PIT beat CBJ 3–2. PIT also won the expected-goals battle 3.3 to 2.1. The better chances went the right way, which is how the model likes it. The biggest swing: Drew O'Connor scored at 0:35 of the third, taking PIT’s win probability from 52% to 77%.
Win probability
How it felt from the stands, priced second by second by the site’s win-probability model: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Who was actually getting the chances: a running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Not the arena’s picks, the model’s. Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CBJ–PIT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 5:20 | CBJ | Mathieu Olivier from Damon Severson, Cole Sillinger | 1–0 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 9:50 | PIT | Evgeni MalkinPP from Kris Letang, Bryan Rust | 1–1 | 32% → 53% |
| P2 13:11 | CBJ | Cole Sillinger from Alexandre Texier, Ivan Provorov | 2–1 | 47% → 69% |
| P2 16:11 | PIT | Evgeni MalkinPP from Sidney Crosby, Michael Bunting | 2–2 | 30% → 53% |
| P3 0:35 | PIT | Drew O'Connor from Sidney Crosby, Pierre-Olivier Joseph | 2–3 | 52% → 77% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Sillinger C | 19:26 | 1 | 1 | +0.27 | −0.09 | +0.40 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Mathieu Olivier R | 14:33 | 1 | +0.14 | −0.04 | +0.22 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Ivan Provorov D | 23:27 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikael Pyyhtia L | 12:34 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Angle C | 7:02 | −0.09 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Carson Meyer R | 7:35 | −0.09 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Christiansen D | 10:41 | −0.09 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Bean D | 15:55 | −0.10 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 22:23 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.21 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| James Malatesta L | 7:13 | −0.15 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 20:18 | −0.16 | −0.21 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Werenski D | 27:10 | −0.17 | −0.33 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Gaunce C | 11:22 | −0.19 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Kirill Marchenko R | 18:31 | −0.27 | −0.27 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Gudbranson D | 16:53 | −0.36 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 17:08 | −0.49 | −0.11 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Alexandre Texier L | 19:56 | 1 | −0.50 | −0.19 | −0.31 | +0.20 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Boone Jenner C | 22:50 | −0.58 | −0.18 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.06 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Daniil Tarasov G | 57:33 | −0.46 |
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evgeni Malkin C | 17:58 | 2 | +0.72 | +0.11 | +0.72 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Sidney Crosby C | 21:02 | 2 | +0.45 | +0.10 | −0.19 | +0.43 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.11 | |
| Kris Letang D | 31:15 | 1 | +0.37 | +0.31 | −0.05 | +0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Drew O'Connor L | 15:56 | 1 | +0.33 | +0.04 | +0.17 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Marcus Pettersson D | 21:15 | +0.27 | +0.38 | −0.02 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Valtteri Puustinen R | 9:44 | +0.26 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 21:59 | +0.19 | +0.31 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rickard Rakell R | 13:50 | +0.19 | +0.11 | −0.00 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Carter C | 14:12 | +0.07 | +0.13 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Bryan Rust R | 23:20 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.13 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Graves D | 5:27 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Reilly Smith R | 16:16 | +0.02 | +0.20 | −0.14 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| John St. Ivany D | 13:56 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 16:19 | −0.01 | +0.10 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Jesse Puljujarvi R | 8:40 | −0.05 | +0.05 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Olivier Joseph D | 19:11 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Bunting L | 18:32 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.13 | −0.31 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Samuel Poulin R | 9:01 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Nedeljkovic G | 59:38 | +0.11 |
One game is a tiny sample: a single goal against on a player’s shift or a lucky finish moves his net goals a lot, so don’t trade anyone over a rough night. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they’re built.