TBL beat ANA 4–3 in overtime. TBL also won the expected-goals battle 3.2 to 2.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Darren Raddysh scored at 2:47 of overtime, moving TBL’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Lukas Dostal allowed 1.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TBL–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 13:30 |  TBL | J.J. Moser from Darren Raddysh, Brandon Hagel | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 15:17 |  ANA | Jansen Harkins from Ross Johnston | 1–1 | 30% → 53% |
| P2 19:11 | TBL | Brayden Point from Max Crozier, Nikita Kucherov | 2–1 | 48% → 72% |
| P3 3:57 | ANA | Beckett Sennecke unassisted | 2–2 | 25% → 52% |
| P3 8:00 | TBL | Nikita KucherovPP from Brandon Hagel, Charle-Edouard D'Astous | 3–2 | 49% → 78% |
| P3 13:02 | ANA | Mason McTavishPP from Pavel Mintyukov | 3–3 | 17% → 51% |
| OT 2:47 | TBL | Darren Raddysh from Brandon Hagel, Andrei Vasilevskiy | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Raddysh D | 26:08 | 1 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.51 | +0.28 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Brandon Hagel L | 19:14 | 3 | +0.73 | +0.49 | −0.19 | +0.43 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden Point C | 17:45 | 1 | +0.47 | −0.03 | +0.34 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| J.J. Moser D | 24:57 | 1 | +0.39 | +0.02 | +0.41 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikita Kucherov R | 18:29 | 1 | 1 | +0.25 | −0.13 | +0.31 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Erik Cernak D | 18:28 | +0.08 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Crozier D | 14:27 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.21 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Gage Goncalves C | 12:46 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Declan Carlile D | 14:55 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 16:10 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pontus Holmberg R | 14:28 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Guentzel C | 20:06 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 11:35 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominic James C | 8:19 | −0.11 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Charle-Edouard D'Astous D | 18:48 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.12 | −0.07 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Paul L | 11:30 | −0.18 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Anthony Cirelli C | 18:00 | −0.18 | +0.38 | −0.53 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 17:01 | −0.33 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 62:47 | −0.56 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jansen Harkins C | 7:22 | 1 | +0.35 | −0.00 | +0.37 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 22:31 | 1 | +0.31 | +0.03 | −0.04 | +0.34 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ross Johnston L | 8:01 | 1 | +0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mason McTavish C | 18:27 | 1 | +0.21 | −0.15 | +0.25 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Mikael Granlund C | 18:28 | +0.17 | +0.03 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.05 | ||
| Nikita Nesterenko C | 13:24 | +0.07 | +0.14 | −0.02 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew Helleson D | 15:29 | +0.07 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Poehling C | 13:45 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Ian Moore D | 16:52 | +0.02 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Beckett Sennecke R | 18:03 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.32 | +0.31 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Troy Terry R | 16:26 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Cutter Gauthier L | 17:57 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.14 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Leo Carlsson C | 18:26 | −0.14 | +0.08 | −0.17 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Olen Zellweger D | 13:39 | −0.14 | +0.13 | −0.00 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Kreider L | 15:46 | −0.17 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 25:42 | −0.22 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 16:48 | −0.23 | +0.07 | −0.26 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jackson LaCombe D | 25:27 | −0.42 | −0.24 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal G | 62:47 | −1.41 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.