OTT beat CGY 2–1. OTT lost the expected-goals battle 1.8 to 2.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Chris Tierney scored at 17:24 of the third, moving OTT’s win probability from 51% to 92%. Jacob Markstrom allowed 1.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CGY–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 10:23 | OTT | Ryan Dzingel from Austin Watson, Mike Reilly | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P3 14:54 | CGY | Johnny Gaudreau from Milan Lucic, Nikita Nesterov | 1–1 | 12% → 49% |
| P3 17:24 | OTT | Chris Tierney from Tim Stützle, Mike Reilly | 1–2 | 51% → 92% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 18:44 | 1 | +0.15 | −0.14 | +0.28 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikita Nesterov D | 15:44 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.15 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Leivo L | 9:27 | +0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Milan Lucic L | 17:03 | 1 | +0.11 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Juuso Välimäki D | 16:25 | +0.11 | +0.18 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Monahan C | 18:20 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 15:25 | −0.08 | +0.07 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 17:21 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Chris Tanev D | 22:04 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 22:55 | −0.11 | +0.09 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Ryan C | 10:47 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.13 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Elias Lindholm C | 17:07 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Zac Rinaldo C | 9:16 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.08 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Bennett C | 16:28 | −0.24 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dillon Dube C | 14:39 | −0.27 | +0.02 | −0.18 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Giordano D | 21:03 | −0.30 | −0.25 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 14:50 | −0.41 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 20:19 | −0.48 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 58:03 | −1.63 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Tierney C | 17:02 | 1 | +0.37 | +0.12 | +0.36 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ryan Dzingel C | 12:24 | 1 | +0.30 | −0.03 | +0.38 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Artem Zub D | 21:09 | +0.21 | +0.20 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Stützle C | 15:29 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.07 | −0.05 | +0.15 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Austin Watson L | 12:44 | 1 | +0.13 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Reilly D | 21:07 | 2 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brady Tkachuk L | 16:26 | +0.01 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| Drake Batherson R | 15:32 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 16:33 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin White C | 17:58 | −0.05 | +0.08 | −0.10 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Nick Paul L | 18:21 | −0.05 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Joshua Brown D | 8:05 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zaitsev D | 27:56 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Brown R | 16:50 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.20 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Clark Bishop C | 8:37 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.08 | ||
| Thomas Chabot D | 30:22 | −0.22 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Norris C | 14:08 | −0.22 | +0.03 | −0.21 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Wolanin D | 7:17 | −0.22 | +0.03 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Filip Gustavsson G | 60:00 | +1.14 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.