ANA took this one from WPG, 5–1. Expected goals were close to even (ANA 2.1, WPG 2.2), so it came down to the finishing and the goaltending. The goal that mattered most: Judd Caulfield scored at 14:41 of the first and moved ANA’s win probability from 47% to 64%. A tough night in net for Clay Stevenson: he allowed 1.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
How it felt from the stands, priced second by second by the site’s win-probability model: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Who was actually getting the chances: a running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Not the arena’s picks, the model’s. Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ANA–WPG | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 14:41 | ANA | Judd Caulfield from Jeff Malott, Tim Washe | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 5:20 | ANA | Tim Washe from Jeff Malott, Judd Caulfield | 2–0 | 67% → 82% |
| P3 4:25 | ANA | Sam Colangelo from Beckett Sennecke | 3–0 | 92% → 98% |
| P3 10:36 |  WPG | Kyle Connor from Mark Scheifele, Dylan DeMelo | 3–1 | 1% → 4% |
| P3 14:06 | ANA | Mikael Granlund from Noah Warren, Jackson LaCombe | 4–1 | 98% → 100% |
| P3 19:19 | ANA | Nikita NesterenkoEN from Beckett Sennecke, Mikael Granlund | 5–1 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Malott L | 9:26 | 2 | +0.58 | +0.14 | −0.09 | +0.34 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Tim Washe C | 15:14 | 1 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.18 | +0.36 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Mikael Granlund C | 16:31 | 1 | 1 | +0.48 | +0.02 | +0.48 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Judd Caulfield R | 9:34 | 1 | 1 | +0.48 | +0.14 | +0.29 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Sam Colangelo R | 10:35 | 1 | +0.34 | +0.02 | +0.35 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Noah Warren D | 24:12 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.11 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jackson LaCombe D | 27:02 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.16 | −0.02 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyson Hinds D | 13:48 | +0.11 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tristan Luneau D | 14:22 | +0.11 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Leo Carlsson C | 16:25 | +0.06 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 18:42 | +0.05 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Beckett Sennecke R | 17:03 | 2 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.24 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 21:24 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| A.J. Greer L | 12:33 | −0.04 | +0.06 | −0.09 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nikita Nesterenko C | 11:58 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cutter Gauthier L | 18:20 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Travis Mitchell D | 17:31 | −0.15 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Poehling C | 17:20 | −0.45 | +0.04 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.38 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal G | 60:00 | +1.02 |
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Lowry C | 13:28 | +0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Perfetti C | 22:20 | +0.13 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.11 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Connor L | 23:56 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.02 | +0.18 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan DeMelo D | 21:40 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Isak Rosen R | 14:56 | +0.10 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Scheifele C | 22:18 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.06 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Morgan Barron C | 14:12 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Dylan Samberg D | 22:06 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Iafallo L | 14:43 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyrel Bauer D | 8:24 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Haydn Fleury D | 15:26 | −0.11 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 19:58 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gabriel Vilardi C | 18:36 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.23 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.04 | ||
| Cole Koepke L | 7:32 | −0.16 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Neal Pionk D | 25:02 | −0.17 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 11:15 | −0.18 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Viggo Björck C | 17:33 | −0.22 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brad Lambert C | 8:27 | −0.36 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Clay Stevenson G | 56:08 | −1.54 |
One game is a tiny sample: a single goal against on a player’s shift or a lucky finish moves his net goals a lot, so don’t trade anyone over a rough night. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they’re built.