TOR beat NSH 5–4 in overtime. TOR also won the expected-goals battle 4.4 to 3.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Auston Matthews scored at 4:46 of overtime, moving TOR’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NSH–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:13 |  NSH | Steven StamkosPP from Matthew Wood, Roman Josi | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 9:08 | NSH | Nils Hoglander from Adam Wilsby, Filip Forsberg | 2–0 | 63% → 77% |
| P2 3:03 | NSH | Nils Hoglander from Filip Forsberg, Mavrik Bourque | 3–0 | 81% → 93% |
| P2 4:56 |  TOR | John Tavares from Gavin McKenna, Anthony Stolarz | 3–1 | 6% → 18% |
| P2 6:58 | TOR | William NylanderPP from Auston Matthews, Kirill Marchenko | 3–2 | 18% → 33% |
| P2 13:30 | NSH | Steven Stamkos from Ryan O'Reilly, Brady Skjei | 4–2 | 70% → 86% |
| P2 14:31 | TOR | Gavin McKenna from Auston Matthews, Jack Roslovic | 4–3 | 14% → 30% |
| P3 8:54 | TOR | Jack Roslovic from Auston Matthews, William Nylander | 4–4 | 21% → 52% |
| OT 4:46 | TOR | Auston Matthews from William Nylander | 4–5 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Stamkos C | 19:43 | 2 | +0.63 | −0.09 | +0.74 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Nils Hoglander L | 10:38 | 2 | +0.60 | −0.10 | +0.73 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Forsberg L | 21:00 | 2 | +0.11 | −0.09 | −0.15 | +0.36 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Ahcan D | 7:58 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Wilsby D | 15:05 | 1 | −0.00 | −0.13 | −0.06 | +0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| William Trudeau D | 10:05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 24:13 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.23 | −0.08 | +0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Perbix D | 20:49 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Hague D | 19:12 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mavrik Bourque C | 19:48 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.24 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.06 | |
| Adam Edstrom C | 13:38 | −0.20 | +0.03 | −0.19 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Drury C | 15:01 | −0.23 | +0.08 | −0.01 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.04 | ||
| Matthew Wood R | 16:54 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.37 | −0.05 | +0.21 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Brady Skjei D | 22:53 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.28 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Roman Josi D | 27:06 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.36 | −0.04 | +0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 18:50 | −0.38 | −0.22 | −0.07 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ross Colton C | 12:52 | −0.39 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 13:17 | −0.43 | −0.17 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 64:35 | −0.67 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auston Matthews C | 25:09 | 1 | 3 | +1.36 | +0.66 | +0.26 | +0.46 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| William Nylander R | 22:48 | 1 | 2 | +1.00 | +0.42 | +0.35 | +0.24 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Gavin McKenna L | 14:45 | 1 | 1 | +0.64 | +0.15 | +0.31 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jack Roslovic C | 17:46 | 1 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.17 | +0.33 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| John Tavares C | 18:46 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.15 | +0.10 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.15 | |
| Darren Raddysh D | 25:51 | +0.22 | +0.36 | −0.05 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Teddy Blueger C | 9:53 | +0.17 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Troy Stecher D | 17:20 | +0.14 | +0.17 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 19:59 | +0.11 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Duhaime R | 11:22 | +0.06 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 17:27 | +0.05 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirill Marchenko R | 21:35 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.29 | −0.24 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Easton Cowan R | 16:01 | −0.01 | +0.30 | −0.17 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bo Groulx C | 7:31 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 20:39 | −0.06 | +0.42 | −0.17 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 13:39 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Nick Paul L | 13:27 | −0.23 | +0.02 | −0.17 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Chris Tanev D | 18:38 | −0.33 | −0.39 | −0.00 | +0.04 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Stolarz G | 64:46 | −0.88 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.