SJS beat NJD 3–2. SJS lost the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 3.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Cody Ceci scored at 19:35 of the third, moving SJS’s win probability from 51% to 97%. Jacob Markstrom allowed 2.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NJD–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 17:40 | SJS | Nikolai Kovalenko from William Eklund, Luke Kunin | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 4:19 | NJD | Nico HischierPP from Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P3 1:53 | SJS | Macklin Celebrini from Will Smith, Collin Graf | 1–2 | 52% → 78% |
| P3 5:07 | NJD | Paul Cotter from Luke Hughes | 2–2 | 20% → 48% |
| P3 19:35 | SJS | Cody Ceci from Alexander Wennberg | 2–3 | 51% → 97% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Cotter C | 13:34 | 1 | +0.45 | +0.10 | +0.42 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Hughes D | 19:55 | 1 | +0.12 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.21 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dawson Mercer C | 14:59 | +0.07 | +0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jesper Bratt L | 17:13 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.10 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Haula L | 13:06 | +0.03 | +0.02 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Brett Pesce D | 21:09 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Hughes C | 19:31 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.13 | −0.27 | +0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nico Hischier C | 19:47 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.08 | +0.23 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.02 | |
| Dougie Hamilton D | 20:36 | −0.02 | +0.10 | −0.05 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Johnathan Kovacevic D | 18:32 | −0.06 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ondrej Palat L | 12:16 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Bastian R | 11:31 | −0.10 | +0.08 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Curtis Lazar C | 11:11 | −0.11 | +0.12 | −0.16 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Tomas Tatar L | 9:17 | −0.11 | +0.08 | −0.12 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 20:13 | −0.11 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Timo Meier R | 15:31 | −0.24 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Stefan Noesen R | 17:36 | −0.41 | −0.05 | −0.31 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 16:43 | −0.44 | +0.11 | −0.08 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.40 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 59:20 | −2.06 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikolai Kovalenko R | 10:14 | 1 | +0.30 | −0.07 | +0.40 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cody Ceci D | 21:34 | 1 | +0.29 | −0.21 | +0.46 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Macklin Celebrini C | 17:40 | 1 | +0.14 | −0.13 | +0.33 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Mikael Granlund C | 20:33 | +0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.01 | ||
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 12:41 | +0.08 | +0.11 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Smith C | 16:44 | 1 | +0.05 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Collin Graf R | 13:12 | 1 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Wennberg C | 19:05 | 1 | +0.00 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Barclay Goodrow C | 12:25 | −0.02 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.20 | −0.03 | ||
| Timothy Liljegren D | 18:25 | −0.03 | +0.14 | −0.04 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jan Rutta D | 14:21 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 20:38 | −0.06 | +0.13 | −0.12 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Eklund L | 18:08 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.13 | −0.33 | +0.14 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Kunin C | 13:54 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.18 | −0.03 | +0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Tyler Toffoli C | 18:18 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.25 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 15:27 | −0.11 | +0.19 | −0.22 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Klim Kostin C | 13:39 | −0.15 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Henry Thrun D | 19:22 | −0.20 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.07 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Yaroslav Askarov G | 60:00 | +0.91 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.