EDM beat SJS 4–3 in overtime. EDM also won the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 1.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Zach Hyman scored at 1:06 of overtime, moving EDM’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Yaroslav Askarov allowed 3.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:26 |  SJS | Collin Graf from Will Smith, Macklin Celebrini | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 1:35 | SJS | Adam Gaudette from William Eklund | 2–0 | 62% → 74% |
| P1 11:40 | SJS | Michael Misa from Timothy Liljegren, Sam Dickinson | 3–0 | 77% → 91% |
| P3 1:34 | EDM | Leon Draisaitl from Evan Bouchard, Kasperi Kapanen | 3–1 | 2% → 10% |
| P3 16:55 | EDM | Connor McDavidPP from Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 3–2 | 1% → 10% |
| P3 19:01 | EDM | Evan BouchardPP from Leon Draisaitl, Mattias Ekholm | 3–3 | 6% → 50% |
| OT 1:06 | EDM | Zach Hyman from Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Gaudette R | 12:20 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.01 | +0.41 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Misa C | 12:51 | 1 | +0.39 | +0.02 | +0.38 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| William Eklund L | 16:14 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.04 | −0.13 | +0.27 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Collin Graf R | 20:22 | 1 | +0.15 | −0.13 | +0.28 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zack Ostapchuk C | 8:50 | +0.09 | −0.03 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Sam Dickinson D | 16:41 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vincent Desharnais D | 17:02 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Macklin Celebrini C | 22:49 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.13 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.04 | |
| Ryan Reaves R | 9:50 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Timothy Liljegren D | 24:56 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.30 | −0.02 | +0.26 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Barclay Goodrow C | 11:37 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Smith C | 19:45 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.11 | +0.13 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Toffoli C | 12:52 | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Klingberg D | 16:23 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 22:12 | −0.15 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavol Regenda L | 13:52 | −0.24 | −0.08 | −0.10 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 23:47 | −0.37 | −0.22 | −0.00 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Wennberg C | 21:10 | −0.49 | −0.31 | +0.00 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.09 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Yaroslav Askarov G | 61:06 | −3.83 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid C | 26:10 | 1 | 1 | +1.29 | +0.19 | +0.80 | +0.28 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Evan Bouchard D | 25:06 | 1 | 2 | +0.94 | +0.23 | +0.69 | +0.23 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Leon Draisaitl C | 25:20 | 1 | 2 | +0.52 | +0.22 | +0.30 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.06 |
| Zach Hyman L | 17:53 | 1 | +0.38 | +0.12 | +0.29 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Trent Frederic C | 8:26 | +0.17 | +0.04 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.04 | ||
| Josh Samanski C | 10:56 | +0.07 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Spencer Stastney D | 14:28 | +0.06 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ty Emberson D | 15:35 | +0.03 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 18:37 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.06 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mattias Janmark C | 9:42 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vasily Podkolzin R | 16:09 | −0.07 | +0.04 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 22:26 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 17:07 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.05 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Jake Walman D | 19:45 | −0.10 | +0.03 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Roslovic C | 14:15 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Savoie C | 9:17 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 21:52 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Curtis Lazar C | 10:05 | −0.17 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Ingram G | 71:28 | −1.29 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.