
2025-2650-19.841.00
Weighted104+1.09
Projected+0.3532% kept

Each season's GSAx (goals saved above expected, less his share of the skaters' suppression credit, plus his shootout record) is weighted by recency: 2025-26 counts fully, each season before it 0.55 times the one after, and 2026-27 so far counts like 2025-26. The weighted rate, +1.1 GSAx/84 over 104 weighted games, is shrunk toward zero (league average) by 219 pseudo-games: 104 / (104 + 219) = 32% of it is kept, so +1.1 × 0.32 = +0.4. Goaltending is the least repeatable input in the model, hence the heavy shrinkage. Proj GP = games played so far plus the games the standings simulation dresses him for (injuries from ESPN return dates; goalies split 65/35 starter/backup).