NYI beat CHI 4–1. On shot quality it was a coin flip (CHI 2.2, NYI 2.4 in expected goals); the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Bo Horvat scored on the power play at 19:01 of the first, taking NYI’s win probability from 54% to 71%. In net, Ilya Sorokin saved 1.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
How it felt from the stands, priced second by second by the site’s win-probability model: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Who was actually getting the chances: a running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Not the arena’s picks, the model’s. Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CHI–NYI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 19:01 | NYI | Bo HorvatPP from Matthew Schaefer | 0–1 | 54% → 71% |
| P2 6:44 | NYI | Emil Heineman from Matias Maccelli, Adam Pelech | 0–2 | 73% → 87% |
| P2 9:38 | NYI | Anthony Duclair from Logan Stanley, Jean-Gabriel Pageau | 0–3 | 88% → 96% |
| P3 17:26 |  CHI | Frank NazarPP from Patrick Kane, Sam Rinzel | 1–3 | 0% → 1% |
| P3 18:27 | NYI | Bo HorvatEN from Logan Stanley | 1–4 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Nazar C | 19:15 | 1 | +0.12 | −0.15 | +0.69 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.38 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Vlasic D | 16:28 | +0.01 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominic Toninato C | 8:33 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Patrick Kane R | 18:07 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Greenway L | 15:31 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.07 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artyom Levshunov D | 19:33 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Donato C | 9:54 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Lardis L | 11:21 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 20:46 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 14:34 | −0.16 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bowen Byram D | 26:35 | −0.18 | −0.04 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Roman Kantserov R | 21:09 | −0.19 | −0.03 | −0.08 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Sam Rinzel D | 18:05 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Smith L | 14:54 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Wyatt Kaiser D | 16:42 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Greene C | 14:49 | −0.24 | −0.03 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Anton Frondell C | 20:17 | −0.27 | +0.00 | −0.14 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Oliver Moore C | 12:00 | −0.40 | −0.15 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Arvid Soderblom G | 57:51 | −0.45 |
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Horvat C | 17:53 | 2 | +0.69 | +0.20 | +0.12 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.38 | +0.06 | |
| Emil Heineman L | 16:39 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.09 | +0.43 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Ryan Pulock D | 18:55 | +0.18 | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Stanley D | 23:51 | 2 | +0.18 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden Schenn C | 15:37 | +0.17 | +0.08 | −0.09 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Duclair L | 12:20 | 1 | +0.15 | −0.01 | +0.37 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 15:18 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Adam Pelech D | 21:17 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.10 | −0.06 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matthew Schaefer D | 26:45 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.05 | −0.10 | +0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matias Maccelli L | 15:28 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.14 | −0.19 | +0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ondrej Palat L | 12:35 | +0.02 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Palmieri C | 13:28 | −0.03 | +0.15 | −0.12 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calum Ritchie C | 13:52 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Victor Eklund R | 13:49 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Holmstrom R | 15:36 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tony DeAngelo D | 13:39 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Mayfield D | 12:32 | −0.20 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 14:32 | −0.32 | +0.07 | −0.34 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin G | 60:00 | +1.06 |
One game is a tiny sample: a single goal against on a player’s shift or a lucky finish moves his net goals a lot, so don’t trade anyone over a rough night. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they’re built.