DET beat OTT 5–3. DET also won the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 2.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Dylan Larkin scored at 13:14 of the first, moving DET’s win probability from 53% to 70%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–DET | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:44 |  OTT | Tim Stützle from Drake Batherson, Ridly Greig | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 3:16 |  DET | Alex DeBrincat from Nate Danielson, Carter Mazur | 1–1 | 38% → 53% |
| P1 13:14 | DET | Dylan Larkin from Viktor Arvidsson, Alex DeBrincat | 1–2 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 2:01 | DET | Viktor ArvidssonPP from Dylan Larkin, Lucas Raymond | 1–3 | 73% → 86% |
| P2 4:30 | DET | Justin Faulk from William Wallinder, Lucas Raymond | 1–4 | 87% → 95% |
| P2 6:08 | OTT | Drake BathersonPP from William Eklund, Carter Yakemchuk | 2–4 | 5% → 13% |
| P3 10:30 | OTT | William Eklund from Fabian Zetterlund, Tim Stützle | 3–4 | 4% → 17% |
| P3 19:10 | DET | Alex DeBrincatEN from Lucas Raymond, Justin Faulk | 3–5 | 97% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Eklund L | 20:09 | 1 | 1 | +0.46 | +0.15 | +0.21 | +0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Tim Stützle C | 21:37 | 1 | 1 | +0.38 | +0.05 | +0.25 | +0.09 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Dylan Cozens C | 21:29 | +0.28 | +0.09 | −0.09 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.37 | +0.03 | ||
| Drake Batherson R | 17:07 | 1 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.11 | +0.32 | +0.13 | +0.00 | −0.37 | −0.02 |
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 15:00 | 1 | +0.10 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cameron Crotty D | 10:51 | +0.09 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Chabot D | 26:12 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Claude Giroux R | 15:28 | +0.05 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Tyler Kleven D | 18:58 | −0.03 | −0.18 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Carter Yakemchuk D | 17:07 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Warren Foegele L | 8:51 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Amadio R | 15:39 | −0.22 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolas Matinpalo D | 16:35 | −0.24 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Cousins C | 6:02 | −0.30 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Shane Pinto C | 16:37 | −0.31 | −0.21 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Ridly Greig C | 13:10 | 1 | −0.40 | −0.14 | −0.14 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Jordan Spence D | 22:29 | −0.40 | −0.18 | −0.22 | +0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Stephen Halliday C | 10:37 | −0.46 | −0.10 | −0.30 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Ersson G | 57:56 | −0.84 |
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex DeBrincat R | 18:45 | 2 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.15 | +0.34 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Justin Faulk D | 18:21 | 1 | 1 | +0.52 | +0.19 | +0.35 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Viktor Arvidsson L | 17:20 | 1 | 1 | +0.48 | +0.13 | +0.23 | +0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Michael Rasmussen C | 20:05 | +0.36 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.37 | −0.01 | ||
| William Wallinder D | 9:07 | 1 | +0.33 | +0.13 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Larkin C | 20:41 | 1 | 1 | +0.26 | −0.14 | +0.18 | +0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| Nate Danielson C | 8:02 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.06 | −0.08 | +0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Lucas Raymond L | 19:47 | 3 | +0.14 | +0.10 | −0.26 | +0.12 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Albert Johansson D | 17:00 | +0.13 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Carter Mazur L | 7:25 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.08 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ben Chiarot D | 18:14 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Brandsegg-Nygård R | 12:37 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anton Johansson D | 17:13 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Axel Sandin-Pellikka D | 11:27 | −0.22 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Moritz Seider D | 24:01 | −0.24 | +0.09 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Keegan Kolesar R | 15:07 | −0.26 | +0.04 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Copp C | 18:24 | −0.34 | +0.09 | −0.21 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Emmitt Finnie C | 18:17 | −0.35 | −0.04 | −0.11 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.08 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| John Gibson G | 59:54 | +0.84 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.