OTT took this one from PHI, 2–1. Call it a steal: OTT lost the expected-goals battle 2.4 to 3.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality didn’t support. The goal that mattered most: Carter Yakemchuk scored on the power play at 13:01 of the third and moved OTT’s win probability from 53% to 86%. Linus Ullmark stood on his head: 4.7 goals saved above expected.
Win probability
How it felt from the stands, priced second by second by the site’s win-probability model: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Who was actually getting the chances: a running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Not the arena’s picks, the model’s. Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PHI–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 10:14 |  OTT | Nick Cousins from Tyler Kleven, Warren Foegele | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
| P2 7:46 |  PHI | Matvei MichkovPP from Trevor Zegras, Travis Konecny | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P3 13:01 | OTT | Carter YakemchukPP from Claude Giroux, Shane Pinto | 1–2 | 53% → 86% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Drysdale D | 23:15 | +0.18 | +0.25 | −0.11 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Foerster R | 16:33 | +0.12 | −0.03 | −0.19 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.38 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Dvorak C | 16:02 | +0.09 | +0.22 | −0.00 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Nick Seeler D | 16:53 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Denver Barkey C | 11:50 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Trevor Zegras C | 19:25 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.11 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Noah Cates L | 11:50 | −0.07 | +0.04 | −0.11 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Noel Acciari C | 12:29 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Porter Martone R | 12:24 | −0.17 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matvei Michkov R | 15:20 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.12 | +0.19 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Simon Benoit D | 13:56 | −0.20 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| David Jiricek D | 18:25 | −0.24 | −0.06 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Konecny R | 17:04 | 1 | −0.26 | +0.08 | −0.27 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cam York D | 18:17 | −0.30 | −0.19 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Tippett R | 17:21 | −0.35 | +0.06 | −0.36 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Couturier C | 17:11 | −0.44 | −0.01 | −0.35 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Travis Sanheim D | 22:42 | −0.44 | +0.16 | −0.04 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.38 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Bunting L | 10:56 | −0.50 | −0.15 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joseph Woll G | 58:15 | −0.20 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Cousins C | 11:13 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.07 | +0.41 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Carter Yakemchuk D | 14:45 | 1 | +0.30 | −0.11 | +0.42 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shane Pinto C | 22:50 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.16 | −0.20 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.10 | |
| Tyler Kleven D | 18:29 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.11 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Warren Foegele L | 11:56 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Thomas Chabot D | 29:19 | +0.08 | +0.11 | −0.14 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Claude Giroux R | 19:43 | 1 | +0.05 | −0.25 | −0.00 | +0.15 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Ridly Greig C | 18:50 | +0.03 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Hoyt Stanley D | 10:21 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Stützle C | 20:14 | −0.00 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| William Eklund L | 1:24 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Amadio R | 17:28 | −0.03 | +0.39 | −0.36 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jordan Spence D | 20:44 | −0.08 | +0.22 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Stephen Halliday C | 11:43 | −0.20 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 13:13 | −0.28 | −0.03 | −0.22 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Cozens C | 17:47 | −0.41 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Nikolas Matinpalo D | 17:12 | −0.42 | −0.44 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drake Batherson R | 16:07 | −0.53 | −0.21 | −0.08 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark G | 60:00 | +4.69 |
One game is a tiny sample: a single goal against on a player’s shift or a lucky finish moves his net goals a lot, so don’t trade anyone over a rough night. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they’re built.