COL beat CGY 7–3. COL lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 2.8 and won anyway. The shot quality didn’t support it; the scoreboard doesn’t ask. The goal that mattered most: Devon Toews scored at 6:45 of the second and moved COL’s win probability from 47% to 67%. A tough night in net for Devin Cooley: he allowed 2.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
How it felt from the stands, priced second by second by the site’s win-probability model: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Who was actually getting the chances: a running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Not the arena’s picks, the model’s. Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–CGY | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 15:54 |  COL | Devon Toews from Cale Makar, Brock Nelson | 1–0 | 47% → 65% |
| P1 17:30 |  CGY | Adam Klapka from Jonathan Castagna | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 6:45 | COL | Devon Toews from Noah Juulsen, Parker Kelly | 2–1 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 9:16 | COL | Cale Makar from Nathan MacKinnon, Brett Kulak | 3–1 | 68% → 84% |
| P2 11:39 | COL | Nathan MacKinnon from Zachary L'Heureux | 4–1 | 85% → 96% |
| P3 5:35 | COL | Cale Makar from Nathan MacKinnon, Nazem Kadri | 5–1 | 99% → 100% |
| P3 6:34 | COL | Jaden Schwartz from T.J. Hughes, Brett Kulak | 6–1 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 7:17 | CGY | Mikael Backlund from Ryan Strome | 6–2 | 0% → 0% |
| P3 8:28 | CGY | Kevin Bahl from Joel Farabee, Yegor Sharangovich | 6–3 | 0% → 1% |
| P3 9:41 | COL | Jaden Schwartz from Fedor Svechkov, Brent Burns | 7–3 | 99% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cale Makar D | 22:17 | 2 | 1 | +0.96 | −0.15 | +0.93 | +0.14 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jaden Schwartz C | 13:51 | 2 | +0.84 | −0.02 | +0.89 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Devon Toews D | 18:54 | 2 | +0.78 | +0.03 | +0.90 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 18:42 | 1 | 2 | +0.69 | −0.14 | +0.42 | +0.39 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Brock Nelson C | 15:35 | 1 | +0.22 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.04 | |
| Fedor Svechkov C | 11:55 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.20 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Brent Burns D | 20:00 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zachary L'Heureux L | 10:56 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.03 | −0.09 | +0.25 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Manson D | 20:27 | +0.16 | +0.12 | −0.02 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Roy C | 14:03 | +0.13 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Noah Juulsen D | 16:35 | 1 | +0.13 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 17:22 | +0.10 | −0.13 | −0.06 | +0.06 | +0.04 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 14:09 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 18:42 | 2 | −0.06 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| T.J. Hughes R | 16:26 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.29 | +0.22 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Martin Necas C | 17:18 | −0.14 | +0.04 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Parker Kelly C | 11:34 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.05 | −0.09 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Nazem Kadri C | 17:14 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.35 | −0.05 | +0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Wedgewood G | 60:00 | +0.70 |
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Bahl D | 21:59 | 1 | +0.49 | +0.24 | +0.38 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Klapka R | 10:40 | 1 | +0.42 | +0.05 | +0.44 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ryan Strome C | 14:39 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 14:49 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.14 | −0.10 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Castagna C | 9:09 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.22 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matvei Gridin R | 14:48 | +0.09 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Aydar Suniev L | 11:41 | +0.04 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Whitecloud D | 18:12 | +0.03 | +0.10 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 18:34 | +0.02 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yan Kuznetsov D | 18:51 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 17:41 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.18 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 | |
| Martin Pospisil C | 14:46 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Joel Farabee L | 17:03 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Simon Nemec D | 20:10 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.07 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Coronato R | 16:24 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Samuel Honzek L | 15:53 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Frost C | 17:24 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Zayne Parekh D | 21:17 | −0.47 | −0.10 | −0.03 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.38 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Devin Cooley G | 60:00 | −2.74 |
One game is a tiny sample: a single goal against on a player’s shift or a lucky finish moves his net goals a lot, so don’t trade anyone over a rough night. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they’re built.