CAR beat TBL 4–3. CAR also won the expected-goals battle 4.5 to 2.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Martin Necas scored on the power play at 16:07 of the third, moving CAR’s win probability from 52% to 90%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TBL–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:12 |  TBL | Blake Coleman from Jan Rutta, Barclay Goodrow | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 5:41 | TBL | Patrick Maroon from Ross Colton | 2–0 | 63% → 76% |
| P2 2:24 | CAR | Cedric Paquette from Martin Necas, Brett Pesce | 2–1 | 19% → 34% |
| P2 3:26 | CAR | Sebastian Aho from Nino Niederreiter, Martin Necas | 2–2 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 15:44 | CAR | Martin NecasPP from Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov | 2–3 | 54% → 75% |
| P3 0:22 | TBL | Mathieu Joseph from Patrick Maroon | 3–3 | 23% → 48% |
| P3 16:07 | CAR | Martin NecasPP from Dougie Hamilton, Jordan Staal | 3–4 | 52% → 90% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Maroon L | 13:19 | 1 | 1 | +0.47 | −0.11 | +0.38 | +0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mathieu Joseph R | 9:07 | 1 | +0.41 | −0.04 | +0.40 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Ross Colton C | 10:32 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.30 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Cal Foote D | 19:02 | +0.14 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 16:30 | +0.13 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.36 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Schenn D | 9:32 | +0.06 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jan Rutta D | 22:08 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.51 | −0.01 | +0.21 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Cirelli C | 17:02 | −0.15 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Tyler Johnson C | 14:54 | −0.22 | +0.04 | −0.22 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Brayden Point C | 17:40 | −0.28 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Andreas Borgman D | 13:29 | −0.29 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.36 | +0.00 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 15:46 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.28 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Steven Stamkos C | 17:12 | −0.32 | −0.23 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 22:14 | −0.33 | −0.02 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Ondrej Palat L | 16:49 | −0.36 | −0.18 | −0.13 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 15:31 | −0.40 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Coleman L | 14:54 | 1 | −0.49 | −0.38 | +0.26 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.36 | +0.00 | |
| Victor Hedman D | 25:23 | −0.72 | −0.68 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 59:13 | −0.98 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Necas C | 23:16 | 2 | 2 | +1.33 | +0.64 | +0.54 | +0.17 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Sebastian Aho C | 23:01 | 1 | 1 | +1.19 | +0.74 | +0.18 | +0.14 | −0.02 | +0.18 | −0.03 |
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 15:59 | 1 | +0.54 | +0.37 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Dougie Hamilton D | 21:52 | 1 | +0.41 | +0.65 | −0.15 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Nino Niederreiter R | 16:00 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.17 | −0.15 | +0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Pesce D | 24:08 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Warren Foegele L | 11:08 | +0.12 | +0.05 | −0.08 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 21:54 | +0.10 | +0.10 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cedric Paquette C | 6:21 | 1 | +0.08 | −0.10 | +0.39 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Bean D | 13:24 | +0.06 | +0.09 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Haydn Fleury D | 10:32 | +0.05 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 21:14 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.47 | −0.42 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Jaccob Slavin D | 21:46 | −0.08 | +0.10 | −0.13 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock McGinn L | 16:01 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Morgan Geekie C | 8:26 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 13:30 | −0.11 | −0.15 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.03 | ||
| Jesper Fast R | 15:44 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Lorentz C | 7:44 | −0.17 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| James Reimer G | 60:00 | −0.52 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.