COL beat CHI 5–3. Call it a steal: COL lost the expected-goals battle 2.4 to 3.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality didn’t support. The goal that mattered most: J.T. Compher scored at 14:38 of the third and moved COL’s win probability from 49% to 86%. A tough night in net for Collin Delia: he allowed 3.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
How it felt from the stands, priced second by second by the site’s win-probability model: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Who was actually getting the chances: a running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Not the arena’s picks, the model’s. Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–CHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 16:09 | COL | Carl Soderberg from Alexander Kerfoot, Sven Andrighetto | 1–0 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 10:48 | CHI | Dylan StromePP from Erik Gustafsson, Duncan Keith | 1–1 | 32% → 53% |
| P2 18:05 | COL | J.T. CompherPP from Mikko Rantanen, Gabriel Landeskog | 2–1 | 48% → 72% |
| P2 19:31 | CHI | Patrick Kane from Jonathan Toews | 2–2 | 28% → 52% |
| P3 3:36 | COL | Gabriel Landeskog from J.T. Compher | 3–2 | 48% → 75% |
| P3 10:00 | CHI | Alex DeBrincatPP from Erik Gustafsson, Jonathan Toews | 3–3 | 21% → 52% |
| P3 14:38 | COL | J.T. Compher from Patrik Nemeth | 4–3 | 49% → 86% |
| P3 19:26 | COL | Carl SoderbergEN from Matt Calvert, Patrik Nemeth | 5–3 | 95% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.T. Compher L | 18:05 | 2 | 1 | +0.72 | −0.15 | +0.66 | +0.21 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 20:29 | 1 | 1 | +0.45 | −0.10 | +0.37 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.18 | −0.04 |
| Carl Soderberg C | 18:50 | 2 | +0.25 | −0.08 | +0.21 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Samuel Girard D | 19:40 | +0.16 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikko Rantanen R | 21:34 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ryan Graves D | 12:00 | +0.08 | +0.10 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrik Nemeth D | 18:17 | 2 | +0.05 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sven Andrighetto R | 12:19 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Agozzino L | 6:42 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Nieto L | 9:37 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| A.J. Greer L | 5:13 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 16:18 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Nikita Zadorov D | 20:16 | −0.14 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 22:02 | −0.19 | +0.03 | −0.25 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Tyson Barrie D | 21:40 | −0.32 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Jost C | 12:43 | −0.40 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Calvert L | 18:02 | 1 | −0.41 | −0.40 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Johnson D | 20:49 | −0.44 | −0.25 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Semyon Varlamov G | 59:55 | +2.02 |
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Strome C | 18:29 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.40 | +0.24 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Jonathan Toews C | 23:45 | 2 | +0.53 | +0.44 | −0.28 | +0.19 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Patrick Kane R | 24:46 | 1 | +0.46 | +0.40 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Gustafsson D | 26:18 | 2 | +0.40 | +0.36 | −0.02 | +0.25 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Alex DeBrincat R | 19:24 | 1 | +0.32 | +0.30 | +0.10 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Duncan Keith D | 25:08 | 1 | +0.28 | +0.26 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Saad L | 16:24 | +0.12 | +0.22 | −0.20 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Marcus Kruger C | 4:52 | +0.04 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Henri Jokiharju D | 9:14 | +0.02 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Hayden C | 5:57 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Sikura R | 7:11 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drake Caggiula L | 17:42 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.08 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Gustav Forsling D | 16:47 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Murphy D | 21:13 | −0.17 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Kunitz L | 6:43 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominik Kahun C | 15:41 | −0.30 | −0.08 | −0.16 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Slater Koekkoek D | 16:52 | −0.40 | −0.35 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artem Anisimov C | 17:56 | −0.47 | +0.09 | −0.45 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Collin Delia G | 58:18 | −3.00 |
One game is a tiny sample: a single goal against on a player’s shift or a lucky finish moves his net goals a lot, so don’t trade anyone over a rough night. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they’re built.