DAL took this one from BUF, 4–0. DAL lost the expected-goals battle 2.3 to 2.8 and won anyway. The shot quality didn’t support it; the scoreboard doesn’t ask. The goal that mattered most: Jason Robertson scored at 9:03 of the first and moved DAL’s win probability from 47% to 63%. A tough night in net for Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: he allowed 1.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
How it felt from the stands, priced second by second by the site’s win-probability model: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Who was actually getting the chances: a running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Not the arena’s picks, the model’s. Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DAL–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:03 |  DAL | Jason Robertson from Mikko Rantanen, Wyatt Johnston | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 9:36 | DAL | Sam Steel from Thomas Harley, Mikko Rantanen | 2–0 | 68% → 84% |
| P2 13:57 | DAL | Mikko Rantanen from Nils Lundkvist, Wyatt Johnston | 3–0 | 86% → 96% |
| P2 15:34 | DAL | Roope HintzPP from Wyatt Johnston, Mikko Rantanen | 4–0 | 97% → 99% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikko Rantanen R | 15:27 | 1 | 3 | +0.87 | +0.11 | +0.40 | +0.35 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Sam Steel C | 15:31 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.05 | +0.47 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Wyatt Johnston C | 16:40 | 3 | +0.41 | +0.10 | −0.03 | +0.31 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Jason Robertson L | 15:14 | 1 | +0.32 | +0.13 | +0.22 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Thomas Harley D | 23:35 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.24 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Roope Hintz C | 14:57 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.11 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Miro Heiskanen D | 19:40 | +0.19 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Esa Lindell D | 21:57 | +0.12 | +0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nils Lundkvist D | 18:08 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.21 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Myers D | 17:30 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Bäck C | 14:22 | +0.02 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Benn L | 12:26 | −0.00 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Arttu Hyry R | 15:02 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Justin Hryckowian C | 14:48 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Seguin C | 15:40 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Radek Faksa C | 13:11 | −0.11 | +0.09 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Colin Blackwell C | 12:18 | −0.13 | +0.07 | −0.17 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Lian Bichsel D | 17:34 | −0.18 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger G | 72:20 | +1.02 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Power D | 25:23 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jiri Kulich C | 11:42 | −0.03 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Olen Zellweger D | 17:43 | −0.06 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Louis Crevier D | 13:22 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Metsa D | 13:33 | −0.13 | −0.11 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 17:39 | −0.14 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Beck Malenstyn L | 9:55 | −0.15 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Konsta Helenius C | 13:38 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 16:16 | −0.16 | +0.04 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Justin Danforth R | 11:44 | −0.18 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jack Quinn R | 18:01 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.07 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Doan R | 16:26 | −0.21 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Ostlund C | 17:05 | −0.27 | +0.02 | −0.06 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.09 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 26:24 | −0.28 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McLeod C | 16:57 | −0.34 | −0.17 | −0.11 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Josh Norris C | 14:19 | −0.35 | −0.17 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Tage Thompson C | 19:08 | −0.36 | +0.03 | −0.27 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Zach Benson L | 18:18 | −0.46 | −0.01 | −0.39 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G | 59:54 | −1.06 |
One game is a tiny sample: a single goal against on a player’s shift or a lucky finish moves his net goals a lot, so don’t trade anyone over a rough night. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they’re built.