SJS took this one from LAK, 4–3 in overtime. No robbery here: SJS also won the expected-goals battle 4.2 to 3.0, and the better chances went the right way. The goal that mattered most: William Eklund scored at 3:08 of overtime and moved SJS’s win probability from 48% to 100%. A tough night in net for Darcy Kuemper: he allowed 2.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
How it felt from the stands, priced second by second by the site’s win-probability model: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Who was actually getting the chances: a running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Not the arena’s picks, the model’s. Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–LAK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 4:10 | SJS | Tyler ToffoliPP from Alexander Wennberg, Macklin Celebrini | 1–0 | 48% → 67% |
| P2 11:34 | LAK | Alex Turcotte from Kevin Fiala | 1–1 | 31% → 53% |
| P3 5:38 | SJS | Adam GaudettePP from Timothy Liljegren, Jeff Skinner | 2–1 | 49% → 76% |
| P3 6:40 | LAK | Kevin Fiala from Alex Turcotte, Joel Edmundson | 2–2 | 23% → 52% |
| P3 17:50 | LAK | Alex Laferriere from Joel Edmundson, Cody Ceci | 2–3 | 50% → 93% |
| P3 18:53 | SJS | Macklin CelebriniPP unassisted | 3–3 | 5% → 50% |
| OT 3:08 | SJS | William Eklund from Macklin Celebrini | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macklin Celebrini C | 26:34 | 1 | 2 | +1.42 | +0.45 | +0.45 | +0.46 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.07 |
| William Eklund L | 21:24 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.63 | +0.35 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Wennberg C | 21:26 | 1 | +0.41 | +0.42 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Dmitry Orlov D | 22:44 | +0.35 | +0.50 | −0.00 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Gaudette R | 11:39 | 1 | +0.30 | −0.00 | +0.34 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jeff Skinner L | 11:50 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.03 | −0.13 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Timothy Liljegren D | 23:59 | 1 | +0.13 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Toffoli C | 16:55 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.56 | −0.20 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Pavol Regenda L | 15:29 | +0.05 | +0.17 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Igor Chernyshov L | 14:43 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.10 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Dickinson D | 17:28 | −0.07 | +0.04 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Collin Graf R | 15:27 | −0.13 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Leddy D | 17:38 | −0.17 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zack Ostapchuk C | 12:09 | −0.19 | −0.36 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 21:12 | −0.28 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Reaves R | 10:19 | −0.35 | −0.33 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 12:36 | −0.43 | −0.37 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vincent Iorio D | 14:26 | −0.46 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Yaroslav Askarov G | 71:58 | −0.41 |
LAK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Fiala L | 22:26 | 1 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.41 | +0.13 | +0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Alex Turcotte C | 17:22 | 1 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.19 | +0.25 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| Brandt Clarke D | 22:53 | +0.34 | +0.50 | −0.12 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Edmundson D | 20:13 | 2 | +0.28 | −0.03 | −0.16 | +0.27 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Andrei Kuzmenko L | 21:46 | +0.24 | +0.36 | −0.02 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Moverare D | 10:59 | +0.04 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andre Lee L | 10:09 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Ward R | 10:20 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.09 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Laferriere R | 21:32 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.39 | +0.36 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Cody Ceci D | 15:00 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.26 | −0.00 | +0.09 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Samuel Helenius C | 9:39 | −0.17 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Adrian Kempe R | 21:00 | −0.22 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mikey Anderson D | 22:11 | −0.23 | −0.28 | −0.07 | −0.09 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Malott L | 15:30 | −0.30 | +0.00 | −0.21 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Warren Foegele L | 18:29 | −0.35 | −0.19 | −0.11 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Dumoulin D | 10:07 | −0.36 | −0.34 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew Doughty D | 23:33 | −0.55 | +0.06 | −0.02 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Quinton Byfield R | 21:37 | −0.68 | −0.25 | −0.27 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Darcy Kuemper G | 73:04 | −2.14 |
One game is a tiny sample: a single goal against on a player’s shift or a lucky finish moves his net goals a lot, so don’t trade anyone over a rough night. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they’re built.