BOS beat UTA 6–1. BOS lost the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 4.7 and won anyway. The shot quality didn’t support it; the scoreboard doesn’t ask. The biggest swing: Casey Mittelstadt scored at 10:06 of the first, taking BOS’s win probability from 53% to 70%. In net, Jeremy Swayman saved 2.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
How it felt from the stands, priced second by second by the site’s win-probability model: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Who was actually getting the chances: a running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Not the arena’s picks, the model’s. Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | UTA–BOS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 10:06 |  BOS | Casey Mittelstadt from James Hagens, Elias Lindholm | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 14:22 | BOS | David PastrnakPP from Frederic Brunet, Morgan Geekie | 0–2 | 71% → 84% |
| P1 15:51 | BOS | Mason Lohrei from Matthew Poitras, Mark Kastelic | 0–3 | 85% → 92% |
| P2 4:40 | BOS | David PastrnakPP from Morgan Geekie, Hampus Lindholm | 0–4 | 95% → 99% |
| P2 7:57 | BOS | Morgan GeekiePP from David Pastrnak, Pavel Zacha | 0–5 | 99% → 99% |
| P2 14:08 | BOS | Matthew Poitras from David Pastrnak | 0–6 | 99% → 100% |
| P3 9:48 | UTA | Jack McBain from Dmitri Simashev, Barrett Hayton | 1–6 | 0% → 0% |
Every player
Show both lineups
UTA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack McBain C | 13:50 | 1 | +0.43 | +0.09 | +0.23 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Dmitri Simashev D | 14:36 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.02 | −0.12 | +0.11 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Anders Lee C | 15:19 | +0.14 | +0.06 | −0.11 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.38 | +0.02 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 18:48 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Schmaltz C | 19:52 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 23:16 | −0.07 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 17:31 | −0.08 | +0.07 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Peeke D | 12:56 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Guenther R | 18:32 | −0.17 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barrett Hayton C | 14:41 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.09 | −0.25 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| John Marino D | 19:33 | −0.20 | +0.09 | −0.05 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Stenlund C | 12:27 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Logan Cooley C | 20:30 | −0.22 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 14:42 | −0.28 | +0.04 | −0.03 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Vincent Trocheck C | 17:02 | −0.31 | +0.14 | −0.30 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Daniil But L | 10:01 | −0.34 | +0.08 | −0.30 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Carcone L | 13:10 | −0.65 | +0.08 | −0.41 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Clayton Keller R | 19:41 | −0.66 | −0.05 | −0.34 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 43:49 | −0.08 |
| Sebastian Cossa G | 15:51 | −1.81 |
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Pastrnak R | 16:25 | 2 | 2 | +1.23 | −0.00 | +0.83 | +0.41 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Morgan Geekie C | 12:45 | 1 | 2 | +0.63 | −0.01 | +0.39 | +0.26 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Matthew Poitras C | 9:51 | 1 | 1 | +0.48 | −0.03 | +0.35 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Mason Lohrei D | 15:43 | 1 | +0.43 | −0.13 | +0.43 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 11:19 | 1 | +0.41 | −0.01 | +0.46 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Frederic Brunet D | 18:42 | 1 | +0.34 | +0.02 | −0.12 | +0.24 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Hampus Lindholm D | 19:09 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Elias Lindholm C | 18:15 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| James Hagens C | 11:37 | 1 | +0.16 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Connor Clifton D | 21:37 | −0.04 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 22:09 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marat Khusnutdinov C | 15:23 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.08 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Pavel Zacha C | 16:25 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.07 | +0.12 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Tanner Jeannot L | 13:58 | −0.21 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Kastelic C | 14:05 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.08 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| JJ Peterka R | 12:28 | −0.32 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Fraser Minten C | 15:22 | −0.47 | −0.08 | −0.30 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Will Borgen D | 20:47 | −0.69 | −0.05 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.57 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Swayman G | 60:00 | +2.22 |
One game is a tiny sample: a single goal against on a player’s shift or a lucky finish moves his net goals a lot, so don’t trade anyone over a rough night. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they’re built.