NSH beat MTL 5–2. NSH lost the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 3.3 and won anyway. The shot quality didn’t support it; the scoreboard doesn’t ask. The goal that mattered most: Ryan O'Reilly scored on the power play at 16:44 of the third and moved NSH’s win probability from 51% to 90%. A tough night in net for Jacob Fowler: he allowed 2.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
How it felt from the stands, priced second by second by the site’s win-probability model: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Who was actually getting the chances: a running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Not the arena’s picks, the model’s. Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NSH–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 3:12 |  MTL | Nick Suzuki unassisted | 0–1 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 8:50 | MTL | Alex Newhook from Josh Anderson | 0–2 | 73% → 88% |
| P2 15:06 |  NSH | Alexander Kerfoot from Adam Wilsby, Ross Colton | 1–2 | 10% → 25% |
| P2 19:28 | NSH | Matthew WoodPP from Steven Stamkos, Filip Forsberg | 2–2 | 24% → 49% |
| P3 16:44 | NSH | Ryan O'ReillyPP from Roman Josi, Steven Stamkos | 3–2 | 51% → 90% |
| P3 17:23 | NSH | Adam EdstromEN from Brady Skjei, Alexander Kerfoot | 4–2 | 90% → 99% |
| P3 18:34 | NSH | Adam EdstromEN from Roman Josi, Jack Drury | 5–2 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Stamkos C | 20:46 | 2 | +0.54 | −0.05 | −0.22 | +0.24 | −0.00 | +0.57 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 14:46 | 1 | 1 | +0.47 | +0.06 | +0.43 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Filip Forsberg L | 19:48 | 1 | +0.18 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Matthew Wood R | 13:29 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.13 | +0.34 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Roman Josi D | 27:49 | 2 | +0.00 | −0.12 | −0.06 | +0.16 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| William Trudeau D | 4:39 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Colton C | 12:15 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Reid Schaefer L | 9:36 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 23:04 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.18 | +0.33 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Adam Edstrom C | 10:19 | 2 | −0.13 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jack Drury C | 16:41 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.04 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Mavrik Bourque C | 8:15 | −0.14 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 18:06 | −0.16 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 21:29 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Perbix D | 20:47 | −0.22 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nils Hoglander L | 12:48 | −0.22 | −0.17 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Adam Wilsby D | 20:41 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.42 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nicolas Hague D | 18:42 | −0.31 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 60:00 | +2.06 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Suzuki C | 21:01 | 1 | +0.51 | +0.23 | +0.45 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Alex Newhook C | 17:02 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.02 | +0.38 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Lane Hutson D | 24:43 | +0.16 | +0.47 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Engstrom D | 11:49 | +0.09 | +0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 20:44 | +0.09 | +0.39 | −0.10 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Kreider L | 14:59 | +0.07 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 12:38 | +0.04 | +0.06 | −0.18 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Phillip Danault C | 18:38 | −0.03 | +0.15 | −0.08 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Alexandre Texier L | 13:43 | −0.03 | +0.05 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Florian Xhekaj L | 6:24 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Arber Xhekaj D | 11:59 | −0.05 | +0.09 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Carrier D | 21:57 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Bolduc R | 15:51 | −0.08 | +0.07 | −0.12 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirby Dach C | 7:42 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 17:24 | −0.10 | +0.09 | −0.27 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Cole Caufield R | 18:00 | −0.15 | +0.21 | −0.44 | +0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 14:24 | 1 | −0.23 | +0.13 | −0.36 | +0.19 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Matheson D | 23:42 | −0.35 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Fowler G | 58:53 | −2.13 |
One game is a tiny sample: a single goal against on a player’s shift or a lucky finish moves his net goals a lot, so don’t trade anyone over a rough night. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they’re built.