TBL beat MIN 3–2. No robbery here: TBL also won the expected-goals battle 3.7 to 3.2, and the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Anthony Cirelli scored at 5:26 of the first, taking TBL’s win probability from 53% to 69%. Dennis Hildeby stood on his head: 3.8 goals saved above expected.
Win probability
How it felt from the stands, priced second by second by the site’s win-probability model: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Who was actually getting the chances: a running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Not the arena’s picks, the model’s. Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MIN–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:26 | TBL | Anthony Cirelli from Erik Cernak, Brandon Hagel | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 6:02 | TBL | John Carlson from Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point | 0–2 | 69% → 82% |
| P2 2:32 | MIN | Quinn Hughes from Bobby Brink, Jared Spurgeon | 1–2 | 14% → 28% |
| P2 4:55 | TBL | John CarlsonPP from Nikita Kucherov, Jake Guentzel | 1–3 | 73% → 87% |
| P2 14:01 | MIN | Blake ColemanPP from Kirill Kaprizov, Quinn Hughes | 2–3 | 11% → 25% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinn Hughes D | 32:36 | 1 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.31 | +0.43 | −0.19 | −0.07 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Jared Spurgeon D | 24:54 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.39 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 23:07 | 1 | +0.33 | +0.13 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bobby Brink R | 12:01 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Danila Yurov R | 11:23 | +0.10 | +0.13 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 11:15 | +0.02 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Yakov Trenin C | 12:47 | +0.00 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Coleman L | 14:20 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.07 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Matt Boldy L | 22:14 | −0.02 | +0.22 | −0.13 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Daemon Hunt D | 10:03 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 10:54 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Sturm C | 10:56 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.09 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| David Spacek D | 8:23 | −0.13 | −0.11 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 21:16 | −0.29 | +0.22 | −0.46 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Michael McCarron C | 10:50 | −0.34 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Jonas Brodin D | 23:00 | −0.40 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.10 | +0.06 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Maksim Shabanov R | 16:36 | −0.40 | +0.18 | −0.48 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 19:29 | −0.46 | −0.15 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jesper Wallstedt G | 59:03 | −0.24 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Carlson D | 16:48 | 2 | +0.65 | −0.01 | +0.67 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikita Kucherov R | 20:55 | 2 | +0.16 | −0.20 | −0.03 | +0.41 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Cirelli C | 19:25 | 1 | +0.16 | −0.08 | +0.10 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Erik Cernak D | 19:32 | 1 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.08 | +0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden Point C | 17:34 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.02 | −0.08 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Gage Goncalves C | 16:12 | +0.01 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Guentzel C | 21:12 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.07 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 14:26 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Victor Hedman D | 12:04 | −0.09 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charle-Edouard D'Astous D | 16:04 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.J. Moser D | 13:21 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McDonagh D | 17:16 | −0.12 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 15:08 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeffrey Viel L | 8:23 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.30 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Pontus Holmberg R | 14:02 | −0.32 | +0.03 | −0.10 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Geekie C | 10:30 | −0.35 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Brandon Hagel L | 22:55 | 1 | −0.42 | −0.05 | −0.38 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Max Crozier D | 21:02 | −0.65 | −0.28 | −0.08 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dennis Hildeby G | 59:37 | +3.81 |
One game is a tiny sample: a single goal against on a player’s shift or a lucky finish moves his net goals a lot, so don’t trade anyone over a rough night. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they’re built.