CBJ beat PIT 3–2 in a shootout. No robbery here: CBJ also won the expected-goals battle 4.5 to 2.8, and the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Evgeni Malkin scored at 3:19 of the third, taking PIT’s win probability from 21% to 48%. Sergei Murashov stood on his head: 4.2 goals saved above expected.
Win probability
How it felt from the stands, priced second by second by the site’s win-probability model: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Who was actually getting the chances: a running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Not the arena’s picks, the model’s. Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 10:52 | CBJ | Damon Severson from Zach Werenski, Cole Sillinger | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 11:40 | CBJ | Mathieu Olivier from Damon Severson, Cole Sillinger | 0–2 | 74% → 89% |
| P2 14:30 | PIT | Bryan Rust from Samuel Girard | 1–2 | 10% → 25% |
| P3 3:19 | PIT | Evgeni Malkin from Erik Karlsson | 2–2 | 21% → 48% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Karlsson D | 24:50 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.26 | −0.01 | +0.07 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Declan Carlile D | 20:19 | +0.07 | +0.13 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Dewar C | 13:35 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgeni Malkin C | 17:30 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.28 | +0.29 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tommy Novak C | 14:33 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.04 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicholas Robertson L | 10:10 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Samuel Girard D | 19:28 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kaedan Korczak D | 19:05 | −0.12 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Hendrix Lapierre C | 12:03 | −0.13 | +0.04 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 19:32 | −0.20 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bryan Rust R | 18:21 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.17 | +0.32 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ville Koivunen R | 13:13 | −0.25 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sidney Crosby C | 19:40 | −0.28 | +0.02 | −0.34 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Lizotte C | 13:30 | −0.33 | +0.03 | −0.24 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 | +0.00 | ||
| Egor Chinakhov R | 14:36 | −0.35 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.37 | ||
| Kris Letang D | 19:14 | −0.49 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rickard Rakell R | 20:29 | −0.52 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.31 | ||
| Ben Kindel C | 17:19 | −0.71 | +0.16 | −0.22 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.47 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Murashov G | 65:00 | +4.18 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kent Johnson C | 18:10 | +0.50 | +0.08 | −0.18 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.68 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 22:20 | 1 | 1 | +0.49 | +0.23 | +0.36 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mathieu Olivier R | 16:35 | 1 | +0.29 | +0.10 | +0.26 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Danton Heinen L | 12:01 | +0.09 | +0.02 | −0.08 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Gudbranson D | 16:56 | +0.06 | +0.08 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Lomberg L | 9:15 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Sillinger C | 16:41 | 2 | −0.05 | +0.12 | −0.07 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Carson Soucy D | 17:29 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Denton Mateychuk D | 23:29 | −0.10 | +0.09 | −0.06 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 16:01 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Monahan C | 16:11 | −0.21 | +0.14 | −0.20 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Andrae D | 7:40 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Garland R | 9:48 | −0.25 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | ||
| Matthew Knies L | 20:38 | −0.29 | −0.23 | −0.30 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.38 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Werenski D | 29:36 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.01 | −0.34 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 12:43 | −0.42 | −0.01 | −0.34 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charlie Coyle C | 23:30 | −0.53 | +0.34 | −0.53 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.15 | ||
| Adam Fantilli C | 21:57 | −0.75 | −0.32 | −0.15 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.12 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Talbot G | 65:00 | +3.58 |
One game is a tiny sample: a single goal against on a player’s shift or a lucky finish moves his net goals a lot, so don’t trade anyone over a rough night. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they’re built.