CAR took this one from VAN, 7–2. No robbery here: CAR also won the expected-goals battle 4.8 to 1.7, and the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: K'Andre Miller scored at 1:18 of the first, taking CAR’s win probability from 53% to 69%. A tough night in net for Kevin Lankinen: he allowed 1.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
How it felt from the stands, priced second by second by the site’s win-probability model: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Who was actually getting the chances: a running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Not the arena’s picks, the model’s. Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VAN–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:18 |  CAR | K'Andre Miller from William Carrier, Sean Walker | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 7:11 | CAR | Andrei SvechnikovPP from Shayne Gostisbehere, Jackson Blake | 0–2 | 70% → 83% |
| P1 9:25 | CAR | Andrei SvechnikovPP from Jackson Blake, Shayne Gostisbehere | 0–3 | 84% → 90% |
| P2 3:20 | CAR | Mark Jankowski from Jesperi Kotkaniemi | 0–4 | 94% → 99% |
| P2 4:03 |  VAN | Jake DeBrusk from Jonathan Lekkerimäki, Elias Pettersson | 1–4 | 1% → 5% |
| P2 13:13 | CAR | Logan StankovenSH from Sean Walker, Sebastian Aho | 1–5 | 97% → 99% |
| P2 19:02 | CAR | Logan StankovenPP from Taylor Hall, Sean Walker | 1–6 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 11:36 | CAR | Logan Stankoven from Taylor Hall, Sean Walker | 1–7 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 13:04 | VAN | Jake DeBrusk from Elias Pettersson, Zeev Buium | 2–7 | 0% → 0% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake DeBrusk L | 18:44 | 2 | +0.85 | −0.02 | +0.75 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Lekkerimäki R | 17:20 | 1 | +0.19 | −0.02 | −0.16 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Elias Pettersson C | 20:20 | 2 | +0.08 | −0.02 | −0.09 | +0.25 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Elias Pettersson D | 16:57 | +0.08 | −0.02 | −0.09 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Marco Rossi C | 18:55 | +0.08 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.04 | ||
| Zeev Buium D | 23:49 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Victor Mancini D | 15:24 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aatu Räty C | 8:36 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Paul Cotter C | 14:36 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Arshdeep Bains L | 9:38 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tom Willander D | 20:28 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 14:48 | −0.14 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Liam Ohgren L | 13:09 | −0.15 | −0.04 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Hronek D | 23:52 | −0.18 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Boeser R | 18:15 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.07 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew O'Connor L | 12:48 | −0.26 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Sasson C | 13:46 | −0.27 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.06 | ||
| Linus Karlsson C | 15:43 | −0.34 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Leevi Meriläinen G | 20:00 | +0.01 |
| Kevin Lankinen G | 39:42 | −1.92 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Stankoven C | 15:08 | 3 | +1.22 | +0.03 | +1.36 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 15:19 | 2 | +0.69 | +0.13 | +0.60 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 19:29 | 2 | +0.45 | +0.14 | −0.07 | +0.19 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Jankowski L | 15:07 | 1 | +0.38 | +0.06 | +0.37 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Sean Walker D | 21:23 | 4 | +0.29 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.23 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| K'Andre Miller D | 20:17 | 1 | +0.28 | +0.09 | +0.43 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Taylor Hall L | 13:43 | 2 | +0.20 | +0.02 | −0.07 | +0.25 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| William Carrier L | 12:48 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.04 | −0.09 | +0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jackson Blake R | 15:31 | 2 | +0.10 | +0.12 | −0.45 | +0.24 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Staal C | 13:35 | +0.09 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 11:08 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 13:24 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.15 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jaccob Slavin D | 21:01 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 17:41 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.13 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Eric Robinson L | 14:29 | −0.10 | +0.06 | −0.35 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Reilly D | 16:41 | −0.13 | +0.05 | −0.04 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 15:47 | −0.38 | +0.02 | −0.33 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jalen Chatfield D | 19:29 | −0.49 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.38 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Pyotr Kochetkov G | 60:00 | +0.12 |
One game is a tiny sample: a single goal against on a player’s shift or a lucky finish moves his net goals a lot, so don’t trade anyone over a rough night. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they’re built.