SJS took this one from STL, 3–2 in overtime. Call it a steal: SJS lost the expected-goals battle 2.4 to 3.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality didn’t support. The goal that mattered most: Darnell Nurse scored at 1:03 of overtime and moved SJS’s win probability from 48% to 100%. A tough night in net for Joel Hofer: he allowed 1.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
How it felt from the stands, priced second by second by the site’s win-probability model: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Who was actually getting the chances: a running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Not the arena’s picks, the model’s. Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–STL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:52 |  STL | Connor McMichael from Mason McTavish, Jonatan Berggren | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P2 8:48 |  SJS | Tyler Toffoli from Michael Misa, Jacob Trouba | 1–1 | 27% → 47% |
| P3 1:39 | STL | Dillon DubeSH unassisted | 1–2 | 51% → 77% |
| P3 6:05 | SJS | Collin Graf from Sam Dickinson, Tyler Toffoli | 2–2 | 20% → 48% |
| OT 1:03 | SJS | Darnell Nurse from Ivar Stenberg, Alexander Wennberg | 3–2 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnell Nurse D | 22:38 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.10 | +0.59 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Collin Graf R | 14:16 | 1 | +0.42 | −0.00 | +0.25 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Misa C | 15:14 | 1 | +0.27 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.13 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Alexander Wennberg C | 20:00 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.03 | −0.11 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Tyler Toffoli C | 15:51 | 1 | 1 | +0.17 | −0.03 | +0.18 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Sam Dickinson D | 15:43 | 1 | +0.13 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ivar Stenberg L | 17:21 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.10 | +0.28 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ty Dellandrea C | 12:31 | −0.00 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 10:27 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 23:43 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.09 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 17:57 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 18:20 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zack Ostapchuk C | 12:30 | −0.16 | −0.06 | −0.12 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Michael Kesselring D | 16:56 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Igor Chernyshov L | 15:56 | −0.27 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luca Cagnoni D | 16:06 | −0.31 | −0.14 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Smith C | 15:33 | −0.37 | −0.24 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Mason Marchment L | 18:07 | −0.50 | −0.32 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Nedeljkovic G | 61:03 | +0.93 |
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dillon Dube C | 11:07 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.01 | +0.85 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colton Parayko D | 23:23 | +0.28 | +0.13 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor McMichael L | 16:08 | 1 | +0.17 | −0.10 | +0.40 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Jimmy Snuggerud R | 17:12 | +0.14 | +0.12 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Pius Suter C | 11:13 | +0.09 | +0.13 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Justin Barron D | 14:06 | +0.03 | +0.15 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonatan Berggren R | 12:17 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Holloway L | 17:27 | −0.04 | +0.14 | −0.14 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 19:35 | −0.07 | +0.06 | −0.06 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ross Johnston L | 8:02 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Thomas C | 20:37 | −0.12 | +0.12 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brandon Carlo D | 18:38 | −0.13 | +0.09 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Philip Broberg D | 24:25 | −0.18 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Neighbours L | 14:52 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.09 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dalibor Dvorsky R | 14:48 | −0.20 | −0.04 | −0.10 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 22:43 | −0.24 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Jiricek D | 14:18 | −0.27 | +0.04 | −0.04 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason McTavish C | 14:29 | 1 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.49 | +0.18 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joel Hofer G | 60:52 | −1.83 |
One game is a tiny sample: a single goal against on a player’s shift or a lucky finish moves his net goals a lot, so don’t trade anyone over a rough night. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they’re built.