WSH took this one from PIT, 5–3. No robbery here: WSH also won the expected-goals battle 3.6 to 3.3, and the better chances went the right way. The goal that mattered most: Tom Wilson scored at 11:51 of the first and moved WSH’s win probability from 53% to 70%. A tough night in net for Arturs Silovs: he allowed 1.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
How it felt from the stands, priced second by second by the site’s win-probability model: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Who was actually getting the chances: a running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Not the arena’s picks, the model’s. Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–WSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:23 |  WSH | Anthony Beauvillier from Dylan Strome | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 1:19 | PIT | Bryan Rust from Ben Kindel, Samuel Girard | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P1 11:51 | WSH | Tom Wilson from Pierre-Luc Dubois | 1–2 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 4:42 | WSH | Pierre-Luc Dubois from Tom Wilson | 1–3 | 72% → 87% |
| P2 13:14 | WSH | Alex Tuch from Tom Wilson | 1–4 | 89% → 97% |
| P2 14:05 | PIT | Tommy Novak unassisted | 2–4 | 3% → 10% |
| P2 18:01 | PIT | Nicholas Robertson from Kaedan Korczak, Blake Lizotte | 3–4 | 9% → 24% |
| P3 3:55 | WSH | Ryan LeonardPP from Jordan Kyrou, Cole Hutson | 3–5 | 80% → 93% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaedan Korczak D | 17:23 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.12 | −0.01 | +0.25 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nicholas Robertson L | 8:32 | 1 | +0.36 | −0.02 | +0.41 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Samuel Girard D | 19:00 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.11 | −0.04 | +0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evgeni Malkin C | 17:22 | +0.18 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Tommy Novak C | 15:17 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.03 | +0.12 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Bryan Rust R | 19:09 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.14 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Declan Carlile D | 18:04 | −0.03 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Dewar C | 11:11 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Kindel C | 19:36 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.06 | −0.22 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Egor Chinakhov R | 15:29 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 24:44 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.11 | +0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sidney Crosby C | 19:07 | −0.21 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Kris Letang D | 17:16 | −0.21 | −0.15 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ville Koivunen R | 14:08 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Hendrix Lapierre C | 13:02 | −0.31 | −0.11 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rickard Rakell R | 19:22 | −0.37 | −0.10 | −0.17 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Lizotte C | 10:53 | 1 | −0.40 | −0.05 | −0.13 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.09 | |
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 16:24 | −0.40 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Arturs Silovs G | 56:04 | −1.35 |
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Wilson R | 19:49 | 1 | 2 | +0.82 | +0.06 | +0.35 | +0.42 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 10:46 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.04 | +0.42 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 17:41 | 1 | 1 | +0.47 | +0.19 | +0.23 | +0.22 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.02 |
| Dylan Strome C | 13:31 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.05 | −0.13 | +0.23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Martin Fehérváry D | 23:56 | +0.11 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Ovechkin L | 14:05 | +0.10 | −0.03 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Timothy Liljegren D | 17:03 | +0.09 | +0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vincent Desharnais D | 21:03 | +0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan McIlrath D | 9:01 | +0.08 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Hutson D | 16:29 | 1 | +0.05 | −0.03 | −0.17 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Leonard R | 13:53 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.08 | +0.28 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Tuch R | 18:35 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.11 | −0.00 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Kyrou R | 11:58 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Justin Sourdif C | 15:08 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Ilya Protas L | 11:44 | −0.07 | +0.05 | −0.08 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Aliaksei Protas L | 16:04 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Boone Jenner C | 17:52 | −0.19 | −0.07 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jakob Chychrun D | 25:22 | −0.29 | +0.15 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.37 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson G | 60:00 | +0.84 |
One game is a tiny sample: a single goal against on a player’s shift or a lucky finish moves his net goals a lot, so don’t trade anyone over a rough night. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they’re built.