PIT took this one from NSH, 5–4 in overtime. Call it a steal: PIT lost the expected-goals battle 1.7 to 3.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality didn’t support. The goal that mattered most: Bryan Rust scored at 1:07 of overtime and moved PIT’s win probability from 48% to 100%. A tough night in net for Juuse Saros: he allowed 5.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
How it felt from the stands, priced second by second by the site’s win-probability model: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Who was actually getting the chances: a running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Not the arena’s picks, the model’s. Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–NSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:51 |  NSH | Jonathan Marchessault from Filip Forsberg, Luke Schenn | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 16:21 |  PIT | Bryan Rust from Rickard Rakell, Sidney Crosby | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P1 17:57 | NSH | Luke EvangelistaPP from Tommy Novak, Brady Skjei | 1–2 | 54% → 71% |
| P2 3:38 | NSH | Steven StamkosPP from Filip Forsberg, Gustav Nyquist | 1–3 | 73% → 86% |
| P2 7:54 | PIT | Sidney CrosbyPP from Erik Karlsson, Bryan Rust | 2–3 | 13% → 27% |
| P2 9:08 | PIT | Rickard Rakell from Sidney Crosby, Bryan Rust | 3–3 | 26% → 47% |
| P3 7:44 | NSH | Brady Skjei from Ryan O'Reilly, Zachary L'Heureux | 3–4 | 52% → 81% |
| P3 11:36 | PIT | Erik Karlsson from Matt Grzelcyk, Sidney Crosby | 4–4 | 16% → 48% |
| OT 1:07 | PIT | Bryan Rust from Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang | 5–4 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Rust R | 20:57 | 2 | 2 | +1.08 | +0.08 | +0.82 | +0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Sidney Crosby C | 17:24 | 1 | 3 | +0.62 | −0.04 | +0.28 | +0.39 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Erik Karlsson D | 20:49 | 1 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.05 | +0.37 | +0.24 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Rickard Rakell R | 17:50 | 1 | 1 | +0.42 | +0.05 | +0.39 | +0.18 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Evgeni Malkin C | 18:47 | 1 | +0.27 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.43 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Matt Grzelcyk D | 19:42 | 1 | +0.17 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noel Acciari C | 16:51 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Philip Tomasino C | 11:15 | +0.03 | −0.07 | −0.12 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Nieto L | 15:38 | +0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kris Letang D | 23:00 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.13 | −0.11 | +0.21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cody Glass C | 15:02 | −0.04 | −0.25 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.06 | ||
| Ryan Graves D | 17:02 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Shea D | 17:06 | −0.08 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew O'Connor L | 8:07 | −0.09 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Bunting L | 16:08 | −0.14 | −0.28 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Pickering D | 20:28 | −0.18 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 5:16 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Lizotte C | 12:30 | −0.55 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.40 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tristan Jarry G | 61:07 | −1.46 |
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Stamkos C | 19:12 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.07 | +0.64 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Luke Evangelista R | 13:39 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.01 | +0.36 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Brady Skjei D | 22:51 | 1 | 1 | +0.28 | +0.07 | +0.35 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 18:38 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.10 | +0.31 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Tommy Novak C | 11:38 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.04 | −0.16 | +0.19 | −0.00 | +0.20 | −0.04 | |
| Zachary L'Heureux L | 16:21 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.16 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Schenn D | 14:22 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Blankenburg D | 20:02 | +0.12 | +0.16 | −0.10 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 18:38 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.10 | −0.35 | +0.15 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.01 | |
| Marc Del Gaizo D | 14:38 | +0.11 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Forsberg L | 17:57 | 2 | +0.10 | +0.05 | −0.04 | +0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Jankowski L | 12:17 | +0.04 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 18:10 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Smith L | 11:49 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael McCarron C | 13:44 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 13:25 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Nyquist R | 20:58 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.10 | −0.05 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Wilsby D | 19:16 | −0.15 | −0.03 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 60:57 | −5.22 |
One game is a tiny sample: a single goal against on a player’s shift or a lucky finish moves his net goals a lot, so don’t trade anyone over a rough night. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they’re built.