TBL beat PHI 4–1. TBL also won the expected-goals battle 4.0 to 1.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Brayden Point scored at 16:05 of the first, moving TBL’s win probability from 53% to 71%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PHI–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 16:05 |  TBL | Brayden Point from John Carlson, Nikita Kucherov | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 0:17 | TBL | Pontus Holmberg from Ilya Mikheyev, Zemgus Girgensons | 0–2 | 72% → 86% |
| P2 7:22 |  PHI | Tyson Foerster from Nick Seeler, Sean Couturier | 1–2 | 12% → 27% |
| P3 17:00 | TBL | Ilya Mikheyev from Pontus Holmberg | 1–3 | 92% → 99% |
| P3 19:53 | TBL | Brandon HagelEN from Nikita Kucherov | 1–4 | 100% → 99% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Porter Martone R | 14:36 | +0.23 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.34 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Foerster R | 18:55 | 1 | +0.17 | −0.15 | +0.33 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Seeler D | 19:36 | 1 | +0.05 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Couturier C | 16:35 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.15 | −0.03 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| David Jiricek D | 17:42 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.08 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Denver Barkey C | 13:06 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Carl Grundstrom R | 10:12 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noel Acciari C | 13:39 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam York D | 23:31 | −0.14 | −0.22 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Cates L | 11:12 | −0.16 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Simon Benoit D | 11:52 | −0.17 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Drysdale D | 18:10 | −0.19 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Konecny R | 19:05 | −0.23 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Dvorak C | 14:24 | −0.23 | −0.05 | −0.14 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Travis Sanheim D | 25:04 | −0.25 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Tippett R | 13:58 | −0.30 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Zegras C | 18:19 | −0.32 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.17 | −0.02 | ||
| Matvei Michkov R | 16:40 | −0.41 | −0.14 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dan Vladar G | 57:24 | +0.98 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 16:43 | 1 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.10 | +0.42 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Pontus Holmberg R | 13:05 | 1 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.09 | +0.26 | +0.21 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Nikita Kucherov R | 21:59 | 2 | +0.39 | +0.25 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden Point C | 18:09 | 1 | +0.37 | +0.12 | +0.32 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Ryan McDonagh D | 15:21 | +0.22 | +0.19 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Cernak D | 22:15 | +0.22 | +0.24 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 14:23 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.15 | −0.00 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| John Carlson D | 17:51 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.06 | −0.05 | +0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| J.J. Moser D | 17:03 | +0.12 | +0.04 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Gage Goncalves C | 16:12 | +0.02 | +0.19 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Hedman D | 16:01 | −0.09 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Crozier D | 15:24 | −0.10 | +0.11 | −0.08 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeffrey Viel L | 8:49 | −0.13 | +0.03 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Geekie C | 11:47 | −0.14 | +0.07 | −0.07 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Charle-Edouard D'Astous D | 10:56 | −0.22 | +0.05 | −0.03 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Cirelli C | 16:31 | −0.35 | +0.06 | −0.06 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Hagel L | 20:11 | 1 | −0.41 | +0.12 | −0.38 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Guentzel C | 21:20 | −0.61 | +0.04 | −0.51 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 60:00 | +0.84 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.