VGK took this one from TOR, 4–3 in a shootout. No robbery here: VGK also won the expected-goals battle 5.1 to 2.7, and the better chances went the right way. The goal that mattered most: Jack Eichel scored on the power play at 3:58 of the second and moved VGK’s win probability from 33% to 53%. Sergei Bobrovsky stood on his head: 4.4 goals saved above expected.
Win probability
How it felt from the stands, priced second by second by the site’s win-probability model: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Who was actually getting the chances: a running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Not the arena’s picks, the model’s. Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–VGK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:34 | TOR | Jack Roslovic from Auston Matthews, Kirill Marchenko | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 3:20 | TOR | Easton Cowan from Chris Tanev | 2–0 | 62% → 75% |
| P1 8:37 | TOR | Nick Paul from Darren Raddysh, Gavin McKenna | 3–0 | 76% → 90% |
| P1 17:36 | VGK | Mark Stone from Jack Eichel, Ivan Barbashev | 3–1 | 8% → 21% |
| P2 1:12 | VGK | Brett Howden from Mitch Marner, William Karlsson | 3–2 | 19% → 34% |
| P2 3:58 | VGK | Jack EichelPP unassisted | 3–3 | 33% → 53% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirill Marchenko R | 18:20 | 1 | +0.36 | −0.17 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.68 | |
| Easton Cowan R | 14:00 | 1 | +0.25 | −0.03 | +0.30 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Paul L | 17:05 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.03 | +0.24 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Troy Stecher D | 16:35 | +0.11 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 15:47 | +0.04 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | ||
| Teddy Blueger C | 11:02 | −0.14 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Bo Groulx C | 6:09 | −0.17 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darren Raddysh D | 24:45 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.30 | −0.03 | +0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Roslovic C | 17:32 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.32 | +0.19 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Duhaime R | 12:07 | −0.22 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 23:32 | −0.26 | −0.37 | −0.03 | +0.11 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Tanev D | 22:10 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.35 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Gavin McKenna L | 14:08 | 1 | −0.36 | +0.14 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.47 | |
| Morgan Rielly D | 20:57 | −0.39 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 15:22 | −0.41 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.38 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Tavares C | 15:26 | −0.58 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.48 | ||
| Auston Matthews C | 21:32 | 1 | −0.58 | −0.29 | −0.07 | +0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.09 | −0.37 | |
| William Nylander R | 20:31 | −1.14 | −0.16 | −0.43 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.48 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky G | 65:00 | +4.44 |
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Connelly L | 15:26 | +0.84 | +0.33 | −0.30 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +1.03 | ||
| Braeden Bowman R | 13:36 | +0.62 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.68 | ||
| Mark Stone R | 23:57 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.42 | +0.14 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | |
| Ivan Barbashev L | 18:34 | 1 | +0.51 | +0.32 | −0.13 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.38 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Eichel C | 26:38 | 1 | 1 | +0.46 | +0.60 | +0.17 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.37 |
| Brayden McNabb D | 18:10 | +0.19 | +0.17 | −0.03 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Howden C | 15:18 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.17 | +0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Parker Wotherspoon D | 17:00 | +0.09 | +0.19 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc Gatcomb C | 10:08 | −0.01 | +0.07 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 18:42 | −0.07 | +0.25 | −0.14 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Raphael Lavoie C | 8:14 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 15:59 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nic Dowd C | 11:15 | −0.16 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | ||
| William Karlsson C | 18:55 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | |
| Tomas Hertl C | 14:41 | −0.25 | +0.12 | −0.25 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 21:48 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shea Theodore D | 20:49 | −0.47 | +0.12 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.47 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 24:10 | 1 | −0.88 | −0.10 | −0.37 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.48 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Adin Hill G | 64:40 | +2.61 |
One game is a tiny sample: a single goal against on a player’s shift or a lucky finish moves his net goals a lot, so don’t trade anyone over a rough night. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they’re built.