NYR beat TOR 4–3. NYR lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 2.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Mats Zuccarello scored at 19:06 of the third, moving NYR’s win probability from 50% to 96%. Jonathan Bernier allowed 4.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–NYR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 17:57 | TOR | Peter Holland from Byron Froese | 1–0 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 0:44 |  NYR | Ryan McDonagh from Mats Zuccarello, Dan Girardi | 1–1 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 13:55 | NYR | Derek Stepan from Chris Kreider, Marc Staal | 1–2 | 53% → 75% |
| P2 17:38 | TOR | Joffrey Lupul from Byron Froese, Dion Phaneuf | 2–2 | 24% → 47% |
| P3 3:37 | NYR | Derick Brassard from Mats Zuccarello, Kevin Klein | 2–3 | 52% → 79% |
| P3 5:15 | TOR | Dion Phaneuf from Tyler Bozak | 3–3 | 20% → 48% |
| P3 19:06 | NYR | Mats Zuccarello from Ryan McDonagh | 3–4 | 50% → 96% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Froese C | 15:58 | 2 | +0.52 | +0.11 | +0.00 | +0.41 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Dion Phaneuf D | 22:30 | 1 | 1 | +0.42 | +0.17 | +0.25 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Joffrey Lupul L | 15:06 | 1 | +0.37 | +0.06 | +0.22 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Peter Holland C | 10:52 | 1 | +0.31 | −0.04 | +0.42 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Roman Polak D | 17:47 | +0.22 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Gardiner D | 19:41 | +0.11 | +0.17 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Bozak C | 15:32 | 1 | +0.09 | −0.02 | −0.22 | +0.20 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.13 | |
| Shawn Matthias L | 15:26 | +0.08 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Grabner L | 9:51 | +0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Harrington D | 8:41 | +0.05 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Daniel Winnik L | 13:28 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.12 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nick Spaling C | 12:09 | −0.19 | −0.06 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| James van Riemsdyk L | 19:03 | −0.27 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| PA Parenteau R | 16:27 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Hunwick D | 23:52 | −0.32 | −0.27 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Leo Komarov R | 17:36 | −0.34 | −0.16 | −0.08 | −0.11 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 22:56 | −0.38 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nazem Kadri C | 20:07 | −0.39 | −0.09 | −0.14 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Bernier G | 58:58 | −4.00 |
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mats Zuccarello C | 16:52 | 1 | 2 | +0.93 | +0.17 | +0.34 | +0.42 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Ryan McDonagh D | 22:03 | 1 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.18 | +0.37 | +0.23 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Derek Stepan C | 16:24 | 1 | +0.27 | −0.12 | +0.44 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Derick Brassard C | 17:35 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.14 | +0.12 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.04 | |
| Dan Girardi D | 20:45 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.21 | −0.05 | +0.20 | −0.02 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Jesper Fast R | 16:13 | +0.15 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Rick Nash L | 17:52 | +0.13 | +0.14 | −0.09 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jarret Stoll C | 15:29 | +0.07 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Dominic Moore C | 16:39 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Marc Staal D | 22:05 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Kreider L | 16:27 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.21 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| J.T. Miller C | 14:17 | −0.04 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Dylan McIlrath D | 11:00 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Klein D | 26:05 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Viktor Stalberg L | 7:41 | −0.11 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oscar Lindberg L | 10:05 | −0.15 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Kevin Hayes R | 9:59 | −0.19 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Keith Yandle D | 16:29 | −0.19 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Antti Raanta G | 60:00 | +0.06 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.