TBL beat TOR 4–3 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (TOR 4.1, TBL 3.9), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Alex Killorn scored at 0:33 of overtime, moving TBL’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Matt Murray allowed 2.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 5:18 | TOR | Mitch MarnerSH from David Kampf | 1–0 | 46% → 66% |
| P2 7:40 |  TBL | Vladislav Namestnikov from Anthony Cirelli, Erik Cernak | 1–1 | 32% → 53% |
| P2 16:50 | TOR | William Nylander from Auston Matthews, Michael Bunting | 2–1 | 47% → 71% |
| P3 1:51 | TBL | Nikita KucherovPP from Steven Stamkos, Corey Perry | 2–2 | 27% → 52% |
| P3 4:34 | TBL | Ross ColtonPP from Mikhail Sergachev, Corey Perry | 2–3 | 53% → 79% |
| P3 11:55 | TOR | Mitch MarnerPP unassisted | 3–3 | 16% → 48% |
| OT 0:33 | TBL | Alex Killorn from Anthony Cirelli | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Marner R | 21:51 | 2 | +1.02 | +0.40 | +0.94 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Holl D | 25:59 | +0.57 | +0.26 | +0.00 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.38 | +0.00 | ||
| John Tavares C | 17:26 | +0.27 | +0.27 | −0.19 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.08 | ||
| William Nylander R | 20:10 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.21 | +0.08 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Rasmus Sandin D | 21:00 | +0.10 | +0.43 | −0.16 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Bunting L | 15:09 | 1 | +0.06 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| David Kampf C | 14:10 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.08 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Mark Giordano D | 25:08 | −0.01 | +0.12 | −0.08 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicholas Robertson L | 13:35 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.10 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 10:24 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.08 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Auston Matthews C | 20:09 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.15 | −0.55 | +0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Timothy Liljegren D | 19:24 | −0.24 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre Engvall L | 12:46 | −0.27 | −0.16 | −0.08 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Victor Mete D | 13:36 | −0.27 | −0.26 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Wayne Simmonds R | 7:13 | −0.28 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Pontus Holmberg R | 6:50 | −0.36 | −0.07 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.04 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 13:21 | −0.37 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Mac Hollowell D | 10:10 | −0.62 | −0.32 | −0.01 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Murray G | 60:33 | −2.40 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov R | 22:45 | 1 | +0.56 | −0.19 | +0.41 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.38 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Killorn L | 15:26 | 1 | +0.37 | +0.13 | +0.34 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ross Colton C | 8:48 | 1 | +0.36 | +0.11 | +0.24 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Anthony Cirelli C | 12:51 | 2 | +0.36 | +0.04 | −0.21 | +0.54 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Zach Bogosian D | 8:56 | +0.19 | +0.07 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Corey Perry R | 13:15 | 2 | +0.06 | +0.17 | −0.19 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 10:13 | 1 | +0.05 | −0.09 | +0.19 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Nick Perbix D | 10:08 | +0.02 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Stamkos C | 21:44 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Brayden Point C | 21:43 | −0.06 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.05 | ||
| Erik Cernak D | 19:45 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Paul L | 19:11 | −0.19 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L | 7:49 | −0.20 | −0.05 | −0.11 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Victor Hedman D | 25:00 | −0.26 | −0.27 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Maroon L | 8:28 | −0.26 | +0.02 | −0.20 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 24:38 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.29 | +0.00 | +0.21 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Hagel L | 21:44 | −0.29 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 19:18 | −0.54 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.38 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 60:12 | +1.53 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.