STL beat SJS 3–2 in overtime. STL lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 2.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Robert Thomas scored at 0:54 of overtime, moving STL’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Alex Nedeljkovic allowed 2.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:55 |  STL | Jimmy Snuggerud from Cam Fowler, Dylan Holloway | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 14:31 |  SJS | Macklin Celebrini from Dmitry Orlov, Tyler Toffoli | 1–1 | 31% → 53% |
| P2 17:46 | STL | Robert Thomas from Jimmy Snuggerud, Dylan Holloway | 2–1 | 47% → 71% |
| P3 13:26 | SJS | Kiefer Sherwood from Philipp Kurashev, Collin Graf | 2–2 | 16% → 51% |
| OT 0:54 | STL | Robert Thomas from Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway | 3–2 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Thomas C | 19:06 | 2 | +0.75 | +0.30 | +0.41 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Dylan Holloway L | 15:48 | 3 | +0.71 | +0.34 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jimmy Snuggerud R | 17:08 | 1 | 1 | +0.54 | +0.05 | +0.36 | +0.14 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Philip Broberg D | 32:51 | 1 | +0.41 | +0.15 | −0.00 | +0.23 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Tucker D | 18:59 | +0.38 | +0.23 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 10:39 | +0.02 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 26:53 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 12:41 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Neighbours L | 11:02 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Pius Suter C | 16:14 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jack Finley C | 11:10 | −0.09 | +0.05 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Kyrou R | 10:34 | −0.13 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Walker L | 10:03 | −0.20 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 17:17 | −0.24 | −0.08 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Matthew Kessel D | 14:21 | −0.28 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dalibor Dvorsky R | 11:21 | −0.32 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Logan Mailloux D | 25:03 | −0.50 | −0.44 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonatan Berggren R | 17:32 | −0.52 | −0.31 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 60:54 | −0.04 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 15:34 | 1 | +0.47 | +0.19 | +0.39 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vincent Desharnais D | 17:08 | +0.41 | +0.24 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Misa C | 15:18 | +0.25 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.07 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 19:12 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.13 | −0.05 | +0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Philipp Kurashev C | 15:58 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.19 | −0.17 | +0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Tyler Toffoli C | 14:02 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Macklin Celebrini C | 21:36 | 1 | +0.09 | −0.23 | +0.35 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Collin Graf R | 14:09 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.12 | −0.07 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Barclay Goodrow C | 9:04 | −0.04 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Eklund L | 17:32 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Adam Gaudette R | 11:30 | −0.10 | +0.03 | −0.10 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Will Smith C | 16:31 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shakir Mukhamadullin D | 22:47 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Wennberg C | 20:22 | −0.14 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 20:38 | −0.17 | +0.06 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Dickinson D | 17:53 | −0.30 | −0.22 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Klingberg D | 19:46 | −0.31 | −0.18 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zack Ostapchuk C | 9:42 | −0.31 | +0.05 | −0.11 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Nedeljkovic G | 60:54 | −2.67 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.