CAR beat TOR 4–3 in overtime. CAR also won the expected-goals battle 4.3 to 2.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Alexander Nikishin scored at 0:41 of overtime, moving CAR’s win probability from 48% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 11:48 | TOR | Dakota Joshua from Bo Groulx, Matias Maccelli | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 5:57 |  CAR | Jordan StaalPP from Seth Jarvis, Sebastian Aho | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 12:35 | CAR | Eric RobinsonPP unassisted | 2–1 | 47% → 69% |
| P2 13:47 | TOR | John Tavares from Calle Jarnkrok, Jake McCabe | 2–2 | 30% → 53% |
| P2 17:40 | CAR | K'Andre MillerSH unassisted | 3–2 | 47% → 71% |
| P3 13:50 | TOR | William Nylander from Matias Maccelli | 3–3 | 15% → 51% |
| OT 0:41 | CAR | Alexander Nikishin from Seth Jarvis, Sebastian Aho | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K'Andre Miller D | 23:58 | 1 | +0.97 | +0.21 | +0.78 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Staal C | 18:03 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.06 | +0.63 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Alexander Nikishin D | 14:23 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.18 | +0.51 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Eric Robinson L | 8:25 | 1 | +0.45 | −0.01 | +0.47 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 18:00 | +0.28 | +0.02 | −0.15 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Reilly D | 9:07 | +0.06 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 16:31 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jalen Chatfield D | 22:07 | −0.04 | +0.11 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 18:47 | 2 | −0.10 | +0.09 | −0.23 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Logan Stankoven C | 16:32 | −0.13 | +0.34 | −0.43 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Seth Jarvis R | 17:56 | 2 | −0.13 | +0.08 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 14:36 | −0.14 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 23:58 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Walker D | 20:42 | −0.15 | +0.24 | −0.36 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Jankowski L | 10:40 | −0.18 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| William Carrier L | 9:32 | −0.19 | −0.03 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Taylor Hall L | 17:39 | −0.21 | +0.27 | −0.56 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jackson Blake R | 17:07 | −0.30 | +0.26 | −0.56 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Bussi G | 60:41 | −0.25 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Tavares C | 16:12 | 1 | +0.46 | −0.03 | +0.45 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Dakota Joshua C | 11:25 | 1 | +0.41 | −0.18 | +0.60 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| William Nylander R | 20:39 | 1 | +0.35 | −0.14 | +0.49 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Steven Lorentz C | 12:18 | +0.07 | −0.03 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Carlo D | 16:24 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 22:55 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 14:46 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Max Domi C | 15:36 | −0.08 | +0.06 | −0.17 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Simon Benoit D | 21:28 | −0.10 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Quillan C | 10:12 | −0.11 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matias Maccelli L | 12:59 | 2 | −0.13 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Troy Stecher D | 21:41 | −0.23 | −0.20 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Knies L | 20:01 | −0.23 | −0.21 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Easton Cowan R | 12:21 | −0.25 | +0.05 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 18:33 | −0.33 | −0.20 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicholas Robertson L | 10:39 | −0.38 | +0.00 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Bo Groulx C | 15:53 | 1 | −0.52 | −0.34 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 18:01 | −0.55 | −0.20 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joseph Woll G | 60:41 | +0.67 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.