WSH took this one from NYR, 3–1. WSH also won the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 2.7. The better chances went the right way, which is how the model likes it. The biggest swing: Boone Jenner scored at 17:38 of the second, taking WSH’s win probability from 53% to 76%. In net, Logan Thompson saved 2.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
How it felt from the stands, priced second by second by the site’s win-probability model: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Who was actually getting the chances: a running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Not the arena’s picks, the model’s. Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYR–WSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 10:17 |  NYR | Alexis LafrenièrePP from J.T. Miller, Pavel Dorofeyev | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 6:08 |  WSH | Timothy Liljegren from Dylan Strome, Ryan Leonard | 1–1 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 17:38 | WSH | Boone Jenner unassisted | 1–2 | 53% → 76% |
| P3 19:59 | WSH | Tom WilsonEN from Vincent Desharnais | 1–3 | 98% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 18:46 | 1 | +0.47 | +0.18 | +0.43 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jaroslav Chmelar R | 9:38 | +0.13 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mika Zibanejad C | 19:02 | +0.07 | +0.16 | −0.11 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Adam Fox D | 23:11 | +0.06 | +0.14 | −0.01 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 20:29 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.05 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alberts Smits D | 14:24 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Braden Schneider D | 17:37 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Laba C | 13:42 | −0.14 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 9:18 | −0.15 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gabe Perreault R | 16:28 | −0.15 | −0.03 | −0.27 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 19:33 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.07 | −0.28 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| J.T. Miller C | 20:55 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.14 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Tye Kartye L | 15:26 | −0.17 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eeli Tolvanen R | 11:49 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.09 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Cuylle L | 16:38 | −0.24 | −0.06 | −0.09 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 19:11 | −0.28 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Durzi D | 18:52 | −0.40 | −0.34 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Beaudoin C | 10:56 | −0.46 | −0.21 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Igor Shesterkin G | 28:20 | +0.52 |
| Dylan Garand G | 29:45 | +0.02 |
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timothy Liljegren D | 19:14 | 1 | +0.52 | +0.10 | +0.45 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Martin Fehérváry D | 23:57 | +0.30 | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Boone Jenner C | 13:37 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.15 | +0.26 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Justin Sourdif C | 14:07 | +0.15 | +0.15 | −0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Vincent Desharnais D | 21:15 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Leonard R | 13:26 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.14 | −0.20 | +0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 10:19 | +0.03 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Dylan Strome C | 14:20 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.12 | −0.26 | +0.19 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Alex Ovechkin L | 13:57 | −0.04 | +0.14 | −0.13 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Protas L | 10:57 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Hutson D | 18:18 | −0.10 | +0.10 | −0.09 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Kyrou R | 12:05 | −0.11 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan McIlrath D | 4:59 | −0.16 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tom Wilson R | 21:41 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.24 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Aliaksei Protas L | 15:35 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 20:02 | −0.20 | +0.03 | −0.08 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 20:25 | −0.25 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakob Chychrun D | 26:53 | −0.34 | −0.06 | −0.20 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson G | 60:00 | +2.04 |
One game is a tiny sample: a single goal against on a player’s shift or a lucky finish moves his net goals a lot, so don’t trade anyone over a rough night. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they’re built.