OTT beat UTA 3–1. Expected goals were close to even (UTA 2.3, OTT 2.5), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Claude Giroux scored at 7:33 of the third, moving OTT’s win probability from 52% to 81%. Leevi Meriläinen saved 1.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | UTA–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 12:16 |  OTT | Ridly GreigSH from Shane Pinto, Artem Zub | 0–1 | 52% → 74% |
| P2 13:52 | UTA | Clayton Keller from Olli Maatta, John Marino | 1–1 | 26% → 47% |
| P3 7:33 | OTT | Claude Giroux from Tim Stützle, Jake Sanderson | 1–2 | 52% → 81% |
| P3 13:22 | OTT | Brady Tkachuk from Tim Stützle, Claude Giroux | 1–3 | 86% → 98% |
Every player
Show both lineups
UTA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olli Maatta D | 18:54 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Clayton Keller R | 19:52 | 1 | +0.13 | −0.16 | +0.36 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lawson Crouse L | 16:03 | +0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick DeSimone D | 13:30 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Stenlund C | 15:22 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 23:16 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Doan R | 12:43 | −0.12 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 12:34 | −0.14 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jack McBain C | 14:59 | −0.15 | −0.06 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Liam O'Brien C | 8:51 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.09 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Kesselring D | 20:39 | −0.16 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Marino D | 22:05 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.04 | −0.06 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Bjugstad C | 15:33 | −0.24 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Juuso Välimäki D | 15:47 | −0.27 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Matias Maccelli L | 12:35 | −0.27 | −0.10 | −0.13 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barrett Hayton C | 15:14 | −0.34 | +0.03 | −0.41 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.09 | ||
| Nick Schmaltz C | 18:16 | −0.57 | −0.20 | −0.41 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Logan Cooley C | 20:11 | −0.78 | −0.17 | −0.42 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.20 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 57:36 | −0.66 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ridly Greig C | 19:28 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.10 | +0.80 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Claude Giroux R | 19:48 | 1 | 1 | +0.48 | +0.06 | +0.40 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Brady Tkachuk L | 16:53 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.04 | +0.18 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.20 | −0.05 | |
| Tim Stützle C | 18:37 | 2 | +0.17 | −0.01 | −0.15 | +0.35 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Artem Zub D | 25:14 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.21 | −0.05 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikolas Matinpalo D | 11:50 | +0.06 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Norris C | 16:41 | +0.03 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Travis Hamonic D | 19:13 | +0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Sanderson D | 24:04 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.22 | −0.15 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zack Ostapchuk C | 8:45 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Kleven D | 13:53 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Highmore C | 10:44 | −0.01 | +0.12 | −0.10 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drake Batherson R | 15:35 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.13 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Adam Gaudette R | 8:58 | −0.06 | +0.04 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| David Perron L | 11:28 | −0.10 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shane Pinto C | 16:48 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.16 | −0.17 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Thomas Chabot D | 22:10 | −0.26 | +0.07 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Amadio R | 13:51 | −0.26 | +0.07 | −0.07 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Leevi Meriläinen G | 60:00 | +1.26 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.