WPG beat COL 3–2. Call it a steal: WPG lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 2.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality didn’t support. The biggest swing: Kyle Connor scored at 19:00 of the third, taking WPG’s win probability from 50% to 96%. A tough night in net for Mackenzie Blackwood: he allowed 3.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
How it felt from the stands, priced second by second by the site’s win-probability model: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Who was actually getting the chances: a running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Not the arena’s picks, the model’s. Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–WPG | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 2:51 |  COL | Jaden Schwartz from Fedor Svechkov, Brent Burns | 1–0 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 4:01 |  WPG | Kyle Connor from Neal Pionk, Dylan Samberg | 1–1 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 18:16 | WPG | Cole Perfetti from Dylan Samberg, Mark Scheifele | 1–2 | 53% → 76% |
| P3 12:35 | COL | Fedor Svechkov from Jaden Schwartz, Brett Kulak | 2–2 | 15% → 49% |
| P3 19:00 | WPG | Kyle Connor from Mark Scheifele | 2–3 | 50% → 96% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaden Schwartz C | 13:17 | 1 | 1 | +0.49 | −0.04 | +0.34 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Fedor Svechkov C | 12:55 | 1 | 1 | +0.39 | +0.00 | +0.39 | +0.21 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 |
| T.J. Hughes R | 12:00 | +0.11 | +0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Sam Malinski D | 18:37 | +0.04 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 17:09 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.02 | −0.05 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Devon Toews D | 21:28 | +0.02 | +0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Parker Kelly C | 12:56 | −0.04 | +0.08 | −0.03 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 17:21 | −0.04 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Roy C | 12:10 | −0.07 | +0.12 | −0.16 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 20:11 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Josh Manson D | 16:56 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brent Burns D | 17:28 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cale Makar D | 25:16 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary L'Heureux L | 8:22 | −0.13 | +0.08 | −0.16 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nazem Kadri C | 18:06 | −0.17 | +0.05 | −0.15 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 15:16 | −0.38 | −0.21 | −0.17 | −0.04 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Martin Necas C | 20:33 | −0.39 | −0.05 | −0.23 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 16:50 | −0.46 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Blackwood G | 59:13 | −2.98 |
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Connor L | 19:55 | 2 | +0.75 | +0.14 | +0.65 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Perfetti C | 19:02 | 1 | +0.47 | +0.15 | +0.31 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Scheifele C | 22:18 | 2 | +0.41 | +0.16 | −0.05 | +0.35 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| John St. Ivany D | 14:16 | +0.22 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Samberg D | 25:25 | 2 | +0.17 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.34 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan DeMelo D | 20:38 | +0.11 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 23:36 | +0.09 | +0.17 | −0.00 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Neal Pionk D | 23:10 | 1 | +0.06 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Gabriel Vilardi C | 14:21 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Morgan Barron C | 17:25 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Lowry C | 14:49 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Viggo Björck C | 13:40 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Isak Rosen R | 10:15 | −0.16 | −0.05 | −0.09 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Morrissey D | 9:32 | −0.18 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Iafallo L | 15:24 | −0.20 | −0.06 | −0.11 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Koepke L | 12:46 | −0.21 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Lambert C | 9:36 | −0.22 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 11:52 | −0.23 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Stuart Skinner G | 60:00 | +0.31 |
One game is a tiny sample: a single goal against on a player’s shift or a lucky finish moves his net goals a lot, so don’t trade anyone over a rough night. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they’re built.