Tonight: 9 gamesModel estimates, not official NHL statistics
puckmodel
ANABOSBUFCARCBJCGYCHICOLDALDETEDMFLALAKMINMTLNJDNSHNYINYROTTPHIPITSEASJSSTLTBLTORUTAVANVGKWPGWSHUFA
Carolina Hurricanes › Alexander Nikishin
Alexander Nikishin
D · #21 · CAR · 25
Average career stats over an 84-game season
11
G
23
A
34
P
+19
+/−
34
PIM
18:11
TOI/GP
1:26
PP TOI/GP
1:05
SH TOI/GP
SeasonTeamTypeGPBox scoreSO
G/Att		Net goals per 84 gamesEloPlayoffsOn-ice contextContract
GAP+/−PIMEV offEV defPPPKFinPlaySuppPenFOSOOverallCompTop oppMatesTop linematesCap hit% of capNG/84
per $M
2025-26CAR81112233+18330/1+1.615:39+0.5+0.01:26+0.71:05+2.4+1.5-0.1+0.2+0.0-0.5+6.3+62+0.917 GP-0.2Drysdale 2%+3.5Blake 33%Stankoven 33%Hall 31%Ehlers 24%$0.93M1.0%+6.77
2025-26CAR81112233+18330/1+0.815:39+0.2+0.01:26+0.21:05+0.4+0.8-0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0+2.4+62+0.917 GP-0.2Drysdale 2%+3.5Blake 33%Stankoven 33%Hall 31%Ehlers 24%$0.93M1.0%+2.55
2025-26CAR81112233+18330/1+0.815:39+0.1+0.01:26+0.11:05+0.4+0.9-0.6+0.1+0.0-0.0+1.81562+0.917 GP-0.2Drysdale 2%+3.5Blake 33%Stankoven 33%Hall 31%Ehlers 24%$0.93M1.0%+1.93
SeasonTeamGPBox scoreNet goals per 84 games
GAP+/−PIMEV offEV defPPPKFinPlaySuppPenFOSOOverall
2025-26CAR17011-12+0.2+1.9+0.2+0.3-1.4-2.2-0.5+2.2+0.0+0.0+0.9
2025-26CAR17011-12+0.2+1.9+0.2+0.3-1.4-2.2-0.5+2.2+0.0+0.0+0.9
NHL Edge — tracking, 2021-22 on
SeasonShot mphSpeed mph22+ /GP20–22 /GP18–20 /GPMiles /60
2025-2699.422.40.040.83.78.8

2026-27 projection

How it was builthis last five seasons, aged, weighted by recency, shrunk toward a prior

+2.1 NG/84 · 79 projected GP → +2.0 net goals over the season

The seasons behind it (NG/84)
SeasonGPNG/84Age adjAged
2025-2681+5.49-0.06+5.44
Component by component (NG/84)
His rateMemorynPriorTrustProjected
EV offense+1.611.2 yr81-0.1957%+0.83
EV defense+0.410.7 yr81+0.1833%+0.26
Power play+0.090.9 yr81+0.0135%+0.04
Penalty kill+0.661.2 yr81-0.0428%+0.15
Finishing+2.324.3 yr81-0.0622%+0.47
Playmaking+1.132.4 yr81-0.0674%+0.82
Suppression-0.560.9 yr81+0.00100%-0.56
Penalties+0.234.3 yr81-0.0353%+0.11
Faceoffs-0.000.9 yr81-0.0075%-0.00
Shootout-0.4613.5 yr81-0.000%-0.01
NG/84+5.44-0.19+2.12

1. Age. Every past season is first moved to his 2026-27 age along each component's career curve (Age adj: what a typical player gains or loses between that age and this one). Games from 2026-27 so far count like 2025-26 games, with no age adjustment. 2. Recency. Per component, the seasons are averaged with weights that fall off with age; Memory is the half-life in seasons, fitted walk-forward (penalty kill and EV defense change fast, finishing and playmaking slowly). 3. Shrinkage. Each component is pulled toward the average defenseman who reached the NHL at 22-23 (Prior). Trust = n / (n + K): n is the effective number of games behind the weighted rate, K how many games of evidence that component needs before it outweighs the prior (fitted walk-forward on 2013-2025-26 seasons). Projected = Trust × his rate + (1 − Trust) × Prior. The ten projected components add up to his NG/84, the number the standings simulation dresses him at. Proj GP = games played so far plus the games the standings simulation dresses him for (injuries from ESPN return dates; goalies split 65/35 starter/backup).

Over time

Career net goalsrunning total vs a league-average player
'26+5

Games and opponents

Single-game net goalsshare of his 81 games by that night’s total
5%10%15%20%-0.60 to -0.50 net goals: 1.2% of games (1)-0.50 to -0.40 net goals: 2.5% of games (2)-0.40 to -0.30 net goals: 6.2% of games (5)-0.30 to -0.20 net goals: 9.9% of games (8)-0.20 to -0.10 net goals: 6.2% of games (5)-0.10 to +0.00 net goals: 18.5% of games (15)+0.00 to +0.10 net goals: 22.2% of games (18)+0.10 to +0.20 net goals: 11.1% of games (9)+0.20 to +0.30 net goals: 4.9% of games (4)+0.30 to +0.40 net goals: 4.9% of games (4)+0.40 to +0.50 net goals: 2.5% of games (2)+0.50 to +0.60 net goals: 2.5% of games (2)+0.60 to +0.70 net goals: 2.5% of games (2)+0.70 to +0.80 net goals: 3.7% of games (3)+1.80 to +1.90 net goals: 1.2% of games (1)-2-10+1+2+3mean +0.0753%above 044%below 0
Best game +1.86 net goals · Mar 20, 2026 at TOR (W 4–3 OT) · Game recap →
Vs competition quartilescareer at 5v5, opposing fives ranked by average net goals/84
NET GOALS/84 VS AVERAGE, SAME QUARTILESHARE OF 5v5 TIME■ HOME ■ AWAYvs Q4 Toughestopposing five avg +2.0Career vs Q4: -3.9 net goals/84 above an average defenseman facing the same quartile; 200 min = 17% of his 5v5. Goals in those minutes: EV off -0.2, EV def -0.3, finishing -0.4, playmaking/suppression share -0.0; on-ice xGF% 42.9 (league 45.6), goals 8-7-3.9Home games: 89 of 601 career 5v5 min vs Q4 (14.8%; 25% = the league-wide split; all games 16.8%)15%Away games: 111 of 588 career 5v5 min vs Q4 (18.9%; 25% = the league-wide split; all games 16.8%)19%vs Q3 Toughopposing five avg +0.5Career vs Q3: -0.5 net goals/84 above an average defenseman facing the same quartile; 287 min = 24% of his 5v5. Goals in those minutes: EV off +0.4, EV def -0.7, finishing +0.0, playmaking/suppression share -0.0; on-ice xGF% 49.9 (league 48.9), goals 15-13-0.5Home games: 143 of 601 career 5v5 min vs Q3 (23.8%; 25% = the league-wide split; all games 24.1%)24%Away games: 144 of 588 career 5v5 min vs Q3 (24.5%; 25% = the league-wide split; all games 24.1%)24%vs Q2 Easyopposing five avg -0.4Career vs Q2: +5.1 net goals/84 above an average defenseman facing the same quartile; 332 min = 28% of his 5v5. Goals in those minutes: EV off +0.5, EV def +0.3, finishing +0.8, playmaking/suppression share -0.0; on-ice xGF% 56.0 (league 50.8), goals 13-10+5.1Home games: 174 of 601 career 5v5 min vs Q2 (28.9%; 25% = the league-wide split; all games 27.9%)29%Away games: 158 of 588 career 5v5 min vs Q2 (26.9%; 25% = the league-wide split; all games 27.9%)27%vs Q1 Easiestopposing five avg -1.3Career vs Q1: +0.1 net goals/84 above an average defenseman facing the same quartile; 371 min = 31% of his 5v5. Goals in those minutes: EV off +0.6, EV def +0.7, finishing -0.7, playmaking/suppression share -0.0; on-ice xGF% 65.8 (league 55.5), goals 20-11+0.1Home games: 195 of 601 career 5v5 min vs Q1 (32.5%; 25% = the league-wide split; all games 31.2%)33%Away games: 175 of 588 career 5v5 min vs Q1 (29.8%; 25% = the league-wide split; all games 31.2%)30%25% = even−12.60+12.6

Plus/minus by situation

+/− by manpowerthe official +/- split by situation; goalie-in +/- leaves out the empty nets
Even strengthPower playPenalty killGoalie pulled
SeasonTeamGP+/−5v54v43v35v45v34v34v53v53v46v55v6OtherGoalie in
2025-26CAR81+18+14+3+1-100+300-3+10+20
Total81+18+14+3+1-100+300-3+10+20

How each state adds to the official +/-: at even strength every goal counts; on his power play only a shorthanded goal against counts (a minus), on his penalty kill only a shorthanded goal for (a plus). Other is whatever the official +/- has left, so each row adds up: mostly empty-net goals against while his team pulled its goalie on a power play (6-on-4). Goalie in = the official +/- without 6v5 and 5v6. 6v5 and 5v6 +/- do not carry over from season to season (r 0.02 and 0.15): they mostly show who is sent out when a goalie is pulled. Since 2010-11; hover a cell for minutes and the goals behind it.

Shots

Shot mixhis shots on goal by type and location, 2010-11 on
ShareTotal shotsAvg dist (ft)xGGG/xGNet goals/84
Wrist22%27511.610.62–
Snap39%48462.941.37–
Slap37%45552.762.21–
Backhand2%2150.20––
Total122507.5111.47+3.6

The rink is drawn from his side: he attacks left to right, his left on top. Right half: where his own shots come from. Left half: where he blocks shots (blocks carry no shot type, so that half ignores the type buttons). Blue = a bigger share of those shots from that zone than the league average for defensemen in the same situation (and shot type, when one is picked); red = a smaller share.

5. MTL@CAR: Nikishin scores PPG against Jakub Dobeš — 0.057 xG slap · Jan 1, 2026 vs MTL on Jakub Dobes — watch the clip54. Nikishin hammers one-timer for PPG — 0.045 xG slap · Mar 7, 2026 at CGY on Dustin Wolf — watch the clip43. FLA@CAR: Nikishin scores PPG against Sergei Bobrovsky — 0.033 xG slap · Jan 16, 2026 vs FLA on Sergei Bobrovsky — watch the clip32. CAR@PHI: Nikishin scores goal against Samuel Ersson — 0.021 xG slap · Dec 13, 2025 at PHI on Samuel Ersson — watch the clip21. WPG@CAR: Nikishin scores goal against Thomas Milic — 0.015 xG slap · Nov 28, 2025 vs WPG on Thomas Milic — watch the clip1HIS OWN ZONE · SHOTS HE BLOCKEDATTACKING ZONE · HIS SHOTS
his blocked shots vs defensemen · n=92 · ±0.30pphis shots on goal vs defensemen · n=119 · ±0.30pp
Best finishes on videohis lowest-xG goals with a highlight clip (2018-19 on), starred on the rink above
xGHighlightDateOppGoalieSitShot
★10.015WPG@CAR: Nikishin scores goal against Thomas Milic ▸Nov 28, 2025vs WPGThomas MilicEVSlap
★20.021CAR@PHI: Nikishin scores goal against Samuel Ersson ▸Dec 13, 2025at PHISamuel ErssonEVSlap
★30.033FLA@CAR: Nikishin scores PPG against Sergei Bobrovsky ▸Jan 16, 2026vs FLASergei BobrovskyPPSlap
★40.045Nikishin hammers one-timer for PPG ▸Mar 7, 2026at CGYDustin WolfPPSlap
★50.057MTL@CAR: Nikishin scores PPG against Jakub Dobeš ▸Jan 1, 2026vs MTLJakub DobesPPSlap

Goalie matchups

Career G − xG by goaliegoalies he has scored on most and least relative to xG
Most success against
GoalieGmSOGGxGG−xG
Dustin Wolf1110.1+0.9
Elvis Merzlikins1110.1+0.9
Thomas Milic1510.1+0.9
Least success against
GoalieGmSOGGxGG−xG
Jacob Markstrom2500.5-0.5
Devin Cooley1200.4-0.4
Tristan Jarry1300.4-0.4