EDM took this one from ANA, 5–2. EDM lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 3.5 and won anyway. The shot quality didn’t support it; the scoreboard doesn’t ask. The biggest swing: Evan Bouchard scored at 14:12 of the second, taking EDM’s win probability from 47% to 70%. A tough night in net for Lukas Dostal: he allowed 3.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
How it felt from the stands, priced second by second by the site’s win-probability model: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Who was actually getting the chances: a running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Not the arena’s picks, the model’s. Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | EDM–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:11 |  ANA | Beckett SenneckePP from Mikael Granlund, Leo Carlsson | 0–1 | 54% → 69% |
| P1 15:28 | ANA | Beckett SenneckePP from Leo Carlsson, Jackson LaCombe | 0–2 | 71% → 84% |
| P2 0:11 | EDM | Evan Bouchard from Leon Draisaitl | 1–2 | 14% → 28% |
| P2 6:30 | EDM | Kasperi KapanenPP from Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard | 2–2 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 14:12 | EDM | Evan Bouchard from Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid | 3–2 | 47% → 70% |
| P2 16:49 | EDM | Vasily Podkolzin from Leon Draisaitl | 4–2 | 71% → 88% |
| P2 19:08 | EDM | Connor McDavid from Leon Draisaitl, Mattias Ekholm | 5–2 | 89% → 97% |
Every player
Show both lineups
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid C | 24:31 | 1 | 2 | +1.24 | +0.18 | +0.43 | +0.42 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.04 |
| Evan Bouchard D | 23:09 | 2 | 1 | +1.08 | +0.15 | +0.83 | +0.12 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Leon Draisaitl C | 19:18 | 4 | +1.04 | +0.14 | −0.12 | +1.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Vasily Podkolzin R | 18:13 | 1 | +0.37 | +0.18 | +0.11 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Mattias Ekholm D | 21:56 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.14 | −0.06 | +0.22 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 16:22 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.01 | +0.25 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mathieu Joseph R | 14:43 | +0.14 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Alex Formenton L | 15:17 | +0.01 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Dickinson C | 9:33 | −0.02 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Trent Frederic C | 11:33 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ty Emberson D | 11:10 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Jones L | 7:21 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Michaels R | 13:41 | −0.12 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Ryan Shea D | 24:30 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.20 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Isaac Howard L | 10:05 | −0.28 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Walman D | 15:50 | −0.38 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Samanski C | 9:50 | −0.43 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.37 | +0.03 | ||
| Connor Murphy D | 19:21 | −0.63 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.56 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Devon Levi G | 59:49 | +0.26 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikael Granlund C | 21:33 | 1 | +0.42 | +0.09 | −0.13 | +0.11 | +0.01 | +0.37 | −0.04 | |
| Beckett Sennecke R | 24:58 | 2 | +0.22 | +0.07 | +0.28 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Poehling C | 13:07 | +0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Leo Carlsson C | 23:36 | 2 | +0.11 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Jeff Malott L | 9:00 | +0.08 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Tyson Hinds D | 11:53 | +0.04 | +0.09 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Warren D | 17:17 | +0.00 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Klepov R | 10:03 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jackson LaCombe D | 29:18 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Judd Caulfield R | 10:06 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Mitchell D | 13:12 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.08 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| A.J. Greer L | 9:18 | −0.17 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 9:30 | −0.19 | +0.07 | −0.20 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Washe C | 17:19 | −0.21 | −0.06 | −0.29 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 17:45 | −0.22 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tristan Luneau D | 21:33 | −0.30 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Nesterenko C | 11:08 | −0.34 | −0.03 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Cutter Gauthier L | 24:10 | −0.60 | −0.07 | −0.30 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ville Husso G | 15:58 | +0.00 |
| Lukas Dostal G | 39:41 | −2.96 |
One game is a tiny sample: a single goal against on a player’s shift or a lucky finish moves his net goals a lot, so don’t trade anyone over a rough night. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they’re built.