SEA beat DET 6–3. On shot quality it was a coin flip (SEA 3.5, DET 3.7 in expected goals); the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Mackie Samoskevich scored at 6:59 of the second, taking SEA’s win probability from 47% to 67%. A tough night in net for John Gibson: he allowed 3.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
How it felt from the stands, priced second by second by the site’s win-probability model: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Who was actually getting the chances: a running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Not the arena’s picks, the model’s. Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SEA–DET | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:19 |  DET | Viktor ArvidssonPP from Lucas Raymond, Moritz Seider | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
| P1 14:52 |  SEA | Berkly Catton from Kaapo Kakko, Joshua Mahura | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 4:00 | DET | William Wallinder from Alex DeBrincat, Michael Brandsegg-Nygård | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 4:39 | SEA | Frederick Gaudreau from Ryan Winterton, Ben Meyers | 2–2 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 6:59 | SEA | Mackie Samoskevich from Jared McCann | 3–2 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 7:44 | SEA | Frederick Gaudreau from Ryan Winterton, Ben Meyers | 4–2 | 68% → 83% |
| P2 14:05 | SEA | Ben Meyers from Berkly Catton, Brandon Montour | 5–2 | 86% → 96% |
| P3 11:53 | SEA | Vince DunnPP from Chandler Stephenson, Brandon Montour | 6–2 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 15:27 | DET | Michael Brandsegg-Nygård unassisted | 6–3 | 0% → 0% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 15:36 | 2 | +0.83 | −0.07 | +0.89 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Berkly Catton C | 14:33 | 1 | 1 | +0.48 | −0.00 | +0.14 | +0.13 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 |
| Ben Meyers C | 13:37 | 1 | 2 | +0.42 | −0.01 | +0.27 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Ryan Winterton C | 13:22 | 2 | +0.36 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.37 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vince Dunn D | 21:51 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.02 | +0.35 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryker Evans D | 23:05 | +0.28 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared McCann L | 12:01 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.16 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mackie Samoskevich R | 16:04 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.06 | +0.30 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Montour D | 26:03 | 2 | +0.21 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joshua Mahura D | 12:26 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shane Wright C | 12:21 | +0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Kaapo Kakko R | 13:50 | 1 | +0.05 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.12 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matty Beniers C | 17:41 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Chandler Stephenson C | 16:54 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.13 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Bobby McMann C | 15:57 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.11 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 20:39 | −0.23 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ville Ottavainen D | 13:39 | −0.25 | −0.26 | −0.05 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Eberle R | 15:40 | −0.32 | −0.03 | −0.12 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Philipp Grubauer G | 59:55 | +1.04 |
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Wallinder D | 18:16 | 1 | +0.33 | −0.06 | +0.47 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Viktor Arvidsson L | 17:37 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.12 | +0.23 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Moritz Seider D | 22:23 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.17 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Faulk D | 18:49 | +0.10 | −0.09 | −0.04 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Larkin C | 18:19 | +0.05 | +0.17 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Albert Johansson D | 21:17 | −0.02 | +0.05 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lucas Raymond L | 17:26 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.08 | −0.23 | +0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Brandsegg-Nygård R | 14:18 | 1 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.08 | +0.11 | +0.12 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Alex DeBrincat R | 16:01 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Andrew Copp C | 15:21 | −0.08 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.07 | ||
| Keegan Kolesar R | 13:19 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Rasmussen C | 15:19 | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nate Danielson C | 10:50 | −0.15 | +0.06 | −0.10 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Emmitt Finnie C | 15:37 | −0.15 | −0.11 | −0.10 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ben Chiarot D | 17:08 | −0.20 | +0.09 | −0.01 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Carter Mazur L | 11:36 | −0.23 | +0.07 | −0.17 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anton Johansson D | 19:44 | −0.27 | +0.00 | −0.15 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sheldon Dries C | 11:11 | −0.30 | +0.09 | −0.29 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Daniil Tarasov G | 25:55 | +0.03 |
| John Gibson G | 34:05 | −3.26 |
One game is a tiny sample: a single goal against on a player’s shift or a lucky finish moves his net goals a lot, so don’t trade anyone over a rough night. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they’re built.