CHI beat STL 4–2. CHI lost the expected-goals battle 1.7 to 3.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Anton Frondell scored at 7:40 of the second, moving CHI’s win probability from 53% to 73%. Spencer Knight saved 3.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–CHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 15:38 |  STL | Mason McTavish from Connor McMichael | 1–0 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 5:40 |  CHI | Sam RinzelPP from Frank Nazar, Nick Lardis | 1–1 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 7:40 | CHI | Anton Frondell from Artyom Levshunov, Teuvo Teravainen | 1–2 | 53% → 73% |
| P3 18:51 | CHI | Cole SmithEN unassisted | 1–3 | 95% → 100% |
| P3 19:22 | STL | Connor McMichaelPP from Philip Broberg, Pavel Buchnevich | 2–3 | 0% → 4% |
| P3 19:56 | CHI | Frank NazarEN from Tyler Bertuzzi, Anton Frondell | 2–4 | 97% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McMichael L | 17:53 | 1 | 1 | +0.60 | +0.20 | +0.22 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Mason McTavish C | 17:20 | 1 | +0.41 | +0.08 | +0.38 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Brandon Carlo D | 17:58 | +0.23 | +0.27 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Philip Broberg D | 22:26 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.06 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Pius Suter C | 13:18 | +0.08 | +0.12 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 23:04 | +0.07 | +0.29 | −0.07 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dalibor Dvorsky R | 10:51 | −0.00 | +0.27 | −0.07 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Dillon Dube C | 10:12 | −0.01 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jimmy Snuggerud R | 18:58 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Parayko D | 20:10 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Theo Lindstein D | 14:49 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Jiricek D | 18:12 | −0.05 | +0.04 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Neighbours L | 15:15 | −0.06 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Holloway L | 16:03 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.09 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Thomas C | 20:30 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 17:43 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.13 | −0.22 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ross Johnston L | 7:15 | −0.18 | +0.14 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonatan Berggren R | 15:49 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joel Hofer G | 58:14 | −0.87 |
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Rinzel D | 17:45 | 1 | +0.27 | −0.04 | +0.34 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anton Frondell C | 18:37 | 1 | 1 | +0.24 | −0.13 | +0.38 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Nick Lardis L | 9:39 | 1 | +0.18 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 17:49 | 1 | +0.16 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 9:31 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Artyom Levshunov D | 18:00 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.20 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ian Cole D | 19:38 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Vlasic D | 21:48 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Moore C | 12:16 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ryan Donato C | 9:27 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Bowen Byram D | 21:22 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 12:42 | −0.16 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Greene C | 14:00 | −0.19 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Cole Smith L | 14:38 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Wyatt Kaiser D | 17:57 | −0.31 | −0.25 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frank Nazar C | 19:35 | 1 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.17 | −0.31 | +0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Roman Kantserov R | 20:38 | −0.42 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Patrick Kane R | 20:55 | −0.43 | −0.13 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Knight G | 60:00 | +3.16 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.