MIN beat NYI 2–1 in a shootout. MIN lost the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 3.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Ryan Reaves scored at 18:00 of the first, moving MIN’s win probability from 35% to 53%. Filip Gustavsson saved 4.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYI–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 14:15 | NYI | Josh Bailey from Scott Mayfield, Otto Koivula | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 18:00 | MIN | Ryan Reaves from Jordan Greenway | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Bailey R | 12:21 | 1 | +0.43 | −0.20 | +0.64 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Ryan Pulock D | 22:39 | +0.40 | +0.39 | −0.05 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 19:55 | +0.16 | +0.22 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | ||
| Scott Mayfield D | 25:02 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Pelech D | 24:55 | +0.07 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Hudson Fasching R | 15:48 | +0.06 | +0.14 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Alexander Romanov D | 20:24 | +0.05 | +0.08 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Johnston L | 3:04 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Otto Koivula L | 5:53 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Matt Martin L | 18:24 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho D | 14:21 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 17:55 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Holmstrom R | 11:31 | −0.20 | +0.24 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.33 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 19:57 | −0.49 | +0.06 | −0.56 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 18:49 | −0.52 | +0.14 | −0.65 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Kyle Palmieri C | 20:26 | −0.63 | +0.00 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.51 | ||
| Bo Horvat C | 23:51 | −0.65 | +0.27 | −0.63 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.11 | −0.39 | ||
| Zach Parise L | 17:45 | −1.02 | +0.13 | −0.96 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin G | 65:00 | +1.42 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 15:46 | +0.90 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.99 | ||
| Ryan Reaves R | 6:46 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.04 | +0.81 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Connor Dewar C | 8:28 | +0.06 | +0.08 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Brandon Duhaime R | 11:21 | +0.06 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 22:46 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jon Merrill D | 15:43 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 13:21 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.09 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Calen Addison D | 17:51 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 22:23 | −0.14 | +0.10 | −0.22 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 15:50 | −0.21 | −0.09 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Mason Shaw C | 9:06 | −0.27 | +0.04 | −0.31 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 20:03 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.29 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Matt Boldy L | 22:10 | −0.31 | −0.33 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Alex Goligoski D | 21:38 | −0.33 | −0.28 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathew Dumba D | 23:06 | −0.35 | −0.28 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 21:07 | −0.50 | −0.37 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | ||
| Mats Zuccarello C | 23:14 | −0.71 | −0.12 | −0.31 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.33 | ||
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 24:21 | −1.29 | −0.27 | −0.65 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.39 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Filip Gustavsson G | 65:00 | +4.17 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.