FLA beat LAK 2–1. FLA also won the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 1.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Matthew Tkachuk scored at 11:20 of the third, moving FLA’s win probability from 48% to 82%. Jacob Markstrom saved 1.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | FLA–LAK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 19:00 |  LAK | Alex Laferriere from Erik Haula | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 3:49 |  FLA | Seth Jones from Lars Eller | 1–1 | 27% → 47% |
| P3 11:20 | FLA | Matthew Tkachuk from Sam Bennett | 2–1 | 48% → 82% |
Every player
Show both lineups
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seth Jones D | 25:33 | 1 | +0.41 | +0.13 | +0.36 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Gustav Forsling D | 21:22 | +0.38 | +0.33 | −0.02 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 12:56 | 1 | +0.36 | +0.17 | −0.00 | +0.21 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 21:25 | 1 | +0.31 | +0.07 | +0.37 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Garnet Hathaway R | 7:52 | +0.29 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Niko Mikkola D | 18:10 | +0.26 | +0.10 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 18:23 | +0.21 | +0.18 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 18:10 | +0.16 | +0.19 | −0.07 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Sandis Vilmanis L | 11:49 | +0.05 | +0.17 | −0.03 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radko Gudas D | 12:08 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Uvis Balinskis D | 14:13 | −0.02 | +0.11 | −0.02 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bokondji Imama L | 6:18 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anton Lundell C | 18:40 | −0.07 | +0.14 | −0.11 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Sam Bennett C | 19:29 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.05 | −0.09 | +0.18 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.07 | |
| Brad Marchand L | 9:36 | −0.21 | +0.04 | −0.21 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 17:12 | −0.21 | +0.04 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Reinhart C | 21:01 | −0.23 | −0.13 | −0.23 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.05 | ||
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 15:43 | −0.29 | +0.06 | −0.15 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 60:00 | +1.28 |
LAK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Ceci D | 16:11 | +0.27 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Laferriere R | 17:10 | 1 | +0.18 | −0.15 | +0.37 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Erik Haula L | 16:08 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.19 | −0.29 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Erik Gustafsson D | 14:59 | +0.07 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Armia R | 12:29 | +0.05 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Joel Edmundson D | 13:18 | +0.04 | +0.09 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Laughton C | 13:18 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.10 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Corey Perry R | 11:42 | −0.16 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Moore L | 16:12 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.12 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew Doughty D | 16:46 | −0.21 | −0.22 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Dumoulin D | 14:29 | −0.25 | −0.08 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikey Anderson D | 16:05 | −0.28 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mats Zuccarello C | 17:16 | −0.29 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adrian Kempe R | 21:42 | −0.30 | −0.27 | −0.15 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Quinton Byfield R | 21:10 | −0.33 | −0.27 | −0.00 | −0.10 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Alex Turcotte C | 11:29 | −0.50 | −0.26 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.04 | ||
| Brandt Clarke D | 19:15 | −0.59 | −0.37 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Artemi Panarin L | 20:25 | −0.68 | −0.26 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Darcy Kuemper G | 57:56 | +0.27 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.